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This topic comprises 4 pages: 1 2 3 4
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Topic: Hurricane Frances
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Ron Yost
Master Film Handler
Posts: 344
From: Paso Robles, CA
Registered: Aug 2003
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posted 09-01-2004 04:49 PM
From the AP:
"With Hurricane Approaching, Florida Calls for Evacuations
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: September 1, 2004
Filed at 5:15 p.m. ET
MIAMI (AP) -- Nearly a half-million people were ordered to evacuate as Hurricane Frances swirled toward Florida on Wednesday just weeks after Charley's devastating visit, threatening to deliver the most powerful one-two punch to hit a state in at least a century.
Those planning to ride out the storm snapped up canned food, water and generators, while military helicopters and planes were flown out of the area and Cape Canaveral's Kennedy Space Center said it would close on Thursday.
Forecasters said the still-strengthening Category 4 storm could hit on Labor Day weekend as early as Friday night, less than three weeks after Charley raked Florida's western coast with 145 mph wind, causing billions of dollars in damage and killing 27 people.
"I can't emphasize enough how powerful this is. If there's something out there that's going to weaken it, we haven't seen it," National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield said.
Gov. Jeb Bush declared a state of emergency, activating the National Guard.
Many homes in southwest Florida still have blue tarps patching holes in their roofs after Charley, and some streets remain full of storm debris that could become wind-blown projectiles.
"We've just gone through 2 1/2 weeks of torture trying to get our lives back to some sense of order," said Punta Gorda retiree Tom Hamilton.
Evacuation orders were posted for 300,000 residents in coastal areas of Palm Beach County, and 192,500 were told to leave mobile homes and low-lying areas of Brevard and Martin counties. The evacuation orders were set to take effect Thursday afternoon.
Frances was about 700 miles southeast of Florida on Wednesday afternoon, heading northwest on a course that would take it to the central portion of Florida's eastern coast. Residents of Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina watched the forecast closely in case Frances took a sharper turn to the north.
Bush cautioned that "all the science in the world and all the technology in the world isn't going to be able to pinpoint exactly where the storm goes."
Frances would be the fourth storm to affect Charleston, S.C., this summer. Bonnie and Charley arrived within days of each other in August, and Gaston dumped more than 13 inches of rain in some areas when it came ashore Sunday.
With the ground saturated from previous storms, more rain and the slightest wind could cut utility service for thousands, even if they don't take a direct hit from the storm.
"With the ground this wet, trees could easily topple," said Tom Williams, a spokesman for Duke Power in Charlotte, N.C.
The storm and the mass evacuations are sure to spoil Labor Day outings and make a mess of holiday travel across the Southeast. Florida may reverse lanes on some highways to handle the evacuation traffic, state Emergency Management Director Craig Fugate said.
If Frances hits, it could be the most potent two-hurricane combination to hit a single state in at least a century of record-keeping. Frances is as strong as Charley, but forecasters said it could become a Category 5 with winds of 156 mph or higher.
Hurricane-force winds extended about 80 miles from Frances' center, making it about twice the width of Charley and increasing the possibility for damage.
The last time two major hurricanes hit Florida in rapid succession was 1950. Hurricane Easy struck Tampa around Sept. 4 of that year and Hurricane King hit Miami six weeks later on Oct. 17. They were Category 3 storms.
Nancy Cuffaro of Port Charlotte, whose home and pizza restaurant were damaged by Charley, said she is hoping Frances spares an area that is still suffering.
"I know we can't withstand too much. I really don't know what to think here. I'm lost. It's starting to get to me," she said.
A Home Depot to the south in Florida City, hit hard by Hurricane Andrew 12 years ago, more than doubled its daily sales and ran out of generators and plywood. It sold $50,000 worth of lumber Tuesday, said assistant manager Lisa Ftiffler.
North Miami Beach resident Lorraine Lewis bought a small cooking stove in case of emergency but wasn't planning to stick around long enough to use it.
"I have water and plastic and a plane ticket," she said.
State officials worried about finding enough room in shelters. Many hotel rooms in southern Florida are occupied by emergency workers and people left homeless by Charley. Some schools and community centers are still being used as shelters.
Deanna Creamer, who rode out Charley in her house in Punta Gorda, was still repairing roof and water damage. "I heard a little bit on the radio this morning, and I shut it off," said Creamer, 40. "I just can't imagine having to go through this again."
