my profile | my password | search | faq & rules | forum home

» Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE   » Community   » Film-Yak   » Let's guess Avatar's 1st weekend gross and 2nd weekend drop % (Page 1)

This topic comprises 9 pages: 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9

Author Topic: Let's guess Avatar's 1st weekend gross and 2nd weekend drop % Mike Blakesley Film God Posts: 12767 From: Forsyth, Montana Registered: Jun 99 posted 12-14-2009 03:42 PM                        I'm gonna say $62 million with a 40% drop in week 2. Normally a movie like this would have a lot higher drop, but with Christmas in there, I think there'll be a lot of repeat business. (All this is assuming the movie is good.)  |  IP: Logged Ian Parfrey Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1049 From: Imbil Australia 26 deg 27' 42.66" S 152 deg 42' 23.40" E Registered: Feb 2009 posted 12-15-2009 05:32 AM                     Nowhere near New Moon's opening weekend is my guess. I'm saying $50 million opening weekend and a 40% drop as word gets out. It'll do a "2012" and die quickly.  |  IP: Logged Jonathan Worthing Master Film Handler Posts: 384 From: Hereford, UK Registered: Apr 2001 posted 12-15-2009 06:18 AM                     $46.5m Week 1 It will that over the hype. 55% loss week2.  |  IP: Logged Justin Hamaker Film God Posts: 2253 From: Lakeport, CA USA Registered: Jan 2004 posted 12-15-2009 06:30 AM                        I'm going to say about $55 million for the first weekend, but I think it will top $250 million by January 3. Keep in mind that the week from December 25 to December 31 is one of the busiest movie weeks of the year.  |  IP: Logged Julio Roberto Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 938 From: Madrid, Madrid, Spain Registered: Oct 2008 posted 12-15-2009 06:36 AM                    It's bound to do well. Not a lot of competition. 3-D screens (often "the best ones") booked for weeks. 3D surcharge. Busiest time of year with lots of youngster on holidays looking for cheap entertainment. Even if the public "doesn't want to watch it" much, not a lot of alternatives. Also, it has been hyped to no end. Should've made <$50m and <$200m at the end. But due to all the above etc, it pbbl will do much more. If it would've opened against Twilight Moon or Harry Potter ... then it would've made much less.  |  IP: Logged Geoff Jones Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 579 From: Broomfield, CO, USA Registered: Feb 2006 posted 12-15-2009 09:23 AM                        Maybe I'm just being hopeful, but I think it's going to have legs. I think word of mouth is going to be a big factor, because the general public just isn't that interested in what they've seen in the previews. But according to the reviews, it's a blast. Transformers 2, which by all accounts was a complete turd, made $400m. Avatar will do better. Weekend 1 $80m Weekend 2 +10% Or maybe I'm just giving the public too much credit.  |  IP: Logged Todd McCracken Master Film Handler Posts: 263 From: Northridge, CA, USA Registered: Mar 2008 posted 12-15-2009 10:21 AM                    My guess is that this movie will have legs aplenty. 2 months in the top 5.  |  IP: Logged Tim Reed Better Projection Pays Posts: 5246 From: Northampton, PA Registered: Sep 1999 posted 12-15-2009 11:24 AM                       Nothing in the trailer compels me to see it, so I'm guessing a flop. I don't understand the appeal. But, then, I didn't want to see "Raiders of the Lost Ark" the first time around, either.  |  IP: Logged Mike Blakesley Film God Posts: 12767 From: Forsyth, Montana Registered: Jun 99 posted 12-15-2009 11:31 AM                        Roger Ebert gave it a 4-star review. (His top rating) www.rogerebert.com  |  IP: Logged Mark J. Marshall Film God Posts: 3188 From: New Castle, DE, USA Registered: Aug 2002 posted 12-15-2009 12:13 PM                    Roger Ebert wrote Beyond The Valley of the Dolls.  |  IP: Logged Sam Graham AKA: "The Evil Sam Graham". Wackiness ensues. Posts: 1431 From: Waukee, IA Registered: Dec 2004 posted 12-15-2009 12:17 PM                        Roger Ebert's given out ELEVEN four-star reviews since October alone. The man's gone soft. Still, my gut says Avatar will surprise everyone opening weekend AND over the long haul. I'm going with $110 million opening weekend, $80 million Christmas weekend, and over $300 million total through New Year's weekend. My gut also says I should go to Qdoba, so I am. Right now.  |  IP: Logged Bobby Henderson "Ask me about Trajan." Posts: 10973 From: Lawton, OK, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 12-15-2009 01:11 PM                     Why are we concentrating on opening weekend gross and 2nd week percentage drop? This is one of the reasons why it is flat out difficult or impossible for a good movie to have legs anymore. It just gets overbooked up front and then runs out of gas by the 4th week. If box office gross matters, the only thing that counts is the final tally after the movie has left theaters. I remember Tomb Raider grossing something like $70 million opening weekend a few years ago. Now that movie is practically forgotten. Just to play along, I think Avatar will gross at least $100 million opening weekend. Maybe even $120 million. I would be surprised if it didn't. Isn't the opening weekend gross record something like $150 million? Avatar will have at least some chance of challenging that. Buzz has been going on about this movie for more than a year. A LOT of TV commercials have been airing. The movie also doesn't have much of any competition right now either. Christmas weekend, Avatar will drop in the $66 to $75 million range and probably beat Sherlock Holmes on that weekend's business. I don't see Avatar breaking the box office record of Titanic. I don't think there's enough cross-over appeal for women to make that possible. The movie should have little trouble reaching the $400 million mark in the United States.  |  IP: Logged Joe Tommassello Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 547 From: Coatesville, PA, USA Registered: Jan 2008 posted 12-15-2009 01:48 PM                  I'm thinking $75M for the first weekend. Would have been a lot more one week earlier but it's the last weekend before Christmas. Probably drop off about 40% the second weekend ($45M)in a dead heat with Sherlock Holmes. Third weekend it holds up pretty well ($20M) and then it's over. I'm thinking about $250-300M domestic total.  |  IP: Logged Claude S. Ayakawa Film God Posts: 2738 From: Waipahu, Hawaii, USA Registered: Aug 2002 posted 12-15-2009 03:21 PM                        If the 3-D is as good as they say it is, how long can AVATAR play in that format until it has to make way for the next 3-D film? When is the next one due, and what is it? If it has to play in only 2-D after losing it's 3-D venues, how will this affect the movie's box office potential? As far as predicting the total amount the movie will make world wide, I still predict at least 700 million. -Claude  |  IP: Logged Tim Reed Better Projection Pays Posts: 5246 From: Northampton, PA Registered: Sep 1999 posted 12-15-2009 04:09 PM                       quote: Mark J. Marshall Roger Ebert wrote Beyond The Valley of the Dolls.  |  IP: Logged

All times are Central (GMT -6:00)

This topic comprises 9 pages: 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9

Printer-friendly view of this topic

Hop To: Select a Forum: Category: Operations -------------------- Digital Cinema Forum Film Handlers' Forum Large Format Forum Ground Level Feature Info, Trailer Attachments & REAL Credit Offsets Category: Community -------------------- Film-Yak Film Handlers' Movie Reviews The Afterlife Bob Maar's Joke-A-Thon Category: Classified -------------------- Equipment and Supplies Wanted/For Sale Help Wanted/Seeking Employment Category: System -------------------- Software Beta Testing Forum

The Film-Tech Forums are designed for various members related to the cinema industry to express their opinions, viewpoints and testimonials on various products, services and events based upon speculation, personal knowledge and factual information through use, therefore all views represented here allow no liability upon the publishers of this web site and the owners of said views assume no liability for any ill will resulting from these postings. The posts made here are for educational as well as entertainment purposes and as such anyone viewing this portion of the website must accept these views as statements of the author of that opinion and agrees to release the authors from any and all liability.