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Author Topic: Video's obsolescence - Film's ultimate saviour? Ian Parfrey Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1049 From: Imbil Australia 26 deg 27' 42.66" S 152 deg 42' 23.40" E Registered: Feb 2009 posted 02-23-2009 02:59 PM                     The previous post about the trading in of "new" projectors for "old has got me thinking and I'd like to hear your opinions. The 35mm film standard has been around for literally over a hundred years. Film is interchangeable between countries and 70 year old prints can still be shown on modern equipment, with ever increasing quality. The video realm is a different kettle of fish. Formats not 10 years old are junked and new hardware must be bought to replace the old, regardless whether the "old" gear is functional or not. My question is this- Do you think film's "forever compatibility" will be 35mm's ultimate saving grace? It is a standard that has existed, and will continue to exist, for many years. The only obsolescence that 35mm will see will be at the hand of a system that will continue to make itself obsolete and ultimately cost exhibitors much more in the process. Thats not to say that video wont eventually take over from 35mm, it just seems strange to switch to a system that will be obsolete in 5 years.  |  IP: Logged James Westbrook Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1133 From: Lubbock, Texas, Usa Registered: Mar 2006 posted 02-24-2009 01:15 AM                     Personal observation: It's going to take a bit longer than 5 years to replace film in 90-some-odd percent of the venues in the US, much less the world. Maybe 10 if things fall more in the favor of the ones who want digital projection to succeed. If I was building a theatre now, I would go all film and plan to run that way for at least the next 10 years but get equipment that I know would last longer than that. There are disruptions in the digital installs, either a shortage of equipment or the financial problems one of the companies may or may not have - I promise film will still be prevalent in most locations 5 years from now.  |  IP: Logged Ian Parfrey Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1049 From: Imbil Australia 26 deg 27' 42.66" S 152 deg 42' 23.40" E Registered: Feb 2009 posted 02-24-2009 03:34 AM                     I should clarify that last paragraph in my post. I meant that video systems - eCinema and dCinema will be outdated in 5 years. I'm a firm believer in film lasting at least 10 years maybe more due to its inbuilt archival nature.  |  IP: Logged Monte L Fullmer Film God Posts: 8367 From: Nampa, Idaho, USA Registered: Nov 2004 posted 02-24-2009 05:40 AM                     quote: Ian Parfrey eCinema and dCinema will be outdated in 5 years Course, there will be outdated situations. These things are actually like computers with momboards, daughtercards, memory devices and added devices like light engines and such. This part of the spectrum will never be content where it's at when compared to film presentations and usage..since film definitely proven itself a worthy contendor to the entertaiment world. But, the human race loves changes with the new and exciting gadgetry to look forward to... -Monte  |  IP: Logged Mark Gulbrandsen Resident Trollmaster Posts: 16657 From: Music City Registered: Jun 99 posted 02-24-2009 08:01 AM                     quote: Ian Parfrey dCinema will be outdated in 5 years To someone that is blind to the technology that might be what one would think. Some of them are 4 years old now, a few of the first 2K units are slightly older then 5... Its highly doubtful they will go obsolete that fast. Even Dolby has publicly stated a minimum of 15 years of support for it's server. Like the DTS 6 that is now 16 years old and keeps getting support in one way or another... what does go obsolete is the firmware they run on but that is easily updated. Filum will become obsolete just by it's nature. The highly toxic chemicals it takes to make film, process film, and the sheer amount of space and expense to store it. So one might say that filum has a built in obsolescence factor!! While electronics on the other hand are becomming more ecologically friendly thannks in part to the Euro nations. Mark  |  IP: Logged Bill Enos Film God Posts: 2081 From: Richmond, Virginia, USA Registered: Apr 2000 posted 02-24-2009 09:19 AM                     Mark sort of covered one of the biggest problems with any widespread technology is that anything new almost has to be compatible with everything that came before it. [ 02-24-2009, 10:46 AM: Message edited by: Bill Enos ]  |  IP: Logged Scott Norwood Film God Posts: 8146 From: Boston, MA. USA (1774.21 miles northeast of Dallas) Registered: Jun 99 posted 02-24-2009 09:37 AM                        Mark makes an important point: a few targeted environmental regulations could significantly increase the cost of making film prints. This may hasten the conversion to , just as environmental regulations nearly killed mag striping. On the other hand, doesn't RoHS usually result in lower reliability and thus more "disposable" electronic equipment that takes up landfill space?  |  IP: Logged Frank Angel Film God Posts: 5305 From: Brooklyn NY USA Registered: Dec 1999 posted 02-24-2009 10:14 AM                        Hmmm, if the way Hollywood has been able to continually manipulate the system to get the Copyright law morphed to their own advantage, I have no doubt that they could just as easily, by plying the right judges and lawmakers with wine woman (or men or both) and money, get environmental laws implemented that would do just as Scott suggests -- target film manufacturing and its disposition to make it so expensive that it's priced out of the market. All of a sudden the film industry will be all gung-ho for very specific environmental issues -- the ones that benefit their digital agenda. And given politicians' penchant for being "green" nowadays, the studios won't have to do very much to get them to go along with a bias against film.  |  IP: Logged Louis Bornwasser Film God Posts: 4441 From: prospect ky usa Registered: Mar 2005 posted 02-24-2009 02:20 PM                        Film has eliminated most really toxic (heavy metal) chemicals; that was the point of cyan tracks. Any new system has obsolesence as its primary problem. That problem has caused much hesitance for the digital conversion and is its most pressing problem. This obsolence is driven primarily by the studios and its anti-piracy viewpoint. Dolby has been the lone guarantor of non-obsolescence, but only for its own equipment. Kudos to them!!! No one else!!! Perhaps we need to be able to purchase "non-obsolescence insurance". . . . .oh, wait. . . .we have it. . . .it's called film! Louis  |  IP: Logged Bob Jones Film Handler Posts: 47 From: Atlanta, GA Registered: Jun 2003 posted 02-25-2009 01:59 AM                     I love this topic!!! And it is my opinion - supported by other industry prognosticators - that the digital conversion is supporting a "behind the scenes" move to return to vertical integration within the production/distribution/exhibition arms. This is one of the last areas that has not been deregulated - and it is only a matter of time. The thought is - that while exhibitors are now able to benefit from incentives ultimately passed down by Studios in the conversion - these are one-time only deals - and the fact is that Digital Technology will be more expensive to operate, maintain, and upgrade -- it is inevitable - that these systems will require updating/upgrading - from hardware to firmware -- (How many of you are using the same computers and video projectors that are 7-10 years old). Exhibitors are being hit everyday with measures which decrease their EBITA earnings. And the profit margins are not that great. THE PUBLIC WILL STILL CLAMOR FOR THE "MOVIE THEATRE" AND HOLLYWOOD REALIZES IT HAS TO HAVE IT TO MARKET AND PRODUCE "MOVIE STARS" - After all - the cost of exhibition is a mere marketing cost - to help then MAKE ALL THE REAL MONEY via all the ancillary avenues. So - in order to give the public what they want - the only people who will be able to "save" the experience is the studios - but in order to make it work - they will then need to own the theatres - and get 100% from both boxoffice and the real money maker - the concessions. This will be the only way to "make the numbers work." If this sounds too wild -- sit back and watch. The studios already have majority positions in many of the foreign circuits.  |  IP: Logged Julio Roberto Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 938 From: Madrid, Madrid, Spain Registered: Oct 2008 posted 02-25-2009 06:47 AM                    If I were a (large) movie studio, I would certainly go for the vertical integration. Produce, distribute, exhibit. No need for intermediaries, specially in an "all-digital" world of the future. Film (as we know it) will eventually "dissapear", just as 35mm still photography has "dissapeared" today (or soon will). This, of course, doesn't mean that it will "fully" dissapear, as it's a heck of an archival method and may have a very small, specialized market in that position. Most-all-movies movies today are digital at some point (DI, DVD or blu-ray masters, etc). While it makes sense to put them out in a negative (or separation matrix) for archival and storage, it certainly doesn't make sense to do so as an exhibition method. Heavy and expensive and takes a lot of space. Shoot your movie, your choice of film or digital, digitize it, edit/tweak-it/finish it in DI, print it out to a neg for archival, and send it around DCI'ed for exhibition. 100 years from now, if someone wants to recover it, all they have to do is re-scan your archival negatives in whatever the future allows (i.e. 8K 16bits) and in whatever format they use for storage/exhibition (i.e. solid state "credit cards"). It is true that the majors have been investing HEAVY into exhibition in Europe, with some of them opening enormous fully-owned chains in overcrowded markets that only makes sense to enter if you have some long-term strategy to drive everybody else out of business. I do think that exhibition is but an "unwanted necessity" of the studios of the future, where digital instant distribution (rent, pay-per-view, itune stores, on demand-delivery, direct-to-theaters-satellite, etc) is what they are really after and independent exhibitors won't be but an inconvinience as they will not be able to "catch up" with technologies that will allow studios make an impact with their products on people's minds and their wish to purchase their products (stars/movies/merchandising). When technology costs allows, they are gonna want 4K. Then, they are wanna want "Imax 8K". Multi-channel sound (read SDDS-done-right). 