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This topic comprises 3 pages: 1 2 3
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Author
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Topic: No Blu-Ray DVD?
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Phil Hill
I love my cootie bug
Posts: 7595
From: Hollywood, CA USA
Registered: Mar 2000
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posted 11-30-2004 01:44 AM
Here we go again... the HD-DVD version of Beta vs. VHS... (I smell Beta, SDDS, etc... AGAIN!)
From Variety
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Posted: Mon., Nov. 29, 2004, 11:29am PT
Billions at disc risk
Opposing studios say no way to Sony's Blu-ray format
By BEN FRITZ, PAUL SWEETING
The biz is bracing for Betamax -- the sequel.
In a decision reminiscent of the tech conflict that changed the industry forever, three studios -- Warner, Universal and Paramount -- have taken sides in a battle for the next-generation DVD market by endorsing a format, HD DVD, that will compete with one backed by Sony.
Decision means that starting next fall, consumers will be faced with high-definition DVDs with similar features but two incompatible formats.
Backing HD DVD's competitor, Blu-ray, will be the 8,000 pic library of Sony and its soon-to-be partner, MGM. Sony and MGM had a combined 19% of the DVD market through October, while Par, U and WB accounted for 41%.
Putting the Lion in the Blu-ray camp was a significant reason behind the Sony-led consortium's agreement to acquire the studio for $5 billion.
Toshiba, the main tech company behind HD DVD, is believed to have joined with Time Warner to back a last minute unsuccessful bid for MGM for the same reason.
Yet to declare their allegiances are Disney, Fox, DreamWorks and Lions Gate. New Line and HBO are aligned with their sister company and DVD distributor Warner.
At stake are billions of dollars in patent and copyright fees and tens of billions of dollars in consumer spending on movies, TV shows, music and videogames. Any confusion in the marketplace by consumers could delay and possibly derail anticipated incremental revenue that could mirror the windfall enjoyed by the introduction of DVD.
HD DVD releases are expected to start by the fourth quarter of next year, along with the first players, and will include a mix of new releases and library titles that should reach several dozen from each studio. Blu-ray machines and discs, meanwhile, likely won't hit the market until 2006.
Such plans are based on the assumption that consumers will adopt high-def DVDs aggressively, as they did when shifting from VHS to DVD.
Convincing consumers
One major problem studios have is convincing consumers that a new player and more expensive discs will be worth the investment. High-def DVDs offer around six times as much storage capacity as current DVDs and allow for interactivity through broadband Internet connections, but studios have yet to figure out what they'll do with the storage beyond vague plans for more content and shipping entire seasons of a TV show on fewer discs.
Next-generation DVD players are expected to cost around $1000 when they launch late next year, with prices falling quickly as has happened to current players. Discs are expected to cost $5 or $10 more each.
Biggest draw may be the higher video quality hi-def DVDs enable. But to really see the difference, consumers will also have to purchase digital televisions. Over 13 million are in the U.S. market so far, with the Consumer Electronics Assn. predicting that over 10 million more will be sold next year.
Studios are eager to push the new formats to generate new revenue -- and because of their more robust copy protection. While current DVDs are relatively easy to hack, high-def discs are considered by tech experts to be nearly invulnerable, which could put a dent in film piracy.
No surprise
Warner's announcement came as little surprise, since Time Warner holds some of the patents and copyrights behind the HD DVD format, along with Toshiba and others. In addition, the format was championed by former Warner Home Video president Warren Lieberfarb, now a consultant to Toshiba.
It's widely believed that Par and U were seeking cash and other incentives from both groups and that at least one of the uncommitted studios is still holding out for a more lucrative incentive. Insiders suggested that more than one studio was offered as much as $30 million, but the three studios involved in the announcements Monday say they did not receive any cash incentives.
One studio exec suggested that his studio did, however, receive a break on royalty fees. And according to one player close to the negotiations, Par and U almost certainly won either financial consideration or a change in the technology to their liking in order to make an early commitment.
Leveraging both sides
Many believe Fox and Disney are hoping to use the leverage of an undecided position to push both technologies to adopt features they prefer. Fox is currently working with the organizations developing both formats.
"Fox and Disney don't want to endorse a format until they have used up all of their political capital to influence it coming out the way they want," observed Paul Kocher, prexy of content protection company Cryptography Research.
The launch of competing and incompatible formats for the same new product is viewed almost unanimously as a scenario that could lead to an unsuccessful launch of the format.
After years of costly fighting in front of consumers, Sony lost the original homevideo format war in the 1980s when its Betamax could not stand up against the less expensive VHS vidcassette that also offered more recording time.