Charley destroyed or heavily damaged more than 30,000 homes and caused an estimated $7.4 billion in insured damage. It was the worst natural disaster to hit Florida since Andrew caused $15.5 billion in insured damage and killed 15 people."
--Ron Yost .. ![[Frown]](frown.gif)
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William Hooper
Phenomenal Film Handler
Posts: 1879
From: Mobile, AL USA
Registered: Jun 99
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posted 09-02-2004 12:52 AM
quote: John Pytlak
Right now, it seems to looking like landfall late Saturday will be near Cape Canaveral (Kennedy Space Center).
Good luck to all in its path.
You ppl are like to drive me crazy!
Try "Landfall probablilties are now centered around Cape Canaveral." That is more accurate, & also indicates that there is an unspecified range around the center.
"Good luck to all in its path" -- NOBODY "in its path" is going to have good luck. Anything which is in the same place as the hurricane is blowed up. Plus, NOBODY knows what its "path" is unitl it has passed.
I don't know how these ideas of the forecast tracks being sort of bike paths for the hurricane have gotten entrenched. It was evidenced when the folks in Florida evacuated 100 miles & were SHOCKED, SHOCKED when they were still hit by the hurricane.
Go to the NOAA's National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
There's a list of active tropical storms.
Under Frances, for our new graphics-fascistic world, click on "Maps & Charts". It will take you to a page with graphical representations of strike probabilities.
There's a link to a graphic of the predictions for the 5-day track
The line is not a streetcar line that the hurricane will be riding on. It is the MEAN of the probabilities extending from the storms present position. The white field surrounding the line which is the mean is NOT a picture of how far the rain will go out. It is the RANGE of probabilities, & you can tell that by the fact that it fans out from the storm's present position.
So the range of landfall probabilities includes all the west coast of Florida, & part of Georgia. This is why the hurricane watch area IS the entire west coast of Florida. Only slight deflection from the mean will generate a new range of strike probabilities.
Only John Hawkinson is allowed to talk about where the hurricane will go until this concept is understood!
The state of Florida is Not A Good Place To Be when the hurricane is coming, because evacuation essentially must be to get out of Florida - as can be seen from the range of strike probabilities & duration of destructive weather.
Thomas needs to head for the gulf, get on a boat & go to New Orleans, which is pretty much outside the range. The New Orleans tourist influx du weekend is Southern Decadence, which is a sort of convention of gay drunks in the French Quarter as opposed to the convention of football drunks in the French Quarter when there's some bowl game at Superdome. The drawback is as usuual the hotels are filled, but Thomas may be able to negotiate even more financially favorable terms for someplace to sleep with the Southern Decadence crowd.
The pictures are supposed to make it easy for everybody! But instead of interpreting them, people are Rorshaching all over them!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT1+shtml/020226.shtml
This is what used to go BANG BANG BANG out of the teletype, & people seemed to get the idea. Even that table's precision is "CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT SEP 4 2004"
65 Nautical miles!
The storm expected to make landfall between Friday 8PM & Saturday 8PM. So at THIS time, the probabilites within 65 Nautical miles for that time period are, out of 100:
FT PIERCE FL 5
COCOA BEACH FL 6
DAYTONA BEACH FL 10
JACKSONVILLE FL 14
SAVANNAH GA 12
Look at that spread! So I guess it means Fort Pierce is the place to be! Ummm, maybe not.
But look! Only a 14% chance of it being within 65 NM of Jacksonville, anyway! Why should they sweat it? I mean c'mon, only 14% !
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Mark Lensenmayer
Phenomenal Film Handler
Posts: 1605
From: Upper Arlington, OH
Registered: Sep 1999
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posted 09-02-2004 12:56 PM
My source for accurate weather information is Weather Underground
The site is free, but with ads. Removing the ads costs only $5 per year, a fee I gladly pay. I'm on that site many times a day during bad weather. It has the most accurate weather radar, and the new charts even show the size and intensity of storms.
I agree that the science of hurricane prediction is very difficult. I just checked 5 of the leading computer models, and there is no consensus at all, although there is general agreement that the storm will hit somewhere in mid-Florida. Two show the storm moving up through Georgia, one has the storm moving across Florida, back into the Gulf, then up into the panhandle and then Georgia. The last takes the storm across Florida, back into the Gulf, THEN up into New Orleans!! We'll just have to wait and see. I've seen a number of 100% chances of winter storms go away at the last minute.
In any event, this one is going to be very nasty, and anyone anywhere close to it should pack up and get out.
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