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Author Topic: Aloha/ATA/Skywest! Who's next? Louis Bornwasser Film God Posts: 4441 From: prospect ky usa Registered: Mar 2005 posted 04-05-2008 08:09 PM                        3 in one week; any more airlines to fail?  |  IP: Logged Mike Heenan Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1896 From: Scottsdale, AZ, USA Registered: Mar 2000 posted 04-05-2008 08:12 PM                     I just returned from Oahu a few weeks ago, but ironically none of those airlines had the cheapest fare, it was United (and if I planned it better, I think American Airlines had a fare $100 cheaper than United), so I wonder how this will effect fares on other airlines to Hawaii?  |  IP: Logged Tim Reed Better Projection Pays Posts: 5246 From: Northampton, PA Registered: Sep 1999 posted 04-05-2008 08:25 PM                       Fuel prices probably have a great deal to do with it. I'm just guessing.  |  IP: Logged Joshua Waaland Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 800 From: Cleveland, Ohio Registered: Dec 1999 posted 04-05-2008 09:53 PM                     Well yesterday proved the end for Skybus. They were headquartered in Columbus, Ohio. They just opened last year and their gimmick was really cheap flights. They charged extra for baggage, snacks, peak times, etc, etc. My wife's aunt flew here two days ago with them and she said the plane was brand new and it was the best flight she had ever been on. The flight crew was happy and great too. The same night she arrived was the day they closed up shop and declared bankruptcy. Now she has to fight for her money back and had to book a new flight to get back to Virginia. My sister-in-law's family would fly up here from Charlotte all the time for family functions. They could fly all four people for like $150! When they opened up just last year I wondered how in the heck they could stay in business with those kind of prices. Now I know they couldn't.  |  IP: Logged Paul Mayer Oh get out of it Melvin, before it pulls you under! Posts: 3836 From: Albuquerque, NM Registered: Feb 2000 posted 04-05-2008 10:31 PM                        Fuel price is indeed a factor, but it's not the only thing going in the wrong direction for the airlines these days. Regarding fuel, only two airlines are forecast to make money this year, JetBlue and my former employer Allegiant Air. Fuel prices could double their current levels and Allegiant will still make a profit. Overseas, SAS makes the same claim. Aloha with its debt load and costs couldn't compete with Mesa's unrealistic low inter-island fares. What's sad is that even though Mesa had these low fares, their load factor was never more than about 25% on the puddle jumpers they fly. Aloha was flying with 85% load factors with their 737s and couldn't break even while being forced to match Mesa's fares. Mesa has never made a profit in the islands but they did manage to run one of the big guys into the ground. As for ATA, FedEx pulled the rug out from under them in that FedEx terminated their team agreement with ATA to help carry US troops under FedEx's federal CRAF (Civil Reserve Air Fleet) contract. Without that subsidy and cash coming in, ATA couldn't cut it. ATA operated two round trips a day between Hawaii and here and left hundreds of pax stranded here last week after their sudden shutdown. Haven't heard anything specific about Skywest yet, but all the major carriers including Delta and United (Skywest's major partners) are looking hard at pulling the plug on the cost-pass-through agreements they presently have with their respective regional affiliates. Which means the regionals will now have to start running without any financial assistance (which covered things like fuel price increases) from their former major partners. Skybus lasted all of 10 months. I kinda wondered about the viability of their business model with Columbus as a hub, especially given their debt load with all those new Airbuseseseseses. As is typical of most new businesses, it looks like they simply weren't capitalized enough to carry them through the initial lossy phase that every new business goes through. The fallout from the Southwest/United/American/Delta maintenance paperwork debacle continues. Four more airlines are under investigation at this point. Allegiant will have the FAA on their property Monday morning to begin their maintenance audit. I wish Allegiant all the best, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some of their planes grounded for a while after this audit. As for me, not sure I want to try to stay in the airline industry right now, though I have apps in with FedEx, Southwest, and Virgin America. Also have a shot at doing some civilian contractor work for the USAF at the Al Udeid airbase near Doha, Qatar. All aircraft maintenance or engineering related stuff. Was planning to get my pilot credentials off ice later this year, but in this market pilots are suddenly once again a dime a dozen. No need to waste money reviving a useless ATP certificate at this time. [Edit] Lots of people are guessing Frontier will be the next mainland carrier to go this year. [ 04-24-2008, 03:42 PM: Message edited by: Paul Mayer ]  |  IP: Logged Chad M Calpito Master Film Handler Posts: 435 From: San Diego, CA Registered: Apr 2006 posted 04-05-2008 11:01 PM                        I wonder what the prices will be for Hawaiian Air when I fly to my motherland Hawaii First Class. I always choose Hawaiian Air since they fly direct from San Diego to Hawaii. I'll just have to check when I take my next vacation there.  |  IP: Logged Mike Blakesley Film God Posts: 12767 From: Forsyth, Montana Registered: Jun 99 posted 04-06-2008 12:05 AM                        The security nonsense has ruined flying more than fuel prices. I used to kind of enjoy flying, but no more. Airport security never turns up any real trouble, just slows things down, and the terrorists are probably planning something that'll have nothing to do with airplanes anyway. It's just a bunch of feel-good baloney that has ruined an industry.  |  IP: Logged Chad M Calpito Master Film Handler Posts: 435 From: San Diego, CA Registered: Apr 2006 posted 04-06-2008 01:15 AM                        I, too, can't stand the Security stuff and do agree that it does slow things down. Oh well, I just put up with it when traveling.  |  IP: Logged Scott Norwood Film God Posts: 8146 From: Boston, MA. USA (1774.21 miles northeast of Dallas) Registered: Jun 99 posted 04-06-2008 06:26 AM                        What Mike said. The airline security mess has probably been the best thing to happen to Amtrak's Boston<->NYC train route. The Acela doesn't really save any time or money, but it is much less annoying than flying and passengers arrive downtown in both cities (thus saving a cab fare).  |  IP: Logged Leo Enticknap Film God Posts: 7474 From: Loma Linda, CA Registered: Jul 2000 posted 04-06-2008 07:08 AM                        Who's next? Alitalia is on the brink: AF/KLM walked away from takeover negotiations when the Italian government (which owns a 51% stake) made it clear that they wouldn't support any takeover which involves job losses. Under European Union competition laws Italian taxpayers can't continue to pump money into Alitalia and run it at a loss, with the result that it's expected that the airline will enter the Italian equivalent of Chapter 11 and be radically downsized. As for who's next after that: Shitish Airways if there's any justice in this world! If even an airline deserved to fail, it's that shower. As you'll probably have heard, the opening of the new Terminal Five at Heathrow went completely tango uniform: over a week later, they've still got around 20,000 bags yet to be reunited with their owner (the lastest rumour is that they're going to fly them all to Milan for sorting!), and are cancelling around a third of each day's flights. They've had incompetence down to a fine art for about ten years now. Every summer or Christmas there is either a strike, some monumental cock-up or both, and we see the now traditional spectacle on the telly of passengers in a makeshift refugee camp at Heathrow declaring that it'll be a chilly day in Hell before they ever fly BA again. Northwest are apparently going to start charging $25 to check a second bag on US domestic flights, increasing their fuel surcharge and are scaling back their timetable. Their transatlantic service from Amsterdam is still very good though: I've probably used it 15-20 times in the last five years or so, and there was only ever a serious delay once (in the dying days of the DC-10s, where a maintenance issue caused a three-hour delay leaving Memphis). They were very efficient rebooking the connections and gave us a meal during the wait.  |  IP: Logged Jim Cassedy Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1661 From: San Francisco, CA Registered: Dec 2006 posted 04-06-2008 11:47 AM                     I'm begining to wonder if airlines, like celebreties, "die in 3's"?  |  IP: Logged Leo Enticknap Film God Posts: 7474 From: Loma Linda, CA Registered: Jul 2000 posted 04-11-2008 07:01 AM                        Looks like fours - Frontier has just filed for bankruptcy. In other developments, BA has announced that it's postponing the move of its long haul flights into the new Terminal 5 at Heathrow. Looks like they couldn't recruit enough armed guards to put down the riots which would have resulted...  |  IP: Logged Joshua Waaland Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 800 From: Cleveland, Ohio Registered: Dec 1999 posted 04-11-2008 03:49 PM                     Who the heck is going to buy all of these used planes especially now that times are tough?  |  IP: Logged Paul Mayer Oh get out of it Melvin, before it pulls you under! Posts: 3836 From: Albuquerque, NM Registered: Feb 2000 posted 04-11-2008 04:55 PM                        A lot of the older technology ones will get parked in the desert again. I think a lot of new ones will too this time around. Leasing companies will buy them up by the boatload - at bargain prices. They'll put 'em in the desert for a few years where they won't cost much to store or preserve. Then when times get good again, they'll bring 'em out, clean 'em up, and lease/sell/fly them again. Except for the ones that end up being worth more in pieces/parts. Those get broken up for parts, with the leftovers cut up for scrap and recycling. At Allegiant a lot of ours came from the desert. A typical used MD-81 through -87 in the desert goes for $4-8M ($2M just for the JT8D-219 engines alone). Relatively cheap! We also bought one and broke it up just for the parts.  |  IP: Logged Bobby Henderson "Ask me about Trajan." Posts: 10973 From: Lawton, OK, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 04-11-2008 09:20 PM                     quote: Scott Norwood The airline security mess has probably been the best thing to happen to Amtrak's Boston<->NYC train route. The Acela doesn't really save any time or money, but it is much less annoying than flying and passengers arrive downtown in both cities (thus saving a cab fare). High fuel prices and other issues are breathing new life into both passenger rail and freight rail business. We don't have much at all in the way of passenger rail service in Oklahoma. Just the Heartland Flyer between Dallas and Oklahoma City. Lately there's been word of that route being expanded north to Kansas City. It's not clear how the route would be expanded, either by way of Tulsa or Wichita. I wish Oklahoma had a good regional passenger rail network -something to link Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Norman, Lawton and even Wichita Falls. I'd use it.  |  IP: Logged

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