Format divide
The downside for consumers with competing formats is that many movies will be made available only in one format or the other. So far no studio other than Sony has said it will produce programming exclusively for one format or the other, but economics will likely make that a de facto situation.
"We will let the consumer be our guide, but right now we do not plan to release product in Blu-ray," Universal Studios Home Entertainment president Craig Kornblau said. "Our priority is HD DVD."
Execs at studios choosing HD DVD Monday said the lower cost of transitioning current DVD manufacturing plants to the other format was a key driver of the decision.
"It's simply a less expensive product to replicate," said Paramount worldwide home entertainment prexy Thomas Lesinski, a former lieutenant of Lieberfarb's at Warner. "We won't have to amortize the costs of retooling factories."
Anxious to get on with it
After initially dragging their feet on a next-generation format, the studios now seem anxious to accelerate the transition from standard to high-definition DVD. Beyond piracy protection, they're also hopeful it can help raise margins in the face of cost-cutting by big retailers like Wal-Mart, as well as jumpstart some foreign markets.
"I don't think we've fully monetized our assets in standard definition in a number of countries," said Warner Home Video prexy Jim Cardwell. "There are still territories where DVD penetration is well behind the U.S."
Blu-ray supporters, meanwhile, expressed confidence that studios would come back their way and seized on piracy concerns as an advantage.
"The difference is that we rely on a whole new manufacturing process, and the (licensing) standards are going to be much stricter in the beginning," said Sony homevid prexy Ben Feingold. "You're not going to have every replicator in the world selling pirated product out the back door."
Faster take-up?
Feingold also noted that Blu-ray has a broader commitment from hardware makers right now than does HD DVD, meaning the installed base of Blu-ray players will likely ramp up more quickly.
In addition to consumer electronics companies, computer makers Dell and HP plan to introduce PC-based Blu-ray disc drives next year. Sony also plans to base its next-generation PlayStation console around Blu-ray, potentially adding millions of playback devices when it launches in 2006.
HD DVD backers have said they hope to get Microsoft to use their format in the next version of Xbox, but the tech giant hasn't made any decisions yet.
(Scott Hettrick contributed to this report.)
Read the full article at:
http://www.variety.com/story.asp?l=story&a=VR1117914089&c=20
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Joe Redifer
You need a beating today
Posts: 12859
From: Denver, Colorado
Registered: May 99
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posted 11-30-2004 04:00 AM
A moron wrote that article. And Scott Hettrick contributed to being a moron. First of all, I don't know why everyone in the world thinks Blu-Ray is all Sony. Sony Sony Sony. Panasonic owns more financial investments in Blu-Ray than Sony does. There are also some dumb comments in the article, like:
quote: Variety
High-def DVDs offer around six times as much storage capacity as current DVDs and allow for interactivity through broadband Internet connections, but studios have yet to figure out what they'll do with the storage beyond vague plans for more content and shipping entire seasons of a TV show on fewer discs.
Hmmmm... maybe fill it with HIGH DEFINITION VIDEO PERHAPS? The article assumes that HD video takes up the same amount of space as regular PD (Pathetic Definition) video.
quote: Variety
Biggest draw may be the higher video quality hi-def DVDs enable.
Geee... ya think? If the author's stupidity was toilet paper I'd be wiping my ass for decades!
quote: Variety
Studios are eager to push the new formats to generate new revenue -- and because of their more robust copy protection.
You can suck my balls, studios (and MPAA for good measure)! Price them right, and there will be no need for piracy. But we all know you'd rape your own moms for an extra dollar. That's what the studio execs are all about!
quote: Variety
The launch of competing and incompatible formats for the same new product is viewed almost unanimously as a scenario that could lead to an unsuccessful launch of the format.
Oh yeah, home video recorders do soooo poorly. Oh and DVDs vs DivX. Yeah, nobody's watching movies on disc these days. And let's not forget about home camcorders! What, we had VHS, VHS-C, S-VHS, S-VHS-C, 8mm, Hi8, MiniDV and who knows what else. Way too many formats! That's why the public as a whole never bought into the whole idea of home video cameras. And let's not even get into the subject of videogames which have at least 3 different, incompatible platforms on the market at any one time and games that cost waaaay more than DVDs. Naw, videogames never did well... that's why they're only a multi-billion dollar a year industry.
Anyway, I sure hope Blu-Ray wins, because it is by far the better format. I don't like the limitations of HD-DVD. Limitations are retarded. And plus, there's not exactly gonna be a mad rush for either format, even if there was only one and it was cheap. Most asswipes are perfectly happy with normal DVDs and in fact think that normal DVDs are high definition! They wouldn't be conned into buying something that costs more that won't play on their machine, despite the limited intelligence of the average consumer. Good luck, both parties... you'll need it!
