|
|
Author
|
Topic: New York Snow Blizzard
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
James Westbrook
Phenomenal Film Handler
Posts: 1133
From: Lubbock, Texas, Usa
Registered: Mar 2006
|
posted 01-27-2015 01:47 PM
Weather is chaos. Though it seemed our ancestors were able to predict when it would rain, or snow, by certain nuances in the clouds, how the sunset looked, what the animals were doing, when flys clung to the door screens... Then there was the science of weather, where high and low pressure systems were recognized, warm and cold fronts. Predictions could be made for about 24 hours but accuracy was never assumed. They knew it is chaos. Today the "forecast models", relying on historical data, is constantly used. And now there are mesonets all over the country, recording wind, temp, rainfall, barometric pressure. Still, no accuracy in forecasting. Where did the modern yahoos go wrong? Forgetting that weather is chaos.
| IP: Logged
|
|
Mitchell Dvoskin
Phenomenal Film Handler
Posts: 1869
From: West Milford, NJ, USA
Registered: Jan 2001
|
posted 01-27-2015 04:10 PM
> Weather is chaos.
No. I do not agree. Weather is physics. As you said, weather prediction is a matter of air pressure, temperature, moisture content, wind speed, etc. They can predict with a great deal of accuracy as far out as they can accurately measure, and that is the rub. When the conditions do not permit accurate measurement, they measure what they can and use various "forecast models" to guess what will happen based upon the measurement they do have, rather than clearly stating that the current state of technology does not permit an accurate forecast and these are the possibilities.
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
Leo Enticknap
Film God
Posts: 7474
From: Loma Linda, CA
Registered: Jul 2000
|
posted 01-29-2015 02:29 AM
quote: Mitchell Dvoskin Nobody can figure out how the weather people got it so wrong.
Sorry to sound smug, but I can.
I first noticed this syndrome after the so-called "hurricane" in 1987. Michael Fish's infamous weather forecast broadcast a few hours before it hit ("Some woman has just called me up ... says there'll be a hurricane tonight ... well don't worry, there won't") became one of the defining moments in British TV history. After that, it seemed to me that weather forecasters would far rather predict an apocalypse that failed to materialize than fail to predict one that did. In other words, if it's a choice between crying wolf or missing an actual alarm, then crying wolf is the lesser of two evils.
As a general rule, I think short-term (as in, from about a week out) forecasting is pretty accurate, by and large. But it can get the precise timings and locations a bit out, as in this case. The problems come when a major metropolitan area is potentially affected, as happened, here, when the disruption stakes are that much higher.
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
|
All times are Central (GMT -6:00)
|
|
Powered by Infopop Corporation
UBB.classicTM
6.3.1.2
The Film-Tech Forums are designed for various members related to the cinema industry to express their opinions, viewpoints and testimonials on various products, services and events based upon speculation, personal knowledge and factual information through use, therefore all views represented here allow no liability upon the publishers of this web site and the owners of said views assume no liability for any ill will resulting from these postings. The posts made here are for educational as well as entertainment purposes and as such anyone viewing this portion of the website must accept these views as statements of the author of that opinion
and agrees to release the authors from any and all liability.
|