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» Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE   » Community   » Film-Yak   » Digital Theatre - She's coming... (long) (Page 1)

 
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Author Topic: Digital Theatre - She's coming... (long)
David Buckley
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 525
From: Oxford, N. Canterbury, New Zealand
Registered: Aug 2004


 - posted 08-13-2004 06:10 AM      Profile for David Buckley   Author's Homepage   Email David Buckley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I'm not a professional projectionist, hell, I'm barely an amateur projectionist, but I do have a lot of background in IT, and in making businesses work better through the use of IT. I've been following the digital theatre thing a bit, and haven't seen any comment on the issues that I believe will force Digital Theatre down peoples necks.

I offer the following thoughts... If all this is old news then apologies up front, I've just not found it yet [Smile] And I may have misunderstood and/or misinterpreted things I've read about on here, and if so I apologise for that too. And I'm sorry its a bit long.

Meanwhile, on with the show.

The Coming of Digital Theatre

This is a crystal ball attempt at how movies will be shown in chain multiplexes within ten years. I’m talking here about large national chains in the USA that have many hundreds or thousands of multiplex theatres. Smaller chains and independents won’t be able to leverage the commercial advantages outlined here, so what will happen to the huge numbers of these theatres is a bit of a mystery. The public will determine their fate. As to other countries – they also generally don’t have all the pieces to achieve the economies that USA theatres will, but something similar will arrive in most advanced countries in the world, though maybe over a long timespan.

In the Drive-in Workshop web site, it states “Consider the operation of a drive-in theatre as a restaurant. Contrary to popular belief, theatres see little of the money that is taken in at the boxoffice; film companies get the lion's share. Concession sales are literally the theatre's bread and butter. If the entire theatre operation is kept foremost in mind as primarily a restaurant business, for which movies are shown as added entertainment, then the financial success of the operation as a whole can better be served.”

The chain owned multiplex theatre of the future will be more a restaurant than ever before, or possibly less of a movie theatre – the manager won’t even have the keys to the projection booth. The manager and the staff will be free to concentrate on the profitable front-of-house activities, leaving the actual business of screening the movies to head office and their computers.

Most discussions concerning digital cinema have focussed (sorry – poor pun) on the actual affair of projection, and the advantages and (more usually) the disadvantages that digital projection has compared to the traditional 35mm presentation. This, however, isn’t a good point to start from when looking at the future of a multiplex chain. Indeed, it seems almost the least important element. The entire value chain needs to be examined, as much of the benefit of digital cinema (as seen to the commercial arm of the multiplex chain) is outside the booth.

Before detailing how this will all work, we should consider the most important person in the whole process – the audience member.

It is very sad, though maybe not so surprising, that many folks who visit the movies either don’t care the presentation is naff, or don’t even realise they are seeing a naff presentation. A small percentage of the worlds projectionists are represented on film-tech, and it is assumed most of these projectionists either don’t suck at all, or suck less than the typical projectionist. Whatever is the case, every day lots of people are going down their local multiplex and seeing a mediocre presentation, and walking away blissfully happy.

This typical bunch of people who are blissfully happy with their mediocre multiplex presentation are going to be really happy getting digital cinema, as they don’t know or care enough to know if its better or worse, and as long as whatever technology is rolled out doesn’t truly blow goats, its likely to be at the least more consistent than they are used to, and in all likelihood probably a slicker “better” presentation. And its digital, it must be better – right?

There are endless debates about how good (or otherwise) digital projectors are, and indeed how good they need to be, and what they will require to do to compete with 35mm on a level playing field. But I worry this may all be a bit academic. In the sadly now defunct Electronics Australia magazine, November 1966, The Serviceman (who we never found out who he was) reporting on a TV set in need of repair mused “I will never cease to wonder at what people will listen to in terms of distortion while ever there is a picture on the screen.” I wonder if the converse is true: as long as the Dolby Stereo is pumping, how much does Average Joe agonize over picture quality?

There are two (other?) groups of losers in this incessant march of technology.

The first is the person who can appreciate “film done right”. There will be many less venues capable of showing 35mm at all. As stated above, those few independent non-monolithic chain establishments will be fighting for their existence.

The second group of losers will be the projectionists. This is a job title that will be almost non-existent after the digital revolution. Today, many people “operating” projection equipment are “sort of” projectionists, often with job titles including the word “usher”. This is already degrading to “proper” projectionists, but all are a species under threat.

