Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: Guess the gross for this documentary.

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Topic: Guess the gross for this documentary.

Kamakshipalya Dhananjay
Expert Film Handler

Posts: 190
From: Bangalore, India
Registered: Aug 2002

posted 03-04-2004 01:31 AM

A hypothetical scenario.

Early March,2004 - A leading studio sees great potential and timing for financing a documentary on 'Gay Marriages'. It gets in an A list director and A list voice overs for the project. The cost of the documentary to not exceed 30 million (excluding the cost of print and publicity). The goal is to schedule the release for the third week of May,2004 or latest, the first week of June,2004.

The scope of the project – to analyse the dilemma of 'Gay marriages' that is exploding across the nation.

Obligation of the director – to not deliberately or consciously take either a 'pro' or 'anti' position on 'Gay Marriages'. To prepare the film to highest professional standards and to obtain extensive inputs from the scientific and legal and other expert community for the purpose. To deliver the final film without an R rating.

The release strategy – an estimated 20 million is pumped to promote the film and is promoted as a worthy source for decision making on the crucial issue of 'gay weddings'. Film to release in 3000+ theatres with preparedness to expand further at short notice.

Now, guess the gross for this film/documentary for the North American theatrical.

My prediction :
1. A 100 million is assured at worst. Though not in the very first few days of release.

2. A 300 million appears very likely given the nature of the subject matter.

3. In the absence of any other documentary on the same subject and notwithstanding the competition from regular fare, this documentary will stand a chance of topping 500 million dollars should the film come to be regarded as exceptionally great. That is, if the impact of this film is greatly felt among the audience. Prerequisite - the director will need to pour in his heart and soul to this project and his integrity in the endeavour should remain unimpeachable and so appear for anybody to see.

Your take ?

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Mike Spaeth
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1129
From: Marietta, GA
Registered: Jul 2000

posted 03-04-2004 01:34 AM

Documentaries very rarely get a mainstream release. A GREAT gross for a documentary is $10,000,000.

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Josh Kirkhart
Expert Film Handler

Posts: 165
From: Austin/Houston, TX, USA
Registered: Nov 2001

posted 03-04-2004 04:25 AM

With the GOLDEN production and advertising you suggest, theres no way it comes close to breaking even. Besides that distribution number would not break a 1000 prints if you laced the sold tickets with gold.
Now if it was shot for less than nothing and got a quarter of 'Passion' press you would get a art house release and make around 10 million that reflects Mikes' numbers.
This would only have toes, not legs. Instead of people talking about it, hearing about it and wanting to see it, they would just talk about it until the news shows another bombing in Iraq and a Sports star kills or rapes someone.

Forgive the rant, just a bit rung out from the news cycle.

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Chris Hipp
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1462
From: Mesquite, Tx (east of Dallas)
Registered: Jul 2003

posted 03-04-2004 08:37 AM

Didn't Daryl just move an almost identical thread out of Ground Level?

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Ian Price
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1714
From: Denver, CO
Registered: Jun 99

posted 03-04-2004 02:38 PM

Here is a list of Documentary Films that we have played or that we might have played in the past 4-years we have been open. I also include their total North American Box Office. The exceptions are Fog of War and My Architect which aren't done yet.

Sex with Strangers $255K
Stone Reader $260K
42 Up $300K
Into the Arms of Strangers $383K (Academy Award 2001)
Lost in La Mancha $733K
The War Room $901K
Genghis Blues $1.3M
My Architect $1.3M
The Kid Stays in the Picture $1.5M
Fog of War $2.3M (Academy Award 2004)
Step into Liquid $3.7M
Spellbound $5.7M
Winged Migration $10.7M
Bowling for Columbine $21.5M (Academy Award 2003)

As you can see, Bowling for Columbine is the winner.

A good documentary tells a story you either don't know anything about or tells the story from a different perspective. Right now, Gay Marriage is in the news. You can learn all you want by reading a newspaper or watching television. It takes time to tell a good story. Right now people are too involved in the Gay Marriage story to tell a good story about it. Sometimes story telling takes distance and perspective to be interesting.

So the total for these 14 Doctmentaries is $51.172M for an average of $3.655M. But Bowling for Columbine is responsible for half that amount.

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Adam Martin
I'm not even gonna point out the irony.

Posts: 3686
From: Dallas, TX
Registered: Nov 2000

posted 03-04-2004 06:16 PM

We didn't need more than one topic on The Passion and we don't need more than one topic on Gay Marriage documentaries. We also don't need teaser subject lines.

Thank you and have a flowery day over here in this thread.

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