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Topic: Hollywood Stock Exchange

David Stambaugh
Film God

Posts: 4021
From: Eugene, Oregon
Registered: Jan 2002

posted 12-08-2004 09:42 PM

I just stumbled on this, don't recall it ever being mentioned here before, and I can't find it in a search. Apologies if it has been mentioned and I missed it.

Hollywood Stock Exchange

When you sign up (free), you're given 2 million H$, "Hollywood Dollars". You can then trade on their stock exchange. You can buy and sell shares of stock in stars or movies. There's also "funds" like, say, SciFi Movies, Action Movies, etc. They allow long trades, short trades, puts, calls, all kinds of stuff. Looks kind of fun.

Since you guys get to see films before the general public, maybe you have a little inside track on predicting what will be successful at the box office, and what will tank. Maybe there could be a Film-Tech contest where everyone who's interested signs up and starts trading, and we see who has the most successful portfolio at the end of 2005. [Big Grin]

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Dustin Mitchell
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1865
From: Mondovi, WI, USA
Registered: Mar 2000

posted 12-08-2004 09:46 PM

I've been playing this for a while now, always thought about posting about it here but never got around to it. It would be especially fun to do some league play so that everyone here could compete against each other.

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Sam Johnson II
Film Handler

Posts: 25
From: Waynesburg, KY, USA
Registered: Jan 2004

posted 12-08-2004 11:40 PM

This is *VERY* fun, I think. A coworker of mine got me addicted, so I've been playing for something like two months now. I'll probably break H$4 million on Thursday. Though, of course, there are players that have played for a long time and are worth many more millions than I. Sometimes billions.

For anyone who's interested, here are the basics: each moviestock is based off how much it's expected to make in it's first four weeks of wide release. Of course, prices goes up when more people buy it (or cover it) and goes down when more people sell it (or short it).

When a movie opens in wide release (HSX considers this 650 or more theaters) then the stock is halted. When the estimates are in on Sunday, the stock price adjusts to, for a Friday opener, 2.8 times it's weekend take, because, on average, a movie will make in its first 4 weeks of wide release 2.8 * weekend gross. For a Wednesday opener, it's 2 * Wed-Sun gross. When the adjust happens, the trading of the stock resumes as before. After four weeks are up, the stock delists at whatever the movie has made.

Some helpful hints: the biggest thing stressed from tips guides to make money is to play the weekend openers. Quite simply, the formula I use is I take a movie's price, divide it by 2.8 (or 2, where applicable) and I get an estimate of a movie's opening weekend gross.

You can also play the delists. Take Polar Express for example: I don't remember exact numbers, but it was halted at something like H$110. It adjusted to something like H$60. Maybe not quite that much, but it was quite a bit. Anybody who had bought that movie was screwed. Anyone who shorted that movie was living large. But, it had good legs, so in the end had a higher multiplier than 2. It delisted at H$96.

Another thing the effects prices is the news. If a big star or director signs on for a movie, expect the price to go up. If they drop out, expect it to go down. And a strategy I've started for this coming weekend is to look what trailer's are debuting in theaters. For example, I've bought Constantine and XXX: State of the Union since those two trailers (in Constantine's case, it's new full trailer) came loose with Blade: Trinity. Later tonight I'll be buying Be Cool and Batman: Begins. I guess I'll see if it pays off.

And there's plenty to figure out on your own, and a lot more that what I've mentioned here, of course. But this should be a good start. Personally, I think moviestocks are the way to go, since starbonds are a little more complicated, and don't adjust as much, and funds are long-term investments (which is appropriate for larger ports who can put money into it, and still have money left over to buy their short-term investments). Options are good, though. Typically, they have a strike price (say, H$15) for a movie, and there's a call or a put option. The call option says that for whatever movie will make over $15 million over the weekend. If it does, it adjusts to however much over H$15 it made. So, if the movie makes 20 million over the weekend, it will delist at H$5 a share. If this happens, then the put option will cash out at H$0. The put option is the same thing, except it says the movie will make under that strike price. If this happens, the the call option will cash out at H$0.

Once again, I think it's very fun. If anyone's interested in adding my to their league, my username is SamJohnson2.

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