On then to how this all will work.

Let’s start with Printing and Distribution

Today there is a massive industry built around the making of prints. A movie heading for a big first run requires thousands of prints. It’s not much easier to make a thousand prints than ten prints; each print requires a copying process, and a development process. There are few economies of scale.

Then when you’ve got this mountain of prints, you need to get them distributed.

You need to get the right print to the right theatre at the right time, and these days that includes trying to stop prints from being “borrowed” en route, and thus copied. This is a large logistical nightmare.

Just when you think you’ve got it cracked, you’ve got lost prints and damaged prints which need replacing quickly, in time for the scheduled screenings. So you had to make spare prints, and you hope you have enough.

And then a couple of weeks later you need to move them all around to different theatres, and then finally you need to dispose of the print mountain, because the next big movie has arrived.

This entire operation will be replaced with digital distribution.

Given the number of target theatres, the obvious digital distribution mechanism is via satellite. Satellite is a very expensive method of distributing data, but it is very cost effective when you have to distribute identical data to many places. So every theatre will be equipped with a dish to receive the (dual) encrypted movie. The data will be transmitted using techniques like Forward Error Correction (FEC) so that noise bursts or rains pots will not cause data integrity failure.

Inside the (locked, remember) booth will be a receiver and a disk storage system. This will store the encrypted data stream. There will also be a decryption mechanism that will take off the outer wrapper of encryption. This decryptor will operate very like the decryptors used to ensure the integrity and privacy of money transactions. These devices are highly tamper resistant, and will self destruct if they think they are being interfered with. Bring on Mission Impossible.

The outer encryption will offer powerful over-the-air security, far in advance of what is used in most of today’s satellite broadcasting. It also will allow control of when the movie can be decrypted. Only first-run theatres can extract the movie stream for the first period of time, and then second run etc. It is conceivable that home users could also retrieve the data from satellite, but not extract it until the DVD release date.

This all sounds expensive, but it is all available today, and the costs can easily be amortized over a long period. And it will cost a fraction of what all those prints cost, over the long term.

Many people who work in the print production and distribution industry thus have an uncertain future.

So the studios can deliver a movie securely to a theatre. What next.

Digital Projection.

Its coming, and its getting better and cheaper by the year, and it will be more reliable, and with remote management. The least reliable element of the projection system (or put it another way, the element that is likely to interrupt a presentation) is the light source, the xenon arc. Digital projectors will adopt the same approach that lighthouses have used for years, namely a standby light source. If the prime source fails, the standby source will take over. This is likely to happen automatically, so an exploding xenon lamp is not the end of the show.

Given that the local staff doesn’t have access to the booth, the ability of the system to self-heal and for the “vital statistics” of the projection system to be stored, analysed and reported on, all at the head office, will be important innovations. The same techniques and tools used today to manage computer networks and computers thereon will manage the theatres of tomorrow.

As an example, when that light failed, the projectors own intelligence allowed it to carry on operating with the spare. The projector raised an (SNMP) “alert” which was recorded on the alert management systems at head office, which automatically raised a “trouble ticket”. Tomorrow, an engineer will be around to replace the failed bulb.

What happened to The Manager

The other thing that will change dramatically is the manager’s role; particularly in relation to how little control he will have over his/her facility. This is because it won’t actually be the manager’s facility any more, the key decisions a manager makes today will be taken at head office, and in many cases by computer. The manager’s role will be to keep the concessions selling, and to keep the concession sellers in order.

The key to this entire approach will be centrally driven automation of the entire multiplex operation.

Today many theatres have automation to do the mundane things on a per presentation level, like dimming the house lights, and the clever things, like changing from flat to Scope. Tomorrow’s automation will run the entire show. But it won’t be programmed by the projectionist, not that there is a projectionist there any more. Head office will build the program for the features presentation, and this will be downloaded to each theatre. Presentation consistency across a chain of multiplexes will be the name of the game.

In the book “McDonalds, Behind the Arches”, Richard Kearns who built the (now well gone) Red Barn hamburger chain stated “We all had star stores that could keep up with the best of McDonalds, but on a companywide basis, nobody compared”. McDonalds (love ‘em or hate ‘em) have a consistent product identically delivered at all outlets. That is the multiplex of tomorrow. And centrally programmed automation is the key to that consistent experience.

