posted 10-29-2003 09:14 AM                       

Here's the latest on this HUGE solar storm, which could severely affect radio communications and the power grid this week:

http://sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://sec.noaa.gov/forecast.html

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Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity continues at high levels. Region 486
(S17E04) produced one of the largest flares of this solar cycle, an
X17/4B proton flare peaking at 28/1110Z. This flare had intense
radio bursts including a 245 MhZ burst near 500,000 sfu and a
Tenflare of 13,000 pfu. A very fast (near 2000 km/s), earthward
directed full halo CME was observed on SOHO/LASCO imagery. Region
486, a beta-gamma-delta group with over 2100 millionths of white
light areal coverage, is now one of the largest and most complex
active regions of solar cycle 23. Region 484 (N03W68) maintains
considerable size and complexity as it approaches the west limb. It
produced occasional C-class activity and a low M-class flare at
28/1613Z. Region 488 (N08W04) continues its rapid growth and now
exceeds 800 millionths of coverage in a beta-gamma-delta
configuration. Frequent C-class flare activity was observed in this
region throughout the period. New region 493 (N09E05) was numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at high levels. Region 486 in particular, has potential to produce
further major flare activity. An isolated major flare is also
possible from Regions 484 and 488.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A CME was observed to pass
the ACE spacecraft at around 0130Z. Solar wind speed rose to near
800 km/s, but Bz stayed northward, thwarting a significant
geomagnetic response. The X17 flare that occurred at 28/1110Z
produced proton events at greater than 10 and greater than 100 MeV
which remain in progress at this time. The greater than 100 MeV
event began at 28/1145Z with a maximum so far of 176 pfu. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 28/1215Z with a maximum so
far of 6020 pfu. A polar cap absorption began at 28/1237Z and
remains in progress.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to potentially severe storming in
the next 24 to 48 hours. Today's X17 flare produced a large and fast
halo CME that will likely impact the Earth's magnetic field by
midday on day one. Past events of this magnitude have almost always
produced severe storming. The storm is expected to continue through
at least the first half of day two. Unsettled to minor storm levels
are expected on day three. The greater than 100 MeV proton event
is expected to end by day two. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event will likely persist through day three.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M 90/90/90
Class X 50/50/50
Proton 99/99/75
PCAF in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 274
Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 270/260/250
90 Day Mean 28 Oct 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 080/100-100/120-015/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/50
Minor storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 60/60/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/50
Minor storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 70/70/10

http://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#GeomagneticStorms

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Power systems: : widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.

Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites.

Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.)**.

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NEWINGTON, CT, Oct 28, 2003--The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center (SEC) reports a powerful solar flare erupted today from vicinity of the huge region 486 sunspot at 1110 UTC. This resulted in a severe category R4 radio blackout with an associated strong category S3 solar radiation storm. Instruments on the SOHO satellite detected the event, the SEC said.

"The SOHO/LASCO instruments also observed a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with this activity, which is Earth-directed," the SEC said, adding that region 486 is the second largest observed during this solar cycle.

The SEC has predicted a geomagnetic A index of 50 or greater for October 29 (UTC) and an A index of 100 for October 30 (UTC). The noon solar flux October 28 at Penticton Observatory in British Columbia was a whopping 257. The geomagnetic K index was expected to reach 4.

SpaceWeather.com is calling the flare "one of the most powerful solar flares ever recorded." Brilliant auroras could appear when the fast-moving cloud of gas and particles sweeps past Earth. That could happen as early as tonight.

Residents of high-latitude locations such as the Northern United States from Northern New England to the Northwest as well as New Zealand, Scandinavia, Alaska, Canada could be treated to auroras, but these could show up in lower latitudes as well.

SEC says it expects a severe category G4 geomagnetic storm with periods of extreme category G5 levels possible as a result of this activity. The solar radiation storm also is expected to continue at strong levels for the next 48 hours.

"Further major eruptions are possible from these active regions as they rotate across the face of the sun over the next few days," the SEC said. "Agencies impacted by solar flare radio blackouts, geomagnetic storms, and solar radiation storms may experience disruptions through this period." These could include spacecraft operations, electrical power systems, HF communications, and navigation systems.

For more information visit the Propagation page on the ARRL Web site.

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Even if sensitive digital equipment in theatres is unaffected, I suspect there may be some disruption of satellite communications.

Might be a good idea to avoid flying at high altitude this week, as you will be exposed to some higher than normal levels of ionizing radiation. Also, be careful about shipping sensitive electronic components like CMOS or CCD sensors, as they may suffer some dead pixels if hit with enough high energy particles from these solar flares.

The good news is that if you have a clear night tonight, there should be some pretty glowing auroras in the northern sky.

posted 10-29-2003 11:03 AM                       

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John P. Pytlak, Senior Technical Specialist
Customer Technical Services, Entertainment Imaging
Research Labs, Eastman Kodak Company wrote:
Might be a good idea to avoid flying at high altitude this week

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Well that kind of puts the kabosh on the Film-Tech party this weekend.

posted 10-29-2003 11:22 AM                       

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Well that kind of puts the kabosh on the Film-Tech party this weekend.

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For "Severe" Solar Radiation Storms: "elevated radiation exposure to passengers and crew in commercial jets at high latitudes (approximately 10 chest x-rays) is possible". So it's not only radio "PROPAGATION" that may be affected.

posted 10-30-2003 05:28 AM                    

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Just look ont he bright side, if you have a ham radio you may be able to talk to someone back in the 40's. Hmm, that would make a good movie! oh yeah, no it didn't

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