Coronavax experiences?

[Steve Guttag]

For the 99%ers I've bumped into on Facebook, I've noticed that many people have a "friend" list of about 300 or so. So which 3 people are you good with dying from C19? And how many are you good with surviving but having a bad time with it? Or just get stuck for a couple of seconds and push that potential down to less than 1 "friend." 99% odds sound good when just thinking of oneself. But if you then realize, the quantity of people one knows means that if you know more than 100 people, you are likely to know someone that will succumb to it. When you multiply a 1% chance against a 95% effective vaccine, you push your chance of a bad outcome to .05% (99.95% of a good outcome)...that should normally put most people to the point that none of their "friends" have a bad outcome. Unfortunately, the vaccines were not in time to have had their maximum potential for my friend list. It's not that it can't happen but the odds are SO much better and in real numbers, it becomes significant.

[Bobby Henderson]

We have a LOT of C19-deniers and various other anti-vax kooks here. I'm afraid all of those people will have to learn the hard way about the SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19. It only becomes "real" to them if they get severely ill with COVID-19 or someone they care about is hospitalized or killed by it. For some of the knuckleheads that isn't even enough. The lady in charge of Lawton's office for the State Department of Health told our civic club about people who were literally dying from COVID-19 yet still denying they were infected with it. It's all a conspiracy! It's just the flu!

[Steve Guttag]

I think most states will pull back from any sort of mask/distancing requirements by July. By then most every adult will have had the opportunity to be fully vaccinated. Pfizer is about to get the green light on vaccinating 12-16 year olds too. It will be interesting to see how large a "herd" we get by then because if it isn't big enough...there will be a large uptick by the unvaccinated and, unfortunately, by those who cannot be vaccinated and will be exposed by those that "chose" not to be.

[Bobby Henderson]

I think the proverbial ship has already sailed on us having any chance at achieving herd immunity. We have too many conspiracy theorists, anti-vax people and minorities still mindful of the history how their demographic was victimized by intentional medical malpractice. It is fueling a great deal of vaccine hesitancy. I would be surprised is the vaccination levels of the American public get above 70% any time soon.

Meanwhile much of the developing world, such as nearly all of the African continent, has very little access to the vaccines. There are billions of people who desperately want the vaccines. Meanwhile us douchebags in America are turning up our noses at it. That is compounding the bad situation and giving the SARS-CoV-2 virus even more of an advantage at staying alive and a better chance to evolve.

The situation has me a little freaked out. That's because new SARS-CoV-2 variants are continuing to appear while there is plenty of vulnerable people for the virus to infect. I just read about a new "Texas Variant" which they dubbed BV-1, short for Brazos Valley where it was identified. It's an off-shoot of the UK B117 variant. Scientists at the University of Texas say early testing suggests this new variant is even more contagious and has a greater ability to evade existing antibodies from previous COVID-19 infection. The idiot vaccine refuse-niks out there can't seem to grasp the idea that we are in a time sensitive situation. The longer we fart around the more we give this virus a chance to kick our asses even harder.

[Lyle Romer]

I think the proverbial ship has already sailed on us having any chance at achieving herd immunity. We have too many conspiracy theorists, anti-vax people and minorities still mindful of the history how their demographic was victimized by intentional medical malpractice. It is fueling a great deal of vaccine hesitancy. I would be surprised is the vaccination levels of the American public get above 70% any time soon.

I don't disagree, however, the vaccine hesitancy appears to be much more age based than anything else. 65+ has an acceptance rate over 80% and will likely end up close to 90%. As the younger demographics have opened up for eligibility, the appointments have filled more slowly or gone unused.

A Jamaican-American woodworker that is doing some work for me and is in his 60's got vaccinated. His daughter (in her 30's) told him she won't take the vaccine (I didn't ask for her reasoning).

[Bobby Henderson]

I don't disagree, however, the vaccine hesitancy appears to be much more age based than anything else. 65+ has an acceptance rate over 80% and will likely end up close to 90%. As the younger demographics have opened up for eligibility, the appointments have filled more slowly or gone unused.

People in younger age groups are part of the problem with vaccine hesitancy. We all know it's common for people in younger age groups to have a sort of immortality complex with all sorts of lifestyle choices and other irresponsible decisions. Like having a huge party indoors at a night club with no masks, social distancing, etc. Naturally they put off getting vaccinated. They'll get around to it when they get around to it. The only thing that will light a fire under the butts of people in those groups is if the situation is made personal by a friend or family member being severely affected by COVID-19.