But that’s only scratching the surface.

The same central, head office computer system that delivers the show to the theatre will also book the advertising in the local papers, provide the recorded announcements of what is on where, and allow you to book your ticket over the phone or the web. It will also instruct the computer systems in every multiplex as to what is on when.

The multiplex’s slave computer will then make sure the LED signs (or video walls) outside the theatre have the right shows and showtimes on them. And that little LED sign behind the ticket seller, and the ticket sellers computer will all have the right things on them too. And the ticket selling machines in the foyer, just swipe your card, madam, no need to wait in a queue.

But here’s the really cool bit. A screen won’t be allocated to a movie until the computer is ready to instruct the staff to let the audience in. So the computers can “oversell” movies, as if a particular screen fills, it can “swap” the movie to a different screen. Any screen can show any movie. There is a branch of computer science entitled “constraint programming”, often used to generate school timetables or nursing rosters, which would be ideal to solve the “how best can I fill this theatre overall and make most money” type problems.

And of course, all this attendance data is summarized, analysed, localised, regionalised, drilled down and a million other things that data warehousing techniques offer head office, so they can “better know their customer”. And decide just when to change the schedules in the hope of attracting a bigger audience. Or, to be really honest, the audience that does best at the concessions.

That means that if a movie sucks, or some B feature becomes popular, the theatre can instantly adapt. Some turkeys are going to find themselves dumped off an entire chain within hours of opening.

So just to wrap up - the staff’s job is to get the people to the screen when the computer says so, and to press the green button when most folks are in. That’s it. Oh yes, and sell food.

Endspiece

That then is the future of the large chain multiplex. As individualised as McDonalds, slick mechanical presentations. No projectionists, no managers to speak of, just a money generating machine that cranks the handle on a daily basis. Movies untouched by human hand.

The only people who will decide if this is what happens, or it doesn’t, are the paying public. Projectionists, managers, industry figures, media will all be ignored and frankly trampled under foot as the boards of directors of big chain multiplexes are caught in the glare of the headlights as the economics of the big picture of digital cinema roll in. Only if the public don’t buy it will it fail.

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Darryl Spicer
Film God

Posts: 3250
From: Lexington, KY, USA
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 - posted 08-13-2004 10:18 AM      Profile for Darryl Spicer     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
But the one big question still remains. Who is going to pay for all of this shit. According to the In Focus Magazine that the US is the lowest on the totem pole in digital projection installs and most of them were donated by 3rd party sources like Texas Instruments.

If everyone were to use the high end TI projectors most likely a lot of projection consoles will have to be upgraded to be able to provide the light output that is required to run these things.

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David Buckley
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 525
From: Oxford, N. Canterbury, New Zealand
Registered: Aug 2004


 - posted 08-13-2004 02:52 PM      Profile for David Buckley   Author's Homepage   Email David Buckley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
The cost of re-equipping 'plexes will be paid for out of the decimation of the printing and distribution industries, and in a lessor part by salary savings at every theatre.

This wont work if just a few theatres go digital - it takes the big multi chains to do the math, and look at the costs and benefits over a few years.

Oh yes, and on better margins in advertising. Advert reels suffer the same cost structure as features, again in printing and distribution.

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Dustin Mitchell
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From: Mondovi, WI, USA
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 - posted 08-13-2004 03:22 PM      Profile for Dustin Mitchell   Email Dustin Mitchell   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
The cost savings you refer to in film printing and distribution will go almost entirely to the film companies. If they want to foot the bill for digitial projection that's great in theory. The problem is despite their already tremendous cost savings they are going to want something in return-more control of programming (trailers), showtimes, etc. I am definately against theatres surrendering control of operations to the distributors.

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Ethan Harper
E-dawggg!!!

Posts: 325
From: Plano, TX, USA
Registered: May 2000


 - posted 08-13-2004 03:41 PM      Profile for Ethan Harper   Email Ethan Harper   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Boo Digital...Digital Bad. Why if I were a wrestler, I would bodyslam digital and then throw it against the ropes and then clothesline it.

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David Buckley
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 525
From: Oxford, N. Canterbury, New Zealand
Registered: Aug 2004


 - posted 08-13-2004 03:52 PM      Profile for David Buckley   Author's Homepage   Email David Buckley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Ponder this then.

How much does your multiplex chain value you?

