|
|
 
|
|
Author
|
Topic: Which 2014 Movies Could Reach $1 Billion?
|
Terry Lynn-Stevens
Phenomenal Film Handler
Posts: 1081
From: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Registered: Dec 2012
|
posted 04-08-2014 07:56 PM
Which 2014 Movies Could Reach $1 Billion?
by Ray Subers
Looking ahead at the 2014 schedule, which movies—if any—have a chance at reaching the coveted $1 billion mark?
With Frozen recently passing $1 billion and the Summer movie season right around the corner, now is as good a time as any to dive in to this question.
To date, only 16 movies have reached this level in their initial runs (Jurassic Park and The Phantom Menace needed 3D re-releases). With the rapid expansion of the foreign marketplace and the addition of 3D premiums, the chance of getting to $1 billion is higher than ever: in the past three years alone, nine different movies have made it there.
Of those nine, only one (Frozen) was an original movie. The rest are sequels, which were all able to grow an existing fanbase (rather than create one from scratch). It should be no surprise, then, that the 2014 releases with the best chance of reaching $1 billion are mostly franchise titles.
Of course, there's always a chance that something will surprise, as Frozen recently showed (it wasn't even included in this same feature last year).
Also worth noting: next year has three movies that are essentially guaranteed to earn over $1 billion: Avengers: Age of Ultron, Bond 24 and Star Wars: Episode VII. Other strong contenders include Fast & Furious 7, Minions and The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2.
Here the odds on some of 2014's biggest movies, broken down in to two categories: "sequels" and "originals."
Sequels
Captain America: The Winter Soldier (April)
By the end of its first weekend in the U.S., the Captain America sequel had already earned over $300 million worldwide. With strong reviews and good word-of-mouth, it seems like a safe bet that The Winter Soldier can wind up above Thor: The Dark World ($645 million). Still, it would require incredible holds to get to $1 billion, and it's going to run in to tough competition from The Amazing Spider-Man 2 beginning in mid-April. Odds: 10%
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May)
The Spider-Man character has always had a strong worldwide presence: all four of the movies so far have earned over $750 million. However, even with 3D premiums, 2012's The Amazing Spider-Man was the lowest-grossing one so far, which suggests this series has lost some of its luster.
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 does have a number of advantages, though. First, it has a better release date—the first weekend of May has historically been the best place to launch a comic book movie, and both The Avengers and Iron Man 3 recently over-performed in this spot. It also ups the ante with a handful of villains, including fan favorite Green Goblin.
Still, The Amazing Spider-Man only received a so-so response, which makes two underwhelming Spider-Man movies in a row. That's not a good trend, and usually foreshadows declining grosses. As of now, the best-case scenario for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is probably around $850 million worldwide. Odds: 20%
X-Men: Days of Future Past (May)
Bringing together the original cast and the First Class cast, X-Men: Days of Future Past is being positioned as the Avengers of X-Men movies. The original team delivers a strong jolt of nostalgia, while the First Class group has a significantly higher profile now than they did three years ago (in particular, Jennifer Lawrence is now a global superstar). Add in an exciting, high-stakes story involving time travel, and Days of Future Past is guaranteed to be the highest-grossing X-Men movie yet.
Unfortunately, the X-Men franchise doesn't have the greatest track record at the box office. Its domestic high is $234.4 million (2006's X-Men: The Last Stand), while its overseas high is $282.3 million (last year's The Wolverine). If it can grow the audience like The Avengers or The Dark Knight, it will clear $1 billion, but the odds of that happening are low. Odds: 20%.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June)
The first How to Train Your Dragon earned just shy of $500 million worldwide in early 2010. With goodwill from that well-received installment, and with a Summer that's oddly lacking animated competition, How to Train Your Dragon 2 is going to see significantly higher numbers. Last Summer's Despicable Me 2 leveraged its strong brand in to a 79 percent increase: if Dragon 2 does the same, it will fall just short of $900 million. Odds: 25%
Transformers: Age of Extinction (June)
From day one, the Transformers franchise was a huge moneymaker. It reached new heights with the third installment, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, which earned over $1.12 billion worldwide (currently sixth all-time). While Age of Extinction loses Shia LaBeouf, it adds Mark Wahlberg and dinosaur robots (so, probably a net gain).
With the questionable quality of the past two installments—and the general franchise fatigue that usually sets in by a fourth entry—Age of Extinction will almost certainly take a dip at the domestic box office. It's foolish to think this is made for U.S. audiences, though, and it should hold relatively steady overseas. In particular, look for it to put up record numbers in China: the last one earned over $145 million there, and Age of Extinction is partially set in the country. Odds: 70%
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July)
The first Apes reboot—2011's Rise of the Planet of the Apes—earned $482 million worldwide, and remains well-liked three years later. The sequel takes the story in an exciting new direction, pitting apes against humans in a post-apocalyptic wasteland. With a strong mid-July release date and the addition of 3D, it's undoubtedly going to get a big bump over its predecessor.
