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Author Topic: Predictions for the 'legs' of episode III Michael Barry Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 584 From: Sydney, NSW, Australia Registered: Nov 1999 posted 05-20-2005 07:33 AM                     Anyone care to speculate how long it will be until this movie starts playing to near empty theatres? I think the end of May will be pretty close to it, unless it attracts repeat viewings. Anyone else?  |  IP: Logged Mike Heenan Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1896 From: Scottsdale, AZ, USA Registered: Mar 2000 posted 05-20-2005 10:30 AM                     I saw it last night at a 10:45 showing, with only 5 people total in the theater.  |  IP: Logged Michael Barry Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 584 From: Sydney, NSW, Australia Registered: Nov 1999 posted 05-20-2005 12:05 PM                     Was this a commercial screening, or did you run it for yourself? Sorry if this seems obvious already...  |  IP: Logged Mike Heenan Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1896 From: Scottsdale, AZ, USA Registered: Mar 2000 posted 05-20-2005 12:50 PM                     It was a commercial screening at a theater, sorry I didn't clarify that.  |  IP: Logged Jeremy Fuentes Mmmm, Dr. Pepper! Posts: 1168 From: Corpus Christi, TX United States Registered: Jan 2004 posted 05-20-2005 12:53 PM                     I saw it last night at a Cinemark, in their biggest house(something like 400 seats, I think), almost a packed house.  |  IP: Logged Rachel Craven Madam Moderator Posts: 2190 From: Pensacola, FL Registered: Dec 2000 posted 05-20-2005 05:38 PM                     My 10:00PM showing last night had 5 ppl in it, how sad. And actually, my 1:45PM showing yesterday didn't even run...  |  IP: Logged Eric Hooper Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 532 From: Fort Worth, TX, USA Registered: May 2003 posted 05-20-2005 06:25 PM                     50 million opening day. It will finish with 160 million over the four days. It will then drop over 60% next weekend! This movie has no re-watchable qualities to it. Besides, as i mentioned in my review, those hardcore fans who would want to watch it again have already been trained by Hollywood that the DVD will be out within the next two months (see Flight Of The Phoenix).  |  IP: Logged Darryl Spicer Film God Posts: 3250 From: Lexington, KY, USA Registered: Dec 2000 posted 05-20-2005 06:50 PM                    If it is anything like Attack of the clones, I will have one print running until September. Oh and I am not a Star Wars geek (Dress up like characters) type of a fan and I want to see it again. A feeling I didn't really have when Ep 1 and 2 came out. DVD I will be looking for it around Christmas.  |  IP: Logged Mike Heenan Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1896 From: Scottsdale, AZ, USA Registered: Mar 2000 posted 05-20-2005 06:58 PM                     They announced that the DVD will be out for Christmas not in the next 2 months.  |  IP: Logged Kurt Zupin Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 989 From: Maricopa, Arizona Registered: Oct 2004 posted 05-20-2005 08:16 PM                     This film will have legs, but once it hits middle of June there will be too much competition for it. Eric I don't know what your talking about but this film has a lot of re watchable qualities. The fight scenes are worth it alone. I screened our two prints, then went and watched our 6:45 showing to a sold out show...188 people, the 7:10 showing in the second theater was a sell out as well. And I just got word that this evenings 6:45 and 7:10's both sold out. And all the showings during my shift today had at least half if not 3/4 full...considering people were in school and working thats very good. After three viewing I could go for a 4th and I'm not a Star Wars Geek either...I was entertained and wasn't left bored watching it.  |  IP: Logged Dylan Marchetti Film Handler Posts: 27 From: New York, NY Registered: Oct 2004 posted 05-20-2005 08:31 PM                        I think it'll drop rather fast- the last two dropped after two weeks, but there was little competition the week after. Next week is Madgascar and Longest Yard, both of which stand a good chance of pulling $35+ million each (I think Madgascar could grab 50 if they ramp up the ads a little bit). This'll sap youngsters and teens, leaving Star Wars for young adults and the hardcore fans who are already watching it four times this weekend. Also, this one is far more overscreened than the last two- Lucasfilm dropped the digital sound requirements, and some of the more restrictive booking rules (this time drive-ins are OK, etc.), giving it something like 700-800 more locations. That tells me that while the last two were selling out during the first weekend, forcing people to try again later, this one won't have that happen. With something like 8,000 prints, if you want to see it this weekend you can. I say if it pulls $150 this weekend, it drops 55-60% next week to a more reasonable $55-65.  |  IP: Logged Darryl Spicer Film God Posts: 3250 From: Lexington, KY, USA Registered: Dec 2000 posted 05-20-2005 08:57 PM                    We have it on 4 screens right now and our booker told us that the fourth print would only play a week. Will be interesting to see how many prints will be dropped after the first week.  |  IP: Logged Bobby Henderson "Ask me about Trajan." Posts: 10973 From: Lawton, OK, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 05-20-2005 09:12 PM                     Even though I liked EpIII in general, I don't see it playing to packed houses for anymore than a week. Attendance will start falling off rapidly then. The show will rake in a lot of money, but it will not play for long. It certainly won't have "legs." That's mainly over the studios' habit of making several thousand prints for a release rather striking a more normal number of 2000 to 3000 prints. Fewer prints would allow the films to play out in theaters longer. Movies like "Forrest Gump," "Titanic" and even "Independence Day" had legs. The latter of those three 90's movies mentioned played to sold out houses for several weeks. "Titanic" was selling out 2 screens at Lawton's Carmike 8 from its December opening clear on into March when it cleaned up at the Oscars. The theater didn't lose print #2 until the middle of April. And it took May "summer movie" releases to push aside print #1. Even if a movie is just freaking fantastic, an "instant classic" etc., we can forget about the show lasting as long as a recent film like "Titanic," or months and months on end like true blockbusters of decades past. The press throws around the terms "hit" and "blockbuster" so loosely the terms have no meaning anymore. Ticket price inflation has made the $100 million mark absolutely meaningless. When a forgettable sequel like "Shrek 2" can place at #3 on the all time money makers list, it is a very clear sign the idiots in the entertainment press, exhibitors and most other movie industry people need to finally count numbers of tickets sold. If a movie sells 25 million tickets, that would be a qualified box office hit. If it sells 100 million tickets, I would consider that a true blockbuster.  |  IP: Logged Brad Allen Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 688 From: Evansville, IN, USA Registered: May 2000 posted 05-20-2005 11:45 PM                     All of the last 3 Star Wars have played in the drive-ins and non-digital houses around here on the break. Legs...May 31 it will drop like a rock in small town America.  |  IP: Logged Lyle Romer Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1400 From: Davie, FL, USA Registered: May 2002 posted 05-20-2005 11:53 PM                     It'll probably take in $250 million in the first 11 days and then maybe hit $350 million total. Of course, this is what the studios want. They don't want legs becuase they get a higher percentage of the total this way. The studios certainly don't want 2 prints selling out for 8 weeks. They want 16 prints selling out for one week. If you really want to see the DVD window increased and movies do a lot better, reverse the sharing order. Start at a 50-50 split and give the studios an extra 5% each week until they get to 95%. It'll never happen but it would probably lead to a much healthier industry.  |  IP: Logged

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