Or to put it another way, what differentiates one multiplex chain from another? They all show the same films?? Does anyone say "we do film right, better than chain X down the road"?

From the perpective of the multiplex chain, projection is just a necessary evil to make the business work.

What if TES say to AMC - "Look, all that projection stuff, its just an overhead on your business, and to be honest, doesnt add any competitive advantage to your chain. Projection is just a commodity. Why dont you outsource your projection to us, and we will re-equip all your theatres with state of the art digital projection, and just take a percentage of your gate? And as a sweetner, we'll update your IT systems and give you great information"

Result - AMC don't need to spend a cent and get to reduce their running costs and stresses, and TES gets to save its business.

I dont disagree the numbers involved here are huge, but its a twenty year gamble, and there are going to be huge winners and huge losers.

And "state of the art" to AMC will not hold a candle to what is being done today in some theatres, but as they say, "thats progress". Who would ever have thought that folks would listen to MP3s. MP3 bad - but people like it...

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Dustin Mitchell
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From: Mondovi, WI, USA
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 - posted 08-13-2004 06:05 PM      Profile for Dustin Mitchell   Email Dustin Mitchell   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
So TES gets to take over maintenance of said digital projectors and AMC gives up revenue?

Lets see, TES will need cost of spare parts + cost of standard maintenance + overhead cost of their own business structure + profit. AMC, if they did their own projection needs cost of spare parts + cost of standard maintenance. Business overhead is a cost AMC would have either way. So how does AMC save any money here, except on the digital projector install (which do not really benefit them in any way anway)?

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David Buckley
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 525
From: Oxford, N. Canterbury, New Zealand
Registered: Aug 2004


 - posted 08-13-2004 07:10 PM      Profile for David Buckley   Author's Homepage   Email David Buckley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
No, TES takes over the ownership and operation of the booth. And that was just a "what if".

Twenty years ago, before the word "outsourcing" made it to the dictionary, you could have asked the same questions of any large business. Everything was done in house, there were janitors, IT people, photocopying staff, people who answered phones, all sorts of things. In many businesses today, these tasks and many others are outsourced to specialists in their field.

Example: IT is the core of almost any large business today, and yet large businesses, and governments are quite happy to outsource their entire IT operation. In many cases, that represents billions of dollars.

The big advantage to the host company is that they dont need to manage these aspects of their business, or the staff associated with this part of their business, and they often (though not always) achieve a cost saving into the bargain. And being ugly about it, outsourcing is a good way for a company to dump staff.

Its not just about buying a digital projector. Its about changing the whole way the movie exhibition business works, and for those companies in at the right place at the right time, its a win-win situation - they make more money.

Of course, I may be completely wrong in all this...

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Dan Lyons
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 - posted 08-13-2004 07:47 PM      Profile for Dan Lyons   Email Dan Lyons   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
WTF? David, do you work for a digi projector company?
That long post of yours sounds like a sales brochure. [sleep]

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Gordon McLeod
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 - posted 08-13-2004 08:05 PM      Profile for Gordon McLeod   Email Gordon McLeod   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Cost wise and upkeep cost still would require a replacement of far more prints than are currently struck to be viable

Also remember that in many secondary markets the used prints are what they get so the cost of providing to those markets will be higher if there are no used prints

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William Hooper
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 - posted 08-13-2004 08:58 PM      Profile for William Hooper   Author's Homepage   Email William Hooper   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Darryl Spicer
But the one big question still remains. Who is going to pay for all of this shit.
Ad revenue & rentals. Won't take long.

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Gordon McLeod
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 - posted 08-13-2004 09:37 PM      Profile for Gordon McLeod   Email Gordon McLeod   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Funny you mention advertising paying one circuit I deal with isn't even recovering the cost of the lamps used in "digi advertising"

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David Buckley
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 525
From: Oxford, N. Canterbury, New Zealand
Registered: Aug 2004


 - posted 08-13-2004 11:21 PM      Profile for David Buckley   Author's Homepage   Email David Buckley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Dan Lyons
WTF? David, do you work for a digi projector company?

No, most certainly not. I'm not anything to do with anything to do with movie theatre, except as an apprentice amateur projectionist.

I have been seriously involved in IT and electronics and technology, and business change, and other stuff for many years. I've seen what IT can do. I've seen what happens when you say, awww nah, that'll never happen, its (select one or more of) too hard / too expensive / too disruptive. It happens.