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Dave Williams
Wet nipple scene
Posts: 1836
From: Salt Lake City, UT, USA
Registered: Jan 2000
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posted 11-30-2004 08:02 AM
quote: Phil Hill
Such plans are based on the assumption that consumers will adopt high-def DVDs aggressively, as they did when shifting from VHS to DVD.
What a crock of crap! It took years for people to adopt DVD. In fact they still make VHS copies of everything, and it wasn't until last year or so that DVD production finally outdid VHS production in pre-recorded media.
People are wary of new technology coming out too quickly. Most people are still just getting used to thier DVD's to want to update to any further format. Most people still can't afford to buy all those DVD's and then will be forced to buy a more expensive version, when they still have crappy tv's to show them on.
Instead of VHS/Betamax, this reminds me of INTEL, plain and simple. It was a matter of mere months when they went from Pentium 2, to pentium 3, to Celeron, to dual pentium 3, to pentium 4, to pentium doritos's, to pentium pokemon, and so on. They nearly advanced themselves into oblivion putting that much technology out that fast. People need YEARS to digest it all before moving forward.
I am still running a Celeron 600, because THATS ALL I NEED AT THIS JUNCTURE IN MY LIFE. I still use a 20 year old piece of crap tv because for the same reason as listed above. While the new tech dvd's would be really NEATO, i dont need them. And like most people, won't need them for about six years.
My thoughts is that people will not gobble up either format, and that blu ray will eventually win the fight, but will take years to do it. You will not see blu ray soaking up the dvd market until about 2015, when it will finally out produce the standard dvd.
This is about the same amount of time it took for DVD to do that to VHS. So why is anyone caring half a rats anything anyway?
Another reason this is nothing like VHS Betamax, is that when the VHS Betamax fight was waged, people did NOT HAVE any movie recording format or way to view movies at home. This was new so the technology had to fight it out for dominance.
WHen dvd outdid VHS, it was slow and methodical, not quick by any means. It took nine years from its introduction to out do it, and still VHS is in the market. You will see standard DVD product in the market until 2025.
Remember how long it took CD's to take hold from vinyl and compact cassette tape? And you can still find vinyl in special release editions, not sure about tapes though.
So DVD owners feel safe. You have about 20 years or so to get used to bluray.
Ciao baby
Dave
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 11-30-2004 01:19 PM
The biggest problem facing HD-DVD is the relatively low installed base of high definition televisions. There are very few CRT-based or LCD-screen "digital TV ready" monitors worth a damn on the market. You've gotta spend at least $2000 or more to get a product that is going to be somewhat satisfactory. Add to this the $1000-ish prices HD-DVD may feature in its "early adopter" phase.
The Blu-Ray camp is making a smart move in getting the #1 and #2 largest computer makers (HP/Compaq and Dell) involved. One of the areas where Blu-Ray stomps the crap out of HD-DVD is data capacity. A Blu-Ray disc can hold a lot more data and transfer a higher video bitrate. By comparison, HD-DVD seems more like a repackaged version of regular DVD, just with adding only a few megs more of bandwidth and severely increasing data compression ratios.
IMHO, the HD-DVD guys are risking that format becoming another DVD-A niche thing that interests next to no one. I say this because some of the folks choosing HD-DVD also want the format to be highly restrictive and limited in use. Blu Ray is more forward looking format in that Sony and others are marketing it to have more uses than just a high definition video playback format. The Blu Ray camp also seems to be the only group providing a timeline for big improvements, such as 200GB discs.
I think Sony should try to make some other deals, particularly with Apple Computer. Apple's marketing muscle would help the format and tie Blu-Ray use into professional video production and digital content creation. Sony and Panasonic could develop cameras and other hardware directed at Blu-Ray. Apple could integrate Blu-Ray authoring into their killer apps like Final Cut Pro HD and DVD Studio Pro. These kinds of moves would build up the prestige factor of Blu Ray as the superior format. And then those developments could trickle down into the consumer end level where HP/Compaq and Dell are positioned. There is a lot more money in that game than what pre-recorded DVD sales have to offer.
I also have a chuckle a bit about the HD-DVD people talking about getting Microsoft on their side. Hmmm. Why would Microsoft want to do that? The movie industry only seems to want to make moves that would screw up computer hardware sales and other moronic shit like that. Dell, HP/Compaq and even Sony mean more to Microsoft than some Hollywood big wigs. So, if anything, the next version of X-Box might be more likely to feature a Blu-Ray drive in it than an HD-DVD drive.
