Cinemacon 2021

[Leo Enticknap]

I fear it's becoming increasingly likely that it'll be canceled again. The State of Nevada has just reintroduced an indoor mask-wearing requirement, which is regardless of vaccination status. Given that absolutely everything takes place indoors (screenings, seminars, trade show floors, all eating and socializing), this means that everyone attending will be required to wear a mask continuously for 12-14 hours a day. It'll be 120 in the shade outside (I did a service call in Vegas last week, and it was 117 in the parking lot when I got out - that was in late July, and the hottest months there are traditionally August and September), so even finding somewhere outdoors for some relief won't be a comfortable option. I can't see anyone beyond a tiny minority being willing to put up with that. I've spoken to two people in the last 24 hours who were thinking about coming, but this new development has made them decide against it. Added to which, several states and the federal government have publicly stated that they aren't ruling out the reimposition of more severe restrictions, including lockdowns and business closures. That makes booking use it or lose it plane tickets, etc. a serious risk.

I'll go if it happens, but I'm not looking forward to it. About an hour is as long as I can tolerate wearing a mask without skin inflammation on my face, ears aching from the straps, and my glasses fogging up to the point at which doing any work is impossible.

It's the workforce in Vegas that I feel sorry for. Reimposing the mask mandate will kill the town stone dead, for a second time.

[Steve Guttag]

At this point, I'm still going. I have multiple meetings lined up with both manufacturers and customers. As some of the old Kinoton literature used to state: "...subject to chance." While I'm completely against the mask mandates for vaccinated persons (the risk factor, even though elevated is still down near the "struck by lightening" sort of risk), there are numerous placed I've worked, even in the past month were masks were still the rule. I did explain there are times when I will not be able to, for safety reasons (I won't wear a mask while changing coolant (if it gets onto the mask, it will hold the glycol against your skin and you won't even realize it...if the glycol hits my skin in a "splash" I'll immediately wash. Also, when I cut aperture plates...which happened this past month too...I will blow the dust off the plate and after 40 years, I'm not changing my habits...so I had the booth to myself during those times as that also satisfied the requirements.

That said, I have also restocked my masks. If work so requires (and DC just joined the stupid mask mandate). But, if it isn't for work, I'll likely avoid your state/business if masks are required for much more than getting in the door (e.g. If when I sit down and start consuming food, like in a theatre, I can pull it off). Since most jurisdictions have a "while eating/drinking" exclusion clause, I wonder how many will perpetually be carrying a snack or beverage just to claim that they are eating/drinking. When I'm on a plane (or train...which has happened this year too)...I'm either in eating mode or not...so if I start on that can of soda/juice...I'm done when it is empty.

How much masks impact businesses are probably going to be a function of the general thinking of the area residences. I've heard people claim that they will make masks part of their daily lives even once C19 is a memory. They liked not getting sick in 2020. Others, quite the opposite, naturally.

At this point, I have not heard any indication that CinemaCon will not go on as planned. I'm sure that the attendance will lite.

About the only time I plan to be outside is when crossing the road between hotels.

[Leo Enticknap]

Obviously, discussing the reasons would mean getting political. Suffice as to say that the only logic behind the politics is the new CDC data that appears to show that if you're vaccinated, your chances of becoming significantly ill from the Indian variant are, as you say, effectively zero; but you can infect others who are unvaccinated, the proportion of which is still high enough to risk straining the healthcare system if most of them get ill. There is also the issue that no vax is available for under 12s as yet, though as with the original version, the Indian variant does not appear to be making children seriously ill in significant numbers. But the bottom line is that those of us who have been vaxxed are being asked to make further sacrifices for those who refuse to.

If work so requires (and DC just joined the stupid mask mandate). But, if it isn't for work, I'll likely avoid your state/business if masks are required for much more than getting in the door.

That is exactly my feeling. However, as I'll be working the trade show booth for whole duration, I can't see any way I'll be able to avoid having to wear one for 8-10 hours straight.

Anecdotally, the manager of a suburban 11-plex I service told me a few days ago that on the first weekend after LA County reimposed its mask mandate, attendance was down about 60% compared with the previous weekend. Most of the customers that did come took their masks off for the duration of the movie once seated, even though, per the ordinance, they weren't supposed to.

As for planes, they've thought of that: throughout the last flight I was on, we were subjected to constant hectoring through the PA to finish our coffees as soon as possible and put our masks back on.

[Marcel Birgelen]

I can still somehow understand why you would want to have a mask mandate for people transiting in public spaces in areas with high infection rates, as the Delta/Indian variant is really highly contagious and was/is responsible for quite a flare-up in many European countries, after they reopened stuff like night clubs and allowed for some limited festivals and public gatherings to happen.