And that is my point here. From the little I've learned about theatre, and the lot I know about technology, I can feel the breeze a comin'.

quote: Gordon McLeod
Also remember that in many secondary markets the used prints are what they get so the cost of providing to those markets will be higher if there are no used prints
This will sound cruel, but what secondary market? Its a few more years down the line, but once digital distribution is serving the majority of the marketplace, and the dust has settled a bit, the economics are going to swing hard in the favour of digital distribution, and anyone who wants a real print will have to pay for it. There wll not be a level playing field. The big chain multiplexes will have a lower cost for delivering the movie to the screen than a theatre still using 35mm. The 35mm theatre in a competitive situation with a big chain multiplex will be disadvantaged.

The trick will be to survive until the backlash and nostalgic revival of 35mm, like vinyl on yur record player.

quote: Gordon McLeod
... isn't even recovering the cost of the lamps used in "digi advertising"
I'd guess this is because they use a separate system for digi adverts than they use to show their features. But if its all done on the same digital projector - slide ads, movie ads, trailers, features - its just operating hours.

Update

I've just read a posting by John P, "Digital/Film Projection in a theater", which has this link:

CSFB Research Paper

Which if I'd have known about would have saved my typoing up my thoughts...

Anyway, it says the same things I did, but much better, and with pictures and numerical analysis. And it concludes that Digital Theatre isn't ready for the prime time yet, or within the next two years.

And we know they are right. But I still think, ten years...

There are two other useful snippits I spotted:

a) The Kodak effort is attempting to keep in place the existing relationships in the overall scheme of things, and

b) They also reckon the cost to convert the USA to digital theatre using todays pricing at $1.8bn.

Our "friend" Bill gates has enough loose change to pick up that tab, and at a stroke could change the distribution chain. All he needs to do is to get into bed first with a few of the studios, and then start making offers big chain multiplex can't resist. Work quietly towards a critical mass, and boom, another business falls Bills way.

Depressing.

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Ethan Harper
E-dawggg!!!

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 - posted 08-14-2004 01:16 AM      Profile for Ethan Harper   Email Ethan Harper   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
It's a shame that money can ruin so many great things. But I guess that is what it is all about, who can make their wallet fatter and not care about the quality or happiness or the millions of hard workers it takes to not only print a film but project it as well. Who cares about the millions of people that will lose their jobs as the Digital Lords come rolling through and the possible blow it could cause our already degenerating economy. But hey, I can save a few bucks by putting out sub-par quality crap then why not right? Everyone else sucks and I am richer. We will just find a way for consumers to not want to come to the movie theaters anymore. I imagine in time the movie theater industry will too crumble and movie theaters will no longer exist. What happened to the value of entertainment? Someone wanted to save a few bucks. Oh well, I guess I better start logging on to the Digi-Tech Forums and get me some digi-guard. Maybe it might help improve the image quality.

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Carl Martin
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 - posted 08-14-2004 05:15 AM      Profile for Carl Martin   Author's Homepage   Email Carl Martin   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
david,

very interesting analysis. it's not a perspective i like to adopt, but your ideas have a certain plausibility. i hope it's more of a science-fiction plausibility but i'm cynical enough to fear that it might be a real one.

it truly would be the death of cinema. i do think film, the physical material, is essential to the medium. video is a distinct form, though one which is lately engaged in a "dialogue" with film. particularly at the digital intermediate level, and to a lesser extent at the capture level, and unfortunately at the exhibition level.

so far, this dialogue has produced some esthetically interesting results, but more often has simply muddied the waters. cinema is losing its spontaneity and its anarchic spark. this is not at all inherent to video, but the effect of this model will be to further drain the soul of the medium (or mixed-media). with the increased centralization and homogenization, lucasvideo will dominate and dogme-95 will disappear.

i don't see much appeal in such a cinema. we'll have cinema-as-escape and cinema-as-entertainment, but we'll lose cinema-as-mirror and cinema-as-art. i can scratch black leader today and show it on a big screen tonight. i can shoot 8mm and 16mm and have it seen in festivals or local screenings. it's marginally possible for "anyone" to scrounge enough resources to produce a 35mm film of some sort, however "unwatchable". if that disappears, if there's no continuum between what's on the screen and everyday life, then cinema is incomplete.

i really don't want that to happen.

carl

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