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This topic comprises 2 pages: 1 2
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Author
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Topic: Digital Equipment Useful Life
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Steve Guttag
We forgot the crackers Gromit!!!
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Posts: 12814
From: Annapolis, MD
Registered: Dec 1999
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posted 04-04-2010 07:34 AM
It is a guess at this point.
Typical electronics have a 7-10 year useful life...that is, before technology typically makes it seem hopelessly outdated, regardless of if it continues to work, or not.
There is also the issue of being able to repair 7-10 year old electronics. Things change so fast, especially with emerging technology that one can't necessarily support it due to the lack of availability of parts. That is, perhaps a critical processor is no longer manufactured since it is so far out of date. Thus, a product maker may face the choice of a costly redesign of obsolete product or merely pulling the plug and requiring replacement.
An advantage of standards, like SMPTE and DCI is that you have many entities trying to making conforming devices. This tends to reduce obsolescence some as there are going to be common items and also the use to stale and multi-source technology. This tends to be more stable.
That said, we will never enjoy the stability we had with film as it was electromechanical. A good machine shop can create most anything in a film projector. There is a reason why people can STILL use film projectors that went OUT OF PRODUCTION in excess of 50-years ago.
Anyone thinking that their DCinema equipment is still going to be viable 7-10 years after purchase is fooling themselves and the likelihood of it being viable 15-years after purchase goes down geometrically. Will it still work? That is another story. I suspect, many of them might.
We have three 1.3K DCinema projectors still in service (Barco DP50). They are no longer viable DCinema projectors as no studio will make content for them. However, 7 years after their installation, they still perform 7-days a week doing traditional A/V projector work. Very few parts have been needed...after the first year (where a couple of color boards did have issues), we have had to replace one mirror (folding after the integrating rod) and one fan. Not a bad service record (though I can now hear the sounds of more fans that will likely need replacement). It would not surprise me if a board fails, we will be told that it is no longer serviceable or that the board cost would exceed the value of the projector now.
I think that the industry is going to see a progressive abandonment of the Series 1 2K projectors now that series 2 is here. Series 2 is the first DCI compliant projector and that is likely where the cut-off will be. Hopefully, the projector manufacturers changed the least they could between series 1 and 2 designs (of the projector itself, not the TI stuff) to minimize obsolescence. When/If 4K hits the DLP world...that may shake things up a bit too and really put the hurt on 2K and particularly series 1 2K, which will then be 2-levels back.
Again, it is anyone's guess.
Steve
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