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This topic comprises 2 pages: 1 2
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Author
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Topic: LOTR blu ray?
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 05-04-2008 02:23 PM
The Lord of the Rings Trilogy is not coming out on Blu-ray anytime soon. At the very least, expect to wait a couple of years.
My own guess is Warner Bros./New Line will wait until The Hobbit arrives in movie theaters before releasing the LOTR movies on Blu-ray. That's probably going to be sometime in 2010.
The latest word on The Hobbit is Peter Jackson will be an executive producer and Guillermo del Toro (Hellboy, Pan's Labyrinth) will direct. The Hobbit is also set to be released in 2 parts. Part 1 is tentatively scheduled for a 2010 release. Part 2 is scheduled for 2011.
There is also a possibility Warner Bros. and New Line could wait on releasing the LOTR trilogy on Blu-ray until the Hobbit movies come out on video as well. I don't think that would be a good strategy. A Blu-ray release of LOTR just ahead of The Hobbit theatrical release would make more sense.
The installed market base of Blu-ray is also still relatively small. Major sagas like the LOTR trilogy or Star Wars aren't going to arrive on the format until the market has grown to a satisfactory size. I think some major growth for Blu-ray is going to occur this fall as the movies of summer 2008 arrive on the format and the variety of price level of the players improves.
But even if Blu-ray sells like crazy this fall, it's still going to take at least another year of growth before studios release well-polished "tent pole" catalog titles on the format. For the time being, the main thing that will grow the Blu-ray market is new releases.
There is a decent chance all the Indiana Jones movies could be released on Blu-ray for the holiday season in support of the new Indy installment arriving in theaters this month. Warner Bros. is finally going to get The Matrix onto Blu-ray this fall as well (it was previously available on HD-DVD).
One more thing, I think it's becoming clear that studios will have to put some serious work into creating Blu-ray versions of classic movies and popular catalog titles. Most new movie releases use digital intermediate techniques in post production, which I think makes it easier to get such movies transferred over to the Blu-ray format. Older movies may need what amounts to a completely new "digital restoration" to look good on the format.
Fortunately, The Lord of the Rings trilogy was originally post produced with a 2K digital intermediate. As long as those 2K data files are still intact, the process of getting those movies onto Blu-ray shouldn't be any different than the process is for any new movie.
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Scott Jentsch
Phenomenal Film Handler
Posts: 1061
From: New Berlin, WI, USA
Registered: Apr 2003
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posted 05-05-2008 11:20 AM
Even though there were statements by the VC-1 encoders on the AVS Forums that the Extended Editions were being chewed on to see if they could fit onto a 30GB disc (they could, with good results according to them), nothing was ever released as far as a schedule or solid plans.
New Line is in such turmoil right now, even if the movies were ready, I think there are too many distractions surrounding their absorption into Warner Bros. for anything useful to happen in the near future.
On top of that, it still seems that the studios are trying to figure out how they want to handle high definition releases. Here we are, more than two years after the release of the first high definition disc format, and the studios still haven't hit their stride on releases.
It might be a chicken-and-egg issue where the studios aren't kicking it into high gear because the market isn't large enough, and/or the hardware isn't selling because there aren't enough compelling titles available for the format. Either way, we're moving slowly, and we can only hope that the momentum continues to build.
I think Bobby is right that there will be some tie-ins with The Hobbit movies (there are two of them). I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they take another run at theatrical releases of the LOTR movies before the theatrical release of Hobbit #1 in December 2010. Then, when #1 goes to video the following summer/fall, they could do all sorts of bundling and packaging to build the hype for #2 the following December.
The LOTR movies will sell well on Blu-ray, but not nearly as well as if they were released when the hardware prices are lower so that their release can be maximized. A bundled deal of all three LOTR:EE movies for $100 isn't too much (with the appropriate extras, of course), but when the players are still $400, the total price of admission for someone not yet into Blu-ray is too high.
As anxious as I am to see these movies in HD, the lack of any mentions from New Line/WB and the current Blu-ray market means that we won't be seeing them anytime soon, IMHO. ![[Frown]](frown.gif)
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 05-05-2008 03:23 PM
If the LOTR trilogy arrives on Blu-ray around 2010, the price of Blu-ray players won't be much of an issue with customers. By that time 2 years from now new DVD players will start to become a pretty rare thing in retail stores.
Right now the prices of standalone Blu-ray players are ridiculous. Playstation 3 is selling much better since it has more capability and more features for a price equal to or lower than many of those profile 1.0 and 1.1 players.
Prices are definitely going to go lower this fall as more new player models arrive on the market. But I don't expect Blu-ray players to go below the $100 price level anytime soon. Dollar inflation is one factor working against that. The other is electronics companies don't want to totally ruin their profit margins like they did with low cost DVD players.
quote: Scott Jentsch
On top of that, it still seems that the studios are trying to figure out how they want to handle high definition releases. Here we are, more than two years after the release of the first high definition disc format, and the studios still haven't hit their stride on releases.
One of the biggest problems is a lack of BD replication capacity.
The few BD capable disc replication plants are all booked up solid with a giant backlog of movie encoding and replication work. This summer's big movies are a top priority. That's causing other projects like complex TV series box sets to get pushed off well into 2009.
It's certain more BD replication plants will have to be brought into service because the demand is only going to grow a great deal more. This summer's movies will provide one big boost to Blu-ray sales. The other is likely to come from lots of people buying HDTV monitors in advance of analog TV broadcasts turning off next February.
Aside from the LOTR issue, there's a good number of quality catalog titles coming out on Blu-ray pretty soon. I'll probably buy the BD versions of Patton, Dirty Harry, and Men in Black in June. I think I may just rent the BDs of Cloverfield and There Will Be Blood. I'm looking forward to the Blu-ray version of Dark City, but hope a good job is done transferring it to 1080p HD.
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Mike Blakesley
Film God
Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99
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posted 05-06-2008 01:28 AM
quote: Bobby Henderson
As long as members of the Blu-Ray forum (or whatever their group is called) continue to collude together -yes, I said collude- they can protect prices from suffering a free fall despite any demands that come from Wal-Mart.
I don't think so. Wal-Mart gets exactly what they want, or they don't put the item on their shelves. The manufacturers are so eager to sell millions of items and boost their sales figures, they'll happily lose money doing it because they think it looks better to sell a billion gadgets and lose money, than to sell only a million and be the 10th place manufacturer in the marketplace. (Or the other scenario -- they farm the manufacturing out to China and cut quality. That's another thing Wal-mart has done to this country -- showered it with shoddy crap in the name of low prices.)
They may not be able to get sub-$100 Blu-Rays, but you can bet they'll be the lowest price out there or close to it, and whatever maker they're dealing with will lose money on the deal but will celebrate because they're moving so many units.
My wife works for a bank. This bank had branches in about a half-dozen Wal-marts around Montana and Wyoming. The relationship cost the bank so much money, they finally pulled out of all the Wal-Marts. Her boss said, "It's impossible to make any money doing business with Wal-Mart."
The only thing stopping Blu-Ray player prices from dropping like a lead balloon is the fact it has such small market share - so far. Once the average price of a player gets to maybe around $200, and once lots of standard players start wearing out, and providing internet or other electronic delivery doesn't catch fire, you'll see the cheapo Blu-rays all over the place like flies in the summer. Same thing that happens with all mass-market electronic products.
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