But having a mandate to wear your mask during the movie, with some proper distancing in place, should really be uniformly dropped, as many data have now has indicated that the rate of infection via this vector is really negligible.

[Steve Guttag]

Leo, as I said...once I open the can...I'm drinking until I'm done. I don't nurse it for the whole flight or anything and that is when, if I'm eating anything, I'll do that too. I generally am wearing noise cancelling headphones so whatever prompting the PA is putting out is summarily ignored too.

Whereas the infection rate of vaccinated people remains very low, even with Delta, the numbers don't justify the mandate. It's not political, it's math. Yes, Delta has increased one's likelihood, yes a vaccinated person that is truly infected (not just tests positive...that is a surface test), can transmit the virus as much as an unvaccinated, it still comes back to that they make up something on the order of 0.5% of the people infected (not the entire population). Relatively speaking...it is a VERY small number. I understand and appreciate those people that feel it is too much of a risk for them, after all, your protection is based on a percentage too and if you increase your pool (travel to a "hot zone"), you've increased your chances of being a breakthrough case. However, that doesn't mean everyone has to feel the same. Nothing in life comes with a 100% guarantee. At some point, everyone has their risk/reward plateau. So far, the CDC has not shown any numbers that indicate that vaccinated people are causing any significant spread because there are so few data points with them...being vaccinated and all.

As of yesterday and pertaining to the Delta variant:

The rate of breakthrough cases reported among those fully vaccinated is well below 1% in all reporting states, with Connecticut the lowest (0.01%) and Oklahoma the highest (0.9%).

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covi...data-analysis/

So, Bobby needs to mask up and stay away.. Again, those numbers are for those that have tested positive, not the entire population.

[Mark Gulbrandsen]

I was invited to go to the ICTA that was held here in Nashville a week ago and my Doctor definitely recommended that I not attend because of the low vaccination rate here. I would have to see what it's like in Vegas before I even considered it.

[Steve Guttag]

Vegas is considered a "Hot Spot." It is in that southern most tip of the state. So, if Nashville is a no-go for you, then so is Vegas. then again, pretty much your whole state is a Hot Spot.

Source: CDC:

Screen Shot 2021-07-31 at 8.53.40 PM.png

[Marcel Birgelen]

How can you reliably establish a vaccination rate of an event like Cinemacon or like a hotel in Vegas? It's not like the vaccination rate of locals is of any purpose for those kinds of trips.

[Steve Guttag]

They are going by the county. I know that airports are doing random temperature tests (had it happen to me a couple of times this year). But yeah, like other places with heavy tourist trade, the vaccination rates are going to be an approximation.

At Cinema itself, in order to get a badge you'll have to show proof of vaccination or test negative (within the 3-days prior, I believe). So, so long as people stay pretty much to show attendees, one's exposure will be reduced and actually a relatively safe spot. It will be when people go out and mingle in the restaurants with "others" that the unknowns will increase. For me, I plan to stick mostly to the show or my room and minimally interact outside of those places...and I'm fully vaccinated (team Pfizer).

[Carsten Kurz]

I remember there was some doubt discussed on the latest ISDCF zoom meeting about wether Cinemacon would actually happen. The meeting before, everyone was pretty sure it would.
Now, 'doubt' is a significant aspect on it's own.

[Mike Blakesley]

We are booked for CinemaCon but with the mask crap coming back, I'm losing all enthusiasm for going. I won't be sad if they cancel it, but if movies start falling off the schedule again, we might as well just all close the doors for good because we will be fucked as an industry. Well, we're probably already fucked (as fast as the studios can make it happen, at least) but that would accelerate it.

We're supposed to go to Disney World in October and I'm not even excited about that.

[Mark Gulbrandsen]

How can you reliably establish a vaccination rate of an event like Cinemacon or like a hotel in Vegas? It's not like the vaccination rate of locals is of any purpose for those kinds of trips.

In this country at least, we are issued CDC proof of vaccination cards when you receive your vaccine(s). And they now have to be presented to get into many business establishments here.because the vaccinated over here are getting totally fed up with the selfish anti-vaxers / anti-masker. When registering for Cinemacon, the cards for people from the USA and other countries that issued them could be requested in order to gain access to the show and events. IMHO, that is what should happen at Cinemacon. Also, many major businesses, and Hospitals are requiring all employees to be vaccinated by a certain date or they either have to be tested weekly, or they lose their job. And yes, Judges here have already deemed that legal...

[Mark Gulbrandsen]

Vegas is considered a "Hot Spot." It is in that southern most tip of the state. So, if Nashville is a no-go for you, then so is Vegas. then again, pretty much your whole state is a Hot Spot.