3D. 4D? Anything to brainwash Average Joe's senses into wanting to buy Lord of the Rings videogames and T-shirts. Now, all this doesn't mean that it will happen tomorrow. And if exhibitors withold the Digital-bug like they are doing and distributors don't start to pony-up for the convertion, film may indeed have a healthy run for the next 10+ years in exhibition. About old movies ... well, exhibition prints are fairly rare already (at least in Europe). Most of the time they only have TV-grade storage prints available. Sometimes, even all release prints are lost. Only making sense to strike new ones if there is huge demand. Fact that most are dubbed/subtitled into each countrie's language makes storage and muti-stock management a pain. In that sense, 35mm is LESS "universal" than digital masters, where a single D1 or D5 master could have i.e. two stereo soundtracks in multiple languages for satellite simulcast or chosen by the operator (i.e. it was common to have Spanish-portuguese for satellite delivery to the Iberian Peninsula satellite footprint). But with HD finally kicking off, a lot of new transfers need to be made anyway for HD sindication and blu-ray re-releases, so it's a good time to do a 2K or 4K storage master. It costs very little to convert it to a DCI package for release, so who knows. Maybe old titles will start to be available again digitally to anyone who wishes. But Hollywood's business is NOT showing a 70mm print of My Fair Lady a couple of weeks a year in a theatre or two in a revival. I have the feeling for them it's more of a nuisance and a bit of marketing to keep their properties more current and valuable rather than a real-business. I think small exhibitors have a place in all this picture, but I have the feeling the place majors have reserved in the (far) future is that of a small-town remote operators to reach "rural" areas  |  IP: Logged Mark Gulbrandsen Resident Trollmaster Posts: 16657 From: Music City Registered: Jun 99 posted 02-25-2009 08:25 AM                     quote: Scott Norwood On the other hand, doesn't RoHS usually result in lower reliability and thus more "disposable" electronic equipment that takes up landfill space? There were problems at first but those problems seem to have been delt with satisfactorly. In fact the "tin wiskers" problem seems to have also vanished as a result of PBO free. The biggest remaining problem that seems to be around is the poor quality of switch contacts. Fortunately modern gear doesn't use relays any more but there are still switches. quote: Louis Bornwasser Film has eliminated most really toxic (heavy metal) chemicals; that was the point of cyan tracks. There are still many nasties used in processing and printing film of all sorts. Even more in the manufacture of film... at least in the latter some of that is now recovered and or re-cycled but still not enouigh to make it a pollution free system. Kodak has already shut down quite a large number of it's film coating facilities and as demand for release prints declines over the next 5 to 7 years the cost of film prints will become prohibitively expensive to manufacture AND process. In 10 to 12 years release prints will become an odd curiosity that are only able to be played at a few special locations still equipped for such a thing. Mark  |  IP: Logged Paul Gordon Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 580 From: Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Registered: Aug 2005 posted 02-26-2009 10:50 AM                        The major problem with digital only formats is not exibition but preservation and storage. It costs nearly 12 times the cost to preserve all the film elements digitally then tradtionally on film. Plus you have the added problem or contiunal migration of the files to keep the formats up to date. This is going to be a nightmare with huge losses of data over the years. Maybe complete films lost. The governemnet already has this problem with archiving email and digital files... the 90's and 2000's will be the most poorly documented decades in all of modern history because of this.  |  IP: Logged Louis Bornwasser Film God Posts: 4441 From: prospect ky usa Registered: Mar 2005 posted 02-26-2009 03:47 PM                        This is a very appropriate discussion! Thanks! LOuis  |  IP: Logged Mark Gulbrandsen Resident Trollmaster Posts: 16657 From: Music City Registered: Jun 99 posted 02-26-2009 03:53 PM                     quote: Paul Gordon This is going to be a nightmare with huge losses of data over the years. Maybe complete films lost. Only if proper plans for preserving a given filum are not made in the first place. You can bet that any big time filum is going to get what ever it takes to be preserved while most of the filums made today are very definately NOT worth preserving at all. It may be that filum finds a small niche in preservation for a while after it's theatrical demise but I believe that in the near future data will be preserved optically in glass plates or the like. Somethinglike on Star Trek... its definately not too outlandish in this day and age. But very definately a whole new preservation standard for archiving digital files will have to be developed and strictly adheared to. Just keep in mind that 2K D-Cinema was an impossibility just 7 years ago! Mark  |  IP: Logged

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