Here in my part of the US the bigger problem is very much political. Just look at the maps the CDC and others are releasing tracking vaccine hesitancy. The issue is very clearly most prevalent in "red" states. No question at all about it. Here in Joke-lahoma a bunch of the vaccine refuse-niks act as if they're worried the vaccine will turn them into Democrats. It's willful stupidity and ignorance wrapped up in layers of conspiracy theory and misinformation. If it weren't for the risk of the SARS-CoV-2 virus being able to evolve into something that hits the re-start button on this entire pandemic I'd just say let the fools take their chances and get infected. Let God or mother nature thin out the herd.

[Mike Blakesley]

People in younger age groups are part of the problem with vaccine hesitancy. We all know it's common for people in younger age groups to have a sort of immortality complex with all sorts of lifestyle choices and other irresponsible decisions. Like having a huge party indoors at a night club with no masks, social distancing, etc. Naturally they put off getting vaccinated.

Another argument you hear (when somebody dies or gets very sick) is, "Well, they had pre-existing issues" or "Well, they were really old" etc. I myself have seen a few of my family members (maybe 10 or 12) get Covid but nobody has lost their smell or taste; nobody got severely sick or died. We had one friend die from it so far; he was 73, overweight and had heart and breathing issues. The father of one of my employees died from it, but he was 82 and had heart problems. So.... I'm curious how many people who don't have other underlying issues are getting seriously sick from Covid. That number is probably pretty low in the big picture.

[Bobby Henderson]

Another number that's even lower in the big picture: adverse reactions to the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. A person's odds of being hospitalized or dying from COVID-19 are far greater than the odds of having an harmful or fatal reaction to a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Obviously too many Americans really suck at math and are gullible enough to feed on a lot of BS. And there is plenty of BS being spread about the vaccines.

As to pre-existing conditions most Americans have some kind of pre-existing condition. Take your pick from obesity, adult-onset diabetes, high blood pressure, smoking, drinking in excess, poor nutrition, lack of exercise, etc. Many Americans have two or more of those factors. Our nation is not exactly a poster child of healthy living. In fact it's almost turning into a "patriotic" or even political thing to deliberately eat unhealthy foods and partake in other self-destructive vices. There is a certain sect of our population and culture that looks upon someone such as a vegetarian as if he is a communist traitor.

I think I'm a pretty healthy person, especially for my age. I work out 5 or 6 days a week, around 90-120 minutes per workout. I don't smoke, don't do drugs and don't drink alcohol very often. I had a minor case of COVID-19 in December. But it affected me enough to eliminate my sense of taste and smell for a week. And those senses have still not fully recovered. Worse yet, those two senses have been altered a bit where some foods don't taste the same and other things smell odd. My problems are tiny compared to those of other people, such as one friend I had who died of COVID-19 in March.

[Leo Enticknap]

A lot of it boils down to personal experience. I understand and acknowledge those who accuse the vaccine hesitant of being selfish, because their hesitancy enables the bug to spread further. However, those whose personal experience doesn't correlate with the warnings will struggle to take those warnings as seriously as those who do. It goes back to Propaganda 101: inducing people to change their beliefs is close to impossible, but inducing them to modify existing ones can be done.

To take another example - road accidents. I knew two people who have been killed in them over the last decade, and I have been involved in four since 2013 (all thankfully minor), all of them caused by negligent driver error by a third party. A couple of evenings ago, a local radio station announced, almost cheerfully, that "...the 605 is a real mess tonight. There's a multiple fatality accident on the northbound stretch between Peck Road and the 10. You really want to check out the surface streets if you're anywhere near that one, 'cause it'll be stop/start for hours if you get caught in it." The tone of his voice was such that three people killed (I later found out) was just a part of the normal rush hour experience, and a price we're happily willing to pay for most of us getting to and from work in one piece. I almost wondered if they were about to start playing Another One Bites the Dust.

Something like 6,400 people (I forget the precise figure) died on California's roads last year. As an analogy to the "most coronavirus fatalities were old and/or ill" qualifier, a lot of those deceased were earning themselves Darwin awards at the time (doing a Tiger Woods but not getting away with it, in other words) ... but there were innocent third parties, too. And on top of those 6,400 deceased, there were likely tens of thousands hospitalized, and hundreds of thousands on top of that who had to deal with minor injuries and/or serious economic fallout.

