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Author Topic: Exhibition in 2018 Mike Blakesley Film God Posts: 12767 From: Forsyth, Montana Registered: Jun 99 posted 10-20-2008 02:35 PM                        The new Boxoffice has an article with 10 predictions as to what Exhibition will be like in ten years. I won't put up the actual predictions from the magazine but let's make some guesses of our own. What kind of changes do you foresee? If you have the magazine, feel free to comment on specific predictions in the article but I think it would be wrong to put up the 10 actual predictions from the magazine at this point. It'll be fun to check back in here in 10 years to see how right/wrong we were.  |  IP: Logged Bill Enos Film God Posts: 2081 From: Richmond, Virginia, USA Registered: Apr 2000 posted 10-20-2008 03:09 PM                     If theatrical exhibition exists, all sub runs and mid runs will be gone, your show times will be controlled by studios/distributors who will be getting 10% to 20% of concessions and anything else sold in the building, govt. at some level will be dictating what can and cannot be shown, and unflattering things about government and its officials will be censored.  |  IP: Logged Rick Raskin Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1100 From: Manassas Virginia Registered: Jan 2003 posted 10-20-2008 03:10 PM                     Some of us don't get "Boxoffice" and would like to know what they are predicting before we comment or add. Given that, I think posting their predictions would be acceptable.  |  IP: Logged Scott Norwood Film God Posts: 8146 From: Boston, MA. USA (1774.21 miles northeast of Dallas) Registered: Jun 99 posted 10-20-2008 03:23 PM                        I can't speak for the rest of the world, but for the US, I'll offer these: - screen count will be 1/3 to 1/2 of what it is today (2008) - the theatres that survive will not be mainstream multiplexes (mostly), but will be the ones which offer something unique--programming, dining, atmosphere (drive-in, etc.), history, etc. will be valued - the above notwithstanding, mainstream multiplexes will survive in cities and major population centers - number of film releases will be about the same as it is now, but screen counts will be far lower - 35mm film (and, in repertory and special venues, 16mm and 70mm) will still be with us, but will by no means be universal, and some releases may be digital-only - 3D will be a specialty format (sort of how Imax is today) and not used for every release or available on every screen - Imax as a company will be gone, though large-format will continue in some form (film or digital) - ticket and concession prices will rise with (or maybe slightly faster than) inflation - quality of feature films will remain about the same as it is today - out-of-home entertainment options will continue to proliferate, with the result that movies are seen as a "special event" and not just "something to do"  |  IP: Logged Scott Jentsch Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1061 From: New Berlin, WI, USA Registered: Apr 2003 posted 10-20-2008 04:25 PM                        When making predictions about the future, it's sometimes useful to look an equal distance in the past. What has changed in the last 10 years? One can probably safely assume that the rate of change will increase in a non-linear fashion, where the next 10 years will see more change than the past 10. That said, I agree with many of Scott's predictions. I think the total number of screens will be lower, as will the total number of theater owners (consolidations of theaters and chains). I think that at least one of the major chains will be absorbed by another, possibly one lower in the ranks but not leveraged to the hilt in a bad economy.  |  IP: Logged Joe Redifer You need a beating today Posts: 12859 From: Denver, Colorado Registered: May 99 posted 10-20-2008 06:04 PM                        -There will be many more screens but fewer owners. -There will be fewer if any independents. Mike Blakesley will be homeless. He will eat discarded newspapers to survive. It will be a tough living since not many newspapers will exist in 10 years. -There will be at least 9 hours of ads and 4 hours of trailers before every movie. -The majority of releases will be digital only. -DTS will exist only in the home market... barely. -Many of us will have died. -Filmguard and media pads will be made-to-order only. -3D will still be just a gimmick for buffoons. -Going to the movies will be "something to do" until the home version of the movie comes out. -There will be flying cars and cyborg implants. -Jaws 19 will be one of the biggest flops in the last 3 years. -Working at a movie theater will still be considered the minimum wage "starter job" that it is today, thus professionalism will not be expected nor delivered... just like it isn't today. -Theater seats will be blamed for the epidemic outbreak of anal warts. -It will not be uncommon for the movie theater experience to cost the average family $100 or more, thus strengthening the home video market. -Nothing politically incorrect will be allowed to be shown or spoken due to the deep nationwide fear of offending someone. Reparations will be paid to anyone who has ever been offended for any reason.  |  IP: Logged Phil Hill I love my cootie bug Posts: 7595 From: Hollywood, CA USA Registered: Mar 2000 posted 10-20-2008 06:12 PM                  I could care less about what commercial film/TV exhibition would be like in 2018. By then, I'll be rotting in my grave and whatever happens won't phase me. Hopefully by then, they will bury dead people under new freeways and roadways...Ummm, *without* the the "mile dedications"...  |  IP: Logged Geoff Jones Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 579 From: Broomfield, CO, USA Registered: Feb 2006 posted 10-20-2008 06:58 PM                        Scenario A Movie-going has fractured into two distinct categories: Standard and Premier Standard screens are 20 or 30 feet wide and feature digital projection. Their business is split evenly between feature films and television. People come together and watch the latest episode of The Office or Survivor in these screens. The price of admission actually drops, thanks to automation and lack of print costs. “Premier screens are 60’ wide or larger. They feature new releases and classics in 70mm. The costs are greater ($25 a ticket), but discerning movie-goers are happy to pay it. Tuxedoed ushers monitor auditoriums regularly for problems and presentations are flawless. Most metropolitan areas feature 8-12 premiere screens and small towns usually have 1 or 2. Scenario B Movie-going is almost a thing of the past. Theatres are over-run by chatty dullards who don’t care that the image is a blurry mess. Discerning movie-goers have given up, realizing that they can have a better experience with friend and family at home. 120” Constant Height Projection is common-place in the home. Jonesy  |  IP: Logged Mark J. Marshall Film God Posts: 3188 From: New Castle, DE, USA Registered: Aug 2002 posted 10-20-2008 07:22 PM                    The world is ending in 2012 anyway according to the Mayans, so it won't matter much.  |  IP: Logged Bobby Henderson "Ask me about Trajan." Posts: 10973 From: Lawton, OK, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 10-20-2008 07:58 PM                     What will movie exhibition be like in 10 years? Honestly? Probably not much different than it is today. If I need to go out on a limb, I'll offer these predictions. In 2018, far fewer commercial movie theater screens will exist if exhibitors keep doing business the same old way. Exhibitors like Bill Warren who gamble big sums of money on high end "destination theaters" may be among the few left standing. High priced luxury theaters may flourish in larger cities. The movie/grille/bar concept will become more popular and may be one of the few ways cities with populations of 100,000 or smaller even keep a theater at all. A lot of fairly decent or even impressive theaters are going to close because the theater company (or whoever owns the property) wants to cash in on the real estate values. Once a few mergers happen, the "bigger" company will sell off lots of assets (theater sites) to pay down debt and lower operating costs. Some theaters may be bought out of their lease. VHS, DVD and Dolby Digital 5.1 were not enough to inflict damage to the commercial movie theater industry. However various kinds of home-HD technology will cause enough of a market shift to make traditional movie theaters in cities and towns with fewer than 100,000 people unprofitable to operate. IMAX Digital will be a historical foot note. IMAX will be out of business too if no one is making 65mm and 70mm film stock by then. If Kodak and Fuji are still making 35mm film stock, most Hollywood movies will still be shot on film rather than video. The movies just won't be shown on film. 35mm projection will exist only in revival type theaters within cities large enough to have any sort of arts district. It will be as rare as 70mm projection is now. OTOH, 70mm could see a slight or even significant resurgence -thanks in part to home video and Blu-ray. By 2018, a decent number of movies may be filmed in 65mm due