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Author Topic: Survey: Which movie will be the box office winner this summer? Mark J. Marshall Film God Posts: 3188 From: New Castle, DE, USA Registered: Aug 2002 posted 05-03-2007 10:39 AM                    There are a lot of films coming out this summer that have the potential to do huge box office numbers. When all is said and done, and everything has been released, and all of the theatrical release numbers are in, which do you think will be on top and why?  |  IP: Logged Jack Ondracek Film God Posts: 2348 From: Port Orchard, WA, USA Registered: Oct 2002 posted 05-03-2007 10:59 AM                        Pirates 3. Nothing else will come close. Shrek might be fun, though.  |  IP: Logged Mike Blakesley Film God Posts: 12767 From: Forsyth, Montana Registered: Jun 99 posted 05-03-2007 11:19 AM                        It's a tough call between the big 3 (Spidey, Pirates, Potter) But I think the top 5 in order will be: 1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 2. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 3. Spider-Man 3 4. Shrek 3 5. Ratatouille The only one I really feel sure about is Pirates. The others...well, the order could shake up just about any way, I suppose. I expect Bourne Ultimatum to be good. Evan Almighty - I was totally against that one from the first but the latest trailer looks pretty good, plus Steve Carrell is on a streak, so it might be a surprise. Surf's Up will be a contender, unless the media beats the "another penguin movie?" theme into the ground and kills it. Simpsons is a real wild card. I feel like it could be huge, but just not sure. I'm not hearing the buzz on it, but it's early. There are a lot of decent movies which would be topliners in any other year, but this year they're second-teir. Fantastic Four, Chuck and Larry, Transformers, Daddy Day Camp, Rush Hour 3, Live Free or Die Hard.  |  IP: Logged Stephen LaPadula Film Handler Posts: 50 From: New York, Ny Registered: Mar 2005 posted 05-03-2007 03:20 PM                     Harry Potter is a suckers bet given the other big films. Take a look at Box Office Mojo. The Potter film that had a summer debut was the lowest grossing in the franchise. You'd think someone at WB would want to hold off until November where they have proven most successful. I'm skeptical about it being in the top 5. Also, Pirates seems to be everyones favorite, but Spidy has 2 weeks with 0 direct competition, and Pirates is 6 days after Shrek (for those running it at 8pm on Thurs.) There will certainly be some people who will have to choose between the two. Then it's all down hill in terms of competition. Michael Bay only has one flop, though I'm not sure how mush mass appeal Transformers will have (think about Pearl Harbor, The Rock , Armageddon). And not to leave out Rush Hour. It's been 5 years since the last one but that grossed $226 million. Will anything that grosses less than $200 million be considered a failure?  |  IP: Logged Matt Whitney Film Handler Posts: 27 From: Naperville, IL, U.S.A. Registered: Dec 2004 posted 05-03-2007 04:26 PM                     I'm gonna go against the trend and pick Spider-Man 3 as being in the number one spot. As for the rest... 2. Pirates 3. Shrek 4. Harry Potter 5. Ratatouille (You can't count out Pixar, given their track record)  |  IP: Logged Luci Reeve Film Handler Posts: 50 From: Telluride, CO, USA Registered: Feb 2006 posted 05-03-2007 04:42 PM                        PIRATES by as much as $50M. Nothing else will even come close.  |  IP: Logged Bobby Henderson "Ask me about Trajan." Posts: 10973 From: Lawton, OK, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 05-03-2007 06:04 PM                     I think Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End will be the summer's biggest money winner. Ratatouille is the movie I want to see most out of this year's crop of "summer films." Not sure how much money the movie will make. But then I don't give a damn if its a major blockbuster either. I'm still going to go see it even if I'm the only one who intends to see it. Pixar and Disney are still going to make money from it though. Good movies can often be measured by something besides box office gross. And some "blockbusters" in recent years have been mediocre or even bad, such as the first Spiderman installment. I just hope the public doesn't stay away from the movie based on the odd title. Shrek 3? Not sure about that one. Wasn't too impressed with Shrek 2. Spiderman 3 will make a good amount of money. However, the film's running time and growing number of bad to mediocre reviews will ruin its staying power. If it drags as much as some suggest then the word of mouth won't be good. It'll probably open with a record-breaking weekend due to all the insane front loading of movie theater screens. Our Carmike 8 has it booked on 3 full screens, with two more shows doubled with another movie on a 4th screen. At 12:01am tonight they'll play the movie in as many houses they can fill, even if all 8 screens get filled. Basically, anyone who wants to see this movie on opening weekend won't have any problem doing so. I expect a big drop in attendance on its 2nd weekend. The Fantastic 4: Rise of the Silver Surfer is going to do better than the first Fantastic 4 movie. But it probably won't beat the numbers of Spiderman 3. Thank God they didn't try to use a sequel number on this movie. Some folks would have been scratching their heads seeing "Fantastic 4 2" on the marquee. Actually, that may be how the movie is listed on some theater signs. