Do you think theatres will ever die out completely?

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Famous Players is "the big" but yet they're still losing a lot of money. I've been told that in an e-mail from the guest services!

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Passenger trains were killed by cars that could run on individual timetables, and had more comfort. Theatres can be somewhat compared to those trains, and films to destinations. The primary difference in the comparison is that when movies are first marketed to the public, the only way to see them (visit that destination) is in a theatre. With the exception of the old Key West railroad, no railroad ever had the advantage of no competing road for automobiles.

If and when that exclusive release to theatres is lost, then theatres will, with a few exceptions, die off. Hopefully, that won't happen for many years. However, if cable or satellite systems ever succeed in a "restraint of trade" suit against the distribution timetables, or the number of theatres falls to a point where more money can be made through immediate direct distribution to the consumer, then all bets are off.

In another comparison, neither trains nor theatres make efficient use of land, and the cost of land is always increasing, decreasing profit margins. Both trains and theatres use a location intensely for a very short period of time, and most of the time the tracks lie empty and the seats unfilled. Compare that to a road that carries cars and trucks all the time, and television or storefronts that make product available to customers all the time. Inefficient methods of distribution usually are abandoned over time. The long range outlook for theatres isn't good unless some new technology, such as a real 3-D or William Castle effect, makes them unique in the way they show product.

As for the current "crisis," the second tier of exhibitors are now making their moves. I've read of three new companies reportedly breaking into the Miami market within the past month. If anything, this crisis has broken the stranglehold of the majors, who can no longer afford to force out small competition by building across the street from them. Now is a _great_ time for anyone starting up a small circuit. Conditions may never be this good again.

WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT?

First, it doesn't take five screens to do an hour on the hour schedule for a film.

Second, it doesn't take into account the pressures from the distributor to run multiple screens in order to obtain the product. Most of the time, there is no alternative.

Third, it doesn't address the idea that when some people try to attend a movie and get turned away, that they may never return.

Fourth, on the other side, it doesn't examine the possibility of building and keeping a mixed audience at a location. I've seen theatres that had a devoted art and foreign product clientelle lose those customers because summer blockbusters took all the screens for a period of weeks, breaking the habit of weekly attendence by these customers. Dumb.

Personally, I'd think long and hard before devoting more than two screens to a film if I had other product worth showing. OTOH, we had a single print of Batman at one location where NOBODY was seeing any other film, and EVERYBODY wanted to see Batman. In a seven screen theatre, we ran the single print on the Friday and Saturday night shows through five projectors before it hit the take-up platter. It was a joy to behold.

I was intrigued with your railroad analogy. I submitted your comments to my father (the railroad king) to get his comments.

"I want to think about this for a while--like on Cape Cod--but if this theory were true why haven't home video and TV destroyed the movie theatre? It seems to me that people go out to the movies precisely because they want to go out, they want to get out of the house, make it a social event (dinner plus movies, movies and drinks afterwards etc), The whole idea that people want to do their shopping "on line” at home, watch movies at home etc is basically flawed. Human beings are primates and social animals---why do you think malls are so popular?

Railroads have not gone out of business because there are some things they do better than any other mode of transportation--moving bulk commodities like coal and grain. They are also more fuel-efficient than trucks and can move goods over longer distances at lower cost

There must be something that the traditional box movies theatre does (or can do) better than TV or video that has kept them alive until now. I am not sure what it is."
My father the railroad king.

(We all know what we do better than TV or video.)

While he totally ignored the distribution question, I think he hit the nail on the head. Going to the movies is a social activity. If a teenager no longer has a movie theatre to go to on a date and the next best thing is watching television in one or the other's home, they will find a new activity to engage in away from home. Half the time I go to the movies to get out of the house.

Video rentals and the short window for second run HAVE effectively killed the "dollar" theatres that were popular a few years back. If that window were expanded again, you would see a resurgence of those theatres. Exhibition depends on that window of exclusivity more than you might think.

As for movies being a social activity, I'm not sure I buy that any more. If it were true, how do you explain the demise of the "social" experience than seeing a film at a drive-in, where customers go from car to car, and chat during the film? People are becoming increasingly wary of large groups, with the exception of sports events and concerts, where there are plenty of police visible.

Some more theatre/railroad comparisons:

Film developed during late 1800s
Railroads developed during late 1800s
Early movie companies made their own cameras and projectors.
Early railroads made their own locomotives and cars.
Theatres highest popularity was between 1900 and 1950 (While there are more people attending now, the percentage of people attending has steadily dropped.)
Rail travel highest popularity was between 1900 and 1950. (While there is more freight now, the number of shippers using railroads has steadily dropped.)
Early exhibitor corporations were dominated by legendary ruthless barons
Early rail corporations were dominated by legendary ruthless barons
Projectionists unionized, yet the union has weakened over the past 30 years.
Railway workers unionized, yet the union has weakened over the past 30 years.
Exhibitors do not produce a product, but depend on other sources.
Railways do not produce a product, but depend on other sources.
Early projectors were fueled by carbon rods.
Early locomotives were fueled by carbon in the form of coal.
Early projectors were hand cranked.
Early locomotives were hand fired.
Early theatres were fire traps with dangerous nitrate film.
Early trains were firetraps with coal stoves and kerosene lanterns.
Modern projectors are driven by electric motors.
Modern locomotives are driven by electric motors.
The government controlled film with censorship during the time around WW II
The government controlled the railroads during the time around WW II
Exhibition came to be dominated by a few companies that gobbled up the smaller companies.
Railroads came to be dominated with a few companies that gobbled up the smaller companies.
Theatres are operated with fewer personnel than during the glory years, to save payroll expense.
Railroads are operated with fewer personnel than during the glory years, to save payroll expense.
Theatres companies build big, but skimp on upkeep and repairs.
Railroads build big, but skimp on upkeep and repairs.
There is a great nostalgia for the glory days of film, with vintage memorabilia fetching high prices.
There is a great nostalgia for the glory days of railroads, with vintage memorabilia fetching high prices.
Tickets are needed to see a film.
Tickets are needed to ride a train.
Food is a secondary service of theatres.
Food is a secondary service of passenger trains.
Theatres must operate on a timetable to maximize operations and avoid problems.
Railroads must operate on a timetable to maximize operations and avoid problems.

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