to the increasing demands each successive home video format. Roger Ebert said this about the new Blu-ray release of Baraka: "The restored 2008 Blu-ray DVD is the finest video disc I have ever viewed or ever imagined." Digital projectors will be moving to something other than DLP. 4K-based projection will be common. I'm sure we'll see 6K or even 8K systems being introduced by then. By 2018, enough 4K digital intermediates will have been made to seed the successor of Blu-ray. Home viewers will have their super-phiggidy 1 billion to 1 contrast ratio, paper thin, wall sized 3840 X 2160 resolution screen for watching movies and TV, playing games, running their computer and making video phone sex calls to their girlfriends. People will be such cocooned couch potatoes by then they'll be fed by IV or stomach tubes and wear catheters and colostomy bags!  |  IP: Logged Robert Crabtree Film Handler Posts: 91 From: Largo, FL Registered: May 2008 posted 10-21-2008 01:40 AM                     Based off of Chris Anderson's "The Long Tail: Why the future of business is selling less of more", I imagine a proliferation of alternative content that at the moment, is largely a novelty, like opera, concerts, and sporting events. I think digital will become the norm, with film hanging on in small/niche markets. Theatres will see a greater need to break free of the limitations of the "short shelf", and with the above mentioned content shift, and digital capabilities, that can happen. I'm sure the trend towards a few Large companies will continue, but with a dark horse coming out of nowhere to become The Biggest. Call them REG 2.0. As for screen counts...I think there'll be a slight dip, with a focus on 12-14 plexes. With population growth staying constant, and many large cities already bursting at the seams, an exodus to the 'burbs and other less populated areas will bring new growth opportunities in previously underserved areas and perhaps a return to the neighborhood theatre, further driving down screen count averages in a "Post-Mega" era. I think there will be a growing market for theatres as a part of an entertainment site, but not the only focus- Restaurant/Theatre/Fun Center/Bowling Alley/etc.  |  IP: Logged Allison Parsons Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 630 From: East Peoria, IL Registered: Oct 2004 posted 10-21-2008 01:50 AM                        I do predict that posters will be no more, and some tiny projector thing will project the images on the walls of the lobby. But my crystal ball is fuzzy when it comes to the meat and potatoes aspect of the biz. I would have laughed at you 1996 if you told me in 10 years, my job would be replaced by a giant blue box projector which was ran by a super computer...  |  IP: Logged Jesse Skeen Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1517 From: Sacramento, CA Registered: Aug 2000 posted 10-21-2008 07:46 AM                     quote: Geoff Jones Theatres are over-run by chatty dullards who don’t care that the image is a blurry mess. Discerning movie-goers have given up, realizing that they can have a better experience with friend and family at home. Well on our way there already. I predict: screens and auditoriums will keep getting smaller, prices will keep going up, quality will keep going down (problems with digital projection will replace problems with film, and people still won't notice) and somehow theaters will still manage to stay in business. Every big movie will have "the highest-grossing opening week of all time" since the prices will go up as each one comes out. Customers will start arriving later after the show starts than they do now, and will leave earlier, right when it looks like the plot is wrapping itself up. End credits will be a few minutes longer and have some cool stuff hidden in them, but nobody will see it.  |  IP: Logged James Westbrook Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1133 From: Lubbock, Texas, Usa Registered: Mar 2006 posted 10-21-2008 12:07 PM                     In 2018, people like myself will no longer be in the exhibition business but will instead be gathering shopping carts in the parking lot of Wal*Mart and handing said carts to customers who walk into the store. I'll likely be bothering the staff in Electronics by pointing out the "classics" like Saw 5 and informing them I ran those movies back when theatres ran film.  |  IP: Logged Rick Raskin Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1100 From: Manassas Virginia Registered: Jan 2003 posted 10-21-2008 02:05 PM                     2018: "What's film?"  |  IP: Logged

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