As with most of these other movies, though, the odds are extremely low that a sequel can double its predecessor's grosses. As a result, Apes is a very unlikely $1 billion contender. Odds: 15%
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 (November)
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire earned $865 million worldwide, which was a 25 percent improvement over its predecessor. If Mockingjay Part 1 experienced a similar boost, it would wind up close to $1.1 billion.
The odds of that happening again are slim. The first half of the Mockingjay book is largely set-up, and diverts significantly from the Hunger Games structure (there aren't any "games" this time around). Penultimate chapters in the Harry Potter and Twilight franchises—both of which were also the first half of a final book—only gained two percent on their predecessors. Mockingjay Part 1 will almost certainly do better than this, but $1 billion still isn't a lock. Odds: 40%
The Hobbit: There and Back Again (December)
The first Hobbit movie made it just past $1 billion, while The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug petered out around $950 million. The final installment will likely get back over $1 billion: audiences seemed to enjoy Smaug more than its predecessor, and series conclusions tend to see increased attendance. Odds: 55%
Originals
Godzilla (May)
Big-budget disaster movies tend to draw huge crowds, and Godzilla is a brand that resonates with global audiences. Back in 1998, Roland Emmerich's Godzilla earned $379 million worldwide; with the expanded foreign market and drastically higher ticket prices, it's hard to imagine this new movie earning a penny less than $500 million. Still, even if it does twice as much business as last Summer's Pacific Rim, it would still be well short of $1 billion. Odds: 15%
Maleficent (May)
Back in 2010, Alice in Wonderland became one of the rare "original" movies to earn over $1 billion worldwide. Remodeling iconic fantasies in big-budget live-action form has since become a major part of Disney's strategy. Unfortunately, Oz The Great and Powerful earned less than half as much as Alice in Wonderland, suggesting that movie's success was an anomaly. Featuring the Sleeping Beauty villain as the protagonist, Maleficent is an even tougher sell. Odds: 10%
Guardians of the Galaxy (August)
The Marvel Cinematic Universe is massively popular, and has delivered two $1 billion movies in the past two years (The Avengers, Iron Man 3). Guardians of the Galaxy has a very tenuous connection to those movies, and seems a bit too strange to become a global sensation. Still, never count out big-budget sci-fi: five years ago, who would have predicted a movie about Nav'i was going to earn over $2.7 billion? Odds: 5%
Interstellar (November)
Director Christopher Nolan's last three movies have earned over $2.9 billion worldwide. While two of those involved Batman, it's undeniable that Nolan is a major box office draw. His next movie Interstellar is currently shrouded in mystery, though it's at least known that it involves scientists attempting to travel through a wormhole in space. Assuming the movie mostly delivers on its promise, it's hard to imagine it earns much less than Nolan's 2010 hit Inception ($825 million). Odds: 25%
Big Hero 6 (November)
Disney Animation is coming off their biggest hit yet in Frozen, which is poised to pass $1.1 billion in the next week or two. The next movie from the animation house is Big Hero 6, which will also benefit from its Marvel roots. Still, similar Disney Animation movie Wreck-It Ralph opened at the same time in 2012 and couldn't crack $500 million. Earning twice as much would be surprising. Odds: 5%
http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3816&p=.htm
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
|
Mike Blakesley
Film God
Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99
|
posted 04-08-2014 11:08 PM
I think the whole current "Spider-Man" series is suffering from the "too-soon" problem. It would have been better if they'd waited, say, 6 or 8 more years before rebooting it. But, I understand Sony would have lost the rights to the character to Disney if they waited too long between movies -- so this is what we've come down to. Movies not made for artistic reasons, but slapped together just to hang onto a franchise, never mind if they're warranted by demand (or any good).
I'm not too sure what to think about Maleficent. It has the whole Disney marketing machine behind it of course, and obviously Angelina Jolie has a lot of fans, but audiences often don't care for a super-star in a role like that (I'm thinking of Halle Berry in "Catwoman", or George Clooney's "Batman" disaster) because they're TOO famous. People might have a hard time forgetting that she's Angelina Jolie, which is necessary for a movie like this to work. I'm also not so sure about making the "bad guy" the title of the movie....how is Maleficent going to win our sympathy? It will be interesting, that's for sure.
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All times are Central (GMT -6:00)
|
|
Powered by Infopop Corporation
UBB.classicTM
6.3.1.2
The Film-Tech Forums are designed for various members related to the cinema industry to express their opinions, viewpoints and testimonials on various products, services and events based upon speculation, personal knowledge and factual information through use, therefore all views represented here allow no liability upon the publishers of this web site and the owners of said views assume no liability for any ill will resulting from these postings. The posts made here are for educational as well as entertainment purposes and as such anyone viewing this portion of the website must accept these views as statements of the author of that opinion
and agrees to release the authors from any and all liability.
|
Home
Printer-friendly view of this topic