But yet no-one seems to care. The basic rules of the road (speed limits, keeping a safe distance to the vehicle in front, signaling when turning or changing lanes, making sure your headlight bulbs work and your tires aren't bald, etc.) are not observed by 99.9% drivers, and not enforced 99.9% of the time. All those deaths, injuries, and economic damage caused by careless and aggressive driving are considered to be a price worth paying for not having to drive carefully and with consideration for other road users. I feel strongly about this, having been a road accident victim myself and known people who lost their lives in road accidents. But I'm in a minority. On the rare occasions that I voice my opinions on the matter - that road traffic laws need to be enforced consistently and in a way that ensures everyone drives to the standard they did when they passed their test, and if they don't, they need to have their license revoked - it's me that's considered the kook. If you have no personal experience of the damage road accidents can do, I can understand why. On the subject of Tiger Woods, the media's reaction to that accident seems to sum up public opinion. He wasn't drunk, so he did nothing wrong. 85mph in a 40 limit? No problem with that. I did not see one article or editorial criticizing him for his decision to do that on a public road. Same thing when Caitlyn Jenner (who was still Bruce at the time), rear-ended a stationary vehicle in Malibu at 40mph, killing its occupant. Jenner was alleged to have been texting at the time (but I guess the evidence was inconclusive, because AFAIK, Jenner was never indicted for any offense related to the accident). Once again, I saw no criticism of Jenner for having done that, either at the time or since. At the risk of getting political, given the latest news about this individual, I wonder if there will be any public discussion of that accident in the coming months.

In contrast, I don't know of anyone who has died or experienced serious symptoms from C19, and several who have had very minor, short lasting symptoms. I do, however, know many who have lost their jobs and suffered financially in other ways because of the lockdowns and restrictions. This personal experience has led me to the belief that the lockdowns and restrictions represent a cure worse than the disease. If my experience had been different, I would possibly be less empathetic to the vaccine hesitant.

I think most states will pull back from any sort of mask/distancing requirements by July.

I suspect that some won't (e.g. California and Michigan), but if they don't, the requirements will become like speed limits - almost completely ignored, and enforced only when the cities and counties involved are short of a bit of cash.

[Steve Guttag]

Isn't Michigan where the legislature restricted the Governor's authority on continuing restrictions? California is another story (on many fronts). If all of the other states open fully up, California will feel a continual pressure to follow suit.

[Leo Enticknap]

If I remember correctly, there was an initiative to do that, but it wasn't ultimately successful.

Had the second shot on Friday morning; went to bed about 12 hours later, believing that I'd gotten away without any significant symptoms, but woke up the next day with swelling and pain in my ankles, knees and hips that was so bad it was almost impossible to stand, plus a slight headache. Took a day and a half for the pain and swelling to subside. I'm glad I heeded the advice from multiple people and scheduled the second shot for a Friday.

[Carsten Kurz]

I hear that there seems to be a trend in the US to skip the second shot of the vaccination, some people seem to believe this is a useful method to 'balance' both risks - one dose is enough, having just half of the vaccination risk, and just a little bit of Covid-19 risk - can't be wrong, huh?

[Frank Cox]

Skipping (or at least delaying) the second dose is the official government policy in Canada. After the first dose your second will be available "up to" four months later.

The website for making appointments in Saskatchewan says that there are no appointments being made for any second doses at this time.

[Carsten Kurz]

Well, skipping means 'not turning up for your second shot appointment'.

The UK was basically only issuing first shots since December, they had a first shot rate of around 50% lately before they even started making appointments for the second shot. Not the worst strategy, and Canada did the same. They are at 33% for first and just at 3% for second shots.

[Steve Guttag]

I hear that there seems to be a trend in the US to skip the second shot of the vaccination...?

One of the late-night talk shows had a good one on this...to paraphrase "Since when have Americans passed up on seconds?" It does seem un-American, somehow.

Back on topic.

I got my second shot (Pfizer) a week ago. My experience was a more intense version of the first. Sore arm but the intensity seemed about 25% more and lasting 50% longer. The only other side effects I noticed would be tough to pin on the shot...a headache (on the sides of my head that would come and go) and the occasional hot flash (maybe I'm going through "the change"). Since the weather/humidity/temperatures are going through convulsions every few hours here in the Middle-Atlantic US, I may just be reacting to barometric pressure changes, or pollen changes or the shot. If it was the shot, then I'd say the total duration was about 4-5 days. The headaches were never THAT bad but one night I did take a Tylenol and it subsided enough to let me go to sleep...I woke up in the morning without the headache. I had none of Leo's sleep interruptions, thankfully.

Another possible side-effect would be some drowsiness. Others have complained about it but I've been burning the candle at both ends for a bit now (I have two theatres opening up next week so it has been a juggling act.