posted 05-22-2010 03:05 PM                    

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Imagining the Sony PlayStation 4 (PS4)

We speculate about Sony's next steps forward with the Playstation 4 and what it will take for the PS4 to beat out Microsoft and Nintendo from launch.

It’s never too early to begin peeking down the pipe at what’s to come. Though Sony just finished showing off its wares for the PlayStation 3 at this year’s E3, and wants you to believe it will be peddling new games on them for another decade, we couldn’t help but turn our eyes toward the very periphery of what’s to come. The next generation. The as-of-yet-unannounced PlayStation 4.

Let’s be clear: Sony hasn’t let a word slip about any game system to follow the PlayStation 3. But as learned observers of the industry, we’re willing to make some educated guesses about just what that might be. Will all of them come true? Almost certainly not. But it’s fun to play along, so close your eyes, put on your imagination cap and come along with us. OK, don’t close your eyes. You need them to read.
onLiveGoodbye, Discs

The current generation of Internet-connected consoles has already dipped a toe in the realm of digital distribution for games, but the next crop, including the PS4, will go even further. The PS4 will have no disc drive, depending entirely on an Internet connection for browsing and accessing games. Games may not be instantly playable (as they will be on the upcoming OnLive), but development will likely change to quicken download times significantly. For instance, you might be able to begin playing the first level of a game while the rest are still downloading, making them almost “streamable” in the same way that movies now are. The concept of downloadable content (DLC) will no longer be thought of as an add-on for existing games, but the game itself.

Sound unlikely? The upcoming PSP GO that Sony announced at this year’s E3 already makes the leap away from physical media, so Sony clearly favors the idea. On the PC, networks like Valve’s Steam have already gained acceptance from most gamers and developers for distributing games digitally, and many gamers now the skip the lines at malls for new releases to wait on download bars at home. Add in OnLive, if it ever comes to fruition, and Sony will have no choice but to distribute content online.
Lower Price, Fewer Features

Sony must have learned its lesson on this one, by now. The PlayStation 3 launched at $600, and though it stood head and shoulders above every other console on the market as the most powerful console, sales tanked on its price tag alone. But it wasn’t that bad a deal. The PS3 came with many features out of the box, like an high-def drive, wireless controller, and a hard drive, that drove the Xbox 360 to a comparable price if you included them all as accessories. But consumers favored the lower entry price.

Next time around, Sony will probably copy’s Microsoft’s routine, stripping the PS4 of all the non-essentials to get the base price down as low as possible. For instance, it may lack a disc drive, but that doesn’t mean you won’t be able to get one – it will just come as an accessory that costs extra. How low will it go? It’s almost impossible to tell, but $300 wouldn’t be a bad starting point.
Multimedia Machine

Expect to see the PlayStation 4 marketed as much as a home media server as a game console, because it will pretty much replace your cable box, video library, laptop, and the rental store down the block. You can already pull many of these tasks off with existing set-top boxes and consoles, like downloading 1080p movies, and streaming online video from sites like YouTube and Hulu. But you’ll also watch new shows live when they first air, as many people now rely on cable TV for.

We’re already seeing this happen. Look at the British channel Sky TV, which recently partnered with Microsoft to offer live streams of its programming via Xbox Live. We suspect more and more channels will choose this type of digital distribution in the future, since they’ll be able to command higher per-channel prices from individuals than they currently get from cable operators. That will finally give consumers a shot at the “ala carte” programming they’ve been clamoring for, paring out cable operators altogether and allowing individuals to pay only for the channels they watch.
Further Shrinkage

While the clutter of A/V boxes used to hide nicely in the deep cabinets under most CRT televisions, today’s flat screens don’t leave much room for junk. Fortunately, miniaturization has never let up its breakneck pace (as netbooks are a testament), and the next-gen hardware that ends up in the PS4 should be able to fit a box much smaller than the existing console – maybe even one small enough to hang from a bracket on the back of your TV, removing it from sight entirely. That might be an issue with a disc-based machine, or one with wired controllers, but the PS4 won’t require either.
More Power

This one has to be a given for any generation of game console: Power ratchets up a notch, making graphics look even closer to life. While the existing PlayStation 3 already does pretty well in this arena, with visuals that stand out as the best on any existing console, you can expect the PS4 to generate the kind of graphics than have hitherto only been available in the very highest echelon of gaming PCs. Think one shade away from cinematic, along the lines of Crysis running on one of today’s $8,000 rigs with every setting to high. To generate that type of realism, Sony will of course need to aim for higher clock speeds (or more cores) on its main central and graphics processors, but the PS4 will also likely include a devoted physics card for the heavy lifting behind the most engrossing effects: everything from trees realistically toppling in the right direction to realistic rain spatter and waves. And though the PlayStation 3 uses an Nvidia GPU, the next might actually tap Intel’s upcoming Larrabee chipset, according to some sources.
Sony Motion Controller DemoMotion Controller

Nintendo got the ball started with the Wii, but as this year’s E3 proves, everybody’s looking at new ways to control video games. Sony’s own attempt combines the accelerometers of a remote with the video capture of Microsoft’s Project Natal. By tracking a bright red ball atop the remote, the console can digitally insert objects into the hands of gamers or track movement with extreme precision, allowing it to act as a sword one moment and a handgun another.

Although the new controller will likely open up all sorts of opportunities for unique games – as it did with the Wii – Sony will likely also see it as a way to broaden the PS4’s appeal to non-gamers. Whether or not Sony rolls out this tech for the PlayStation 3, we suspect an intuitive motion controller will be used a primary selling point to put the PlayStation 4 into the hands of Ma and Pa.
Lean and Green

Ten years ago, even discussing the electricity demands or noise from a console seemed silly. Raw power was paramount. But with increasing environmental concerns, people don’t just want a machine that will produce movie-quality graphic experiences, they want a refined box that runs as cool, quiet and efficient as possible. Fortunately, smaller chip manufacturing processes make all of that possible without significant sacrifice. And PC manufacturers are leading the way. Look, for instance, at HP’s tiny, water-cooled Firebird, or the latest generation of inexpensive-but-powerful ATI Radeon cards. Not only do these technologies go easier on power bills, they keep things whisper-quiet, too, which will be absolutely critical if the system will have any credibility as a home media server. You can’t have whirring fans ruining the quiet scenes in 2001: A Space Odyssey, after all.

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