Source: CDC:

Screen Shot 2021-07-31 at 8.53.40 PM.png

Well, pretty much every GOP State is a hot spot. Last I checked, the vaccination rate of Tennessee was still only 38%. The only GOP State that was ahead until recently, was Utah. But now it's slipping fast again. And the food is also lot better here, so I am staying! But with a lot of GOP members contracting this latest variant... hopefully they'll all get vaccinated. Why it was not mandated in the first place is beyond me. Polio vaccine was mandated. I remember getting it and the TB vaccine in grade school. This link goes to an informative paper on Vaccine Mandates. It shows the decrease for each one mandated was over 95%!!

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-man...es_chptr13.pdf

[Leo Enticknap]

Actually, the entire country apart from the north-east tip looks hot. California, Oregon, Washington, and Nevada are all mainly red (in the infection statistic sense, not the political one), and they all have Democratic administrations. And we have to be clear what is meant by "hot spot." Positive test results are effectively meaningless in evaluating the public health threat. Vaccination does not prevent infection: it prevents illness. Having anti-malware software on your computer will not prevent you from receiving an email with a malicious attachment. Your hard drive would, therefore, "test positive." But it will try to stop you if you attempt to execute the malicious code that it's been taught to recognize, and then encourage you to delete it. The same applies with C19 vaccination.

Here are the current statistics for breakthrough infections:

cdc_stats.PNG
1,263 deaths out of 165 million or so vaccinated during the first half of this year. That means roughly 0.00075% of those 165 million vaccinated individuals, nationwide, went on to die of C19.

To put those figures in perspective, roughly half as many people again were killed in road accidents in California alone in the same period (the annual figure is typically between 3,000 and 4,000 - 3,273 last year, for example). And California's population is only 38 million, not the 165 million from which those 1,263 C19 deaths are taken.

Therefore, the figures that really matter are hospitalizations and deaths, not positive test results. Also, the vast majority of those C19 deaths were over 65, and I think it's safe to speculate that most of them will have had significant pre-existing conditions. All of which makes it nonsensical to impose restrictions on vaccinated individuals who are in good health. You are just destroying the economy for zero public health benefit.

As for vaccination cards, they are a simple paper form, that an eight-year old with Microsoft Publisher could make a convincing forgery of. Even so, someone has already been busted for stealing blanks, presumably with the intention of selling them to anti-vaxxers. If employers and businesses start to require proof of vaccination in significant numbers, I predict that a flood of phony ones will enter circulation. Unless you actually check the data on them (was this batch of vax actually used at this site on this date?), they are effectively worthless.

[Mark Gulbrandsen]

Actually, the entire country apart from the north-east tip looks hot. California, Oregon, Washington, and Nevada are all mainly red (in the infection statistic sense, not the political one), and they all have Democratic administrations. And we have to be clear what is meant by "hot spot." Positive test results are effectively meaningless in evaluating the public health threat. Vaccination does not prevent infection: it prevents illness. Having anti-malware software on your computer will not prevent you from receiving an email with a malicious attachment. Your hard drive would, therefore, "test positive." But it will try to stop you if you attempt to execute the malicious code that it's been taught to recognize, and then encourage you to delete it. The same applies with C19 vaccination.

Here are the current statistics for breakthrough infections:

cdc_stats.PNG
1,263 deaths out of 165 million or so vaccinated during the first half of this year. That means roughly 0.00075% of those 165 million vaccinated individuals, nationwide, went on to die of C19.

To put those figures in perspective, roughly half as many people again were killed in road accidents in California alone in the same period (the annual figure is typically between 3,000 and 4,000 - 3,273 last year, for example). And California's population is only 38 million, not the 165 million from which those 1,263 C19 deaths are taken.

Therefore, the figures that really matter are hospitalizations and deaths, not positive test results. Also, the vast majority of those C19 deaths were over 65, and I think it's safe to speculate that most of them will have had significant pre-existing conditions. All of which makes it nonsensical to impose restrictions on vaccinated individuals who are in good health. You are just destroying the economy for zero public health benefit.

As for vaccination cards, they are a simple paper form, that an eight-year old with Microsoft Publisher could make a convincing forgery of. Even so, someone has already been busted for stealing blanks, presumably with the intention of selling them to anti-vaxxers. If employers and businesses start to require proof of vaccination in significant numbers, I predict that a flood of phony ones will enter circulation. Unless you actually check the data on them (was this batch of vax actually used at this site on this date?), they are effectively worthless.

The two that I have can not be forged. They have a special type of seal in the form of a bar code that only Vanderbilt M.U. uses that would have to be some how replicated for each patient.