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix will probably do very well. It won't be Pirates in box office haul. But considering its biggest competition will be Michael Bay's Transformers pic, the new Harry Potter movie would actually have to be pretty bad to keep audiences from visiting the theater in droves. Rush Hour 3 looks like it will be crap. Live Free Or Die Hard sounds like the title for a movie about hillbilly militant separatists who abuse Viagara. 12 years have passed since the last Die Hard sequel was released. This new one doesn't look very exciting. Can't they do better than just getting the "I'm a Mac" guy as a sidekick? What the hell is the movie even about? The trailer sucks. I know we complain every summer about sequel-itis. But it seems like there really is a serious glut of sequels this year, much more than the usual amount. How many non-sequels are going to do well?  |  IP: Logged Mike Heenan Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1896 From: Scottsdale, AZ, USA Registered: Mar 2000 posted 05-03-2007 06:28 PM                     Well there was what, 17 years between the last Rocky and Rocky Balboa, and that one turned out pretty good box office (considering it's budget). However, I'm currently reading that Fox ordered major cutting down to PG13 so this may affect it's likability.  |  IP: Logged John Joseph Fink Film Handler Posts: 60 From: West Hartford, CT Registered: Feb 2006 posted 05-03-2007 07:04 PM                        PG-13 Die Hard? Why? The previous R-rated Die Hard flicks were obviously hits - Fox did this with Speed 2: Cruise Controll...and no one cared (then again that movie was cheezy). I think Simpsons will be huge, of the summer movies (and keep in mind I work a 8-5 office gig) it's the only one I'd consider going to a Thursday midnight show of.  |  IP: Logged Dennis Benjamin Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1445 From: Denton, MD Registered: Feb 2002 posted 05-03-2007 07:26 PM                        'Pirates 3'... 'Transformers' will surprise us gross wise. 'Potter', 'Shrek', and 'Spiderman' will all do well - but P3 will be the one. I secretly hope that Mr. Ratner's "Rush Hour 3" will give us a good boost in August and break some of the previous August records. Of course it could turn out to be a 'Super Bad' summer.........  |  IP: Logged James Westbrook Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1133 From: Lubbock, Texas, Usa Registered: Mar 2006 posted 05-03-2007 09:22 PM                     "Hostel 2". Yes, I'm Joking. Pirates. I wish it was a half-hour shorter to get more shows on screen.  |  IP: Logged Chad M Calpito Master Film Handler Posts: 435 From: San Diego, CA Registered: Apr 2006 posted 05-03-2007 10:45 PM                        My guess would be these two: 1) Harry Potter & The Order of The Phoenix 2) Pirates 3 I would say Maybe to Spider-Man 3.  |  IP: Logged Matt Fields Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 545 From: Ohio, United States Registered: Jun 2005 posted 05-04-2007 08:40 AM                     My prediction: 1. Pirates 2. Spider-Man 3 3. Shrek the Third 4. Potter 5. Transformers Others that will do well: Fantastic Four, Evan Almighty, Ratatouille, Chuck and Larry.  |  IP: Logged Frank Dubrois Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 896 From: Cleveland, OH Registered: Mar 2005 posted 05-05-2007 03:32 PM                    1. Pirates 2. Shrek 3 3. Transformers 4. Spiderman 3 5. Fantastic 4 or Simpsons Once word gets out about the crappy soap opera that is Spiderman 3, it will die down fast. Too much other good stuff to go check out. Shrek will benefit from Theaters in malls where parents can drop off kids and go shopping. Transformers will be a surprise I think...will do well. Pirates...well....what can I say, it just feels right.  |  IP: Logged Jim Bedford Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 597 From: Telluride, CO, USA (733 mi. WNW of Rockwall, TX but it seems much, much longer) Registered: Jun 99 posted 05-07-2007 02:31 AM                        Watch out Spidey! Pirates has you in its sights.  |  IP: Logged

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