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Mark Gulbrandsen
Resident Trollmaster
Posts: 16657
From: Music City
Registered: Jun 99
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posted 12-09-2004 11:02 PM
No Blue Ray ha.... this ought to kelp it along nicely......
Mark
CNN Article
Disney backs Sony's DVD format
Thursday, December 9, 2004 Posted: 9:42 AM EST (1442 GMT)
LOS ANGELES, California/TOKYO, Japan (Reuters) -- Walt Disney Co. said on Wednesday it would support the Blu-ray standard for next-generation DVDs backed by Sony Corp., but kept open its options for a rival format championed by Toshiba Corp.
Sony, Dell Inc. and several other giants of the electronics and computer industries developed Blu-ray technology. Toshiba, with NEC Corp. and Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd., is backing a competing standard dubbed HD DVD.
The high-definition HD DVD and Blu-ray technologies use blue lasers, which have shorter wavelengths than conventional red lasers and allow discs to store more data, producing the clearer and sharper pictures of high-definition films and TV.
Disney said it would start releasing movies on the Blu-ray format as soon as players became available in North America and Japan, which strategic planning chief Peter Murphy said he expected in 2006.
"Everyone is looking for the right format ... to release their content. That is a combination of consumer adoption of the players and the platform, content protection, and adequate capacity. We think Blu-ray is there," Murphy told Reuters in a phone interview.
Murphy said the agreement with Blu-ray was non-exclusive and that Disney would release content in other formats if they met the studio's criteria for consumer adoption, content capacity and copyright protection.
CLSA Asia Pacific Markets analyst Carlos Dimas said the announcement could be viewed as a positive for Blu-ray, but not a slam-dunk.
"It's positive, but it has not put Sony significantly ahead of the HD DVD standard. It continues to be a contest," he said.
Disney's announcement comes nearly two weeks after Toshiba said it had won support from Warner Bros, New Line Cinema, Paramount Pictures and Universal Pictures, representing about 45 percent of Hollywood's U.S. sales of prepackaged DVDs.
Support from U.S. film studios is vital in the format battle, just as it was when the VHS standard prevailed over Sony's Betamax two decades ago.
Blu-ray also has the support of Sony Pictures and the tacit backing of Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc., recently acquired by a Sony-led consortium.
It is also counting on Fox Entertainment Group Inc.'s Twentieth Century Fox, which recently joined the Blu-ray Disc Association board, but a Fox spokesman said the studio was still evaluating both formats and had not committed to either.
Assuming Fox's support and adding Disney with its market share of 17.2 percent, Blu-ray would have 47 percent of Hollywood's prepackaged DVD sales, according to industry data provided by Toshiba for the six months to June 30.
Disney said it would become the 15th member of the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA), which promotes the format.
"This is a big step for the BDA," said Sony spokesman Taro Takamine.
Shares of Sony were boosted by the news, rising 1.05 percent to 3,840 yen by the midday break and outperforming the Nikkei average's 1.22 percent decline. Toshiba was unchanged at 444 yen.
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 12-22-2004 09:39 AM
I don't know. I kinda smell a similar situation brewing between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD that already exists in the video game console industry. Most console titles being released these days get released for Playstation2, X-Box and even Nintendo's Game Cube. There's not very many exclusives out there for any single gaming platform.
With that said, there's really nothing to stop a movie company from releasing a movie in both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray formats. Thompson Consumer Electronics has stated they're looking at making DVD players that will play both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD discs.
Blu-Ray is without any doubt whatsoever the technically superior format. So it seems pretty likely that any multi-format movie release will look better on its Blu-Ray version, particularly over the significantly higher video bitrates.
Movie studios may indeed be forced to release videos on both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray formats to get millions of customers off the fences and into the HD upgrade path. They're not going to buy if they feel their electronics investment isn't safe. Most will avoid the products if a bitter, entrenched format war occurs. The "coexistence" angle is more reasonable. Of course, the greedy bastards at the center of the format war in the first place won't make as much money over the deal, but they can get fucked anyway.
quote: Dylan Marchetti
We're the informed crowd, the movie geeks, and the technophiles- we know how much better the HD video's going to look and how nice the uncompressed sound is going to be.
I haven't heard anything about HD-DVD and Blu-Ray supporting uncompressed LPCM surround. It especially seems very unlikely under the HD-DVD format, given its rather paltry 15Mb/s peak bitrate maximum (which is only half the average bitrate of D-VHS). The Dolby Digital and DTS audio standards are mandatory standards in Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. All Blu-Ray and HD-DVD players must have built-in support for both. I don't know where other audio standards like SACD, DVD-A, etc. fit in with all of that.
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