Store Shelves Looking Bare Again And Tire Places Are Overwhelmed.

[Mark Gulbrandsen]

Been to Kroger twice over the weekend. Normally because of the kidney transplant and my now compromised immune system, I rarely go there and only very early in the morning. On Saturday morning I noticed a lot of bare shelf areas, and I mean A LOT! I asked one of the stock guys what was going on and he said Kroger can't even keep in's warehouse fully stocked any more. At the tire placed, namely Discount tires or Tire Discounters they are booked solid all day long. I bought 4 new tires this morning, but have to go back at 12:15 to get them installed. Things are getting crazy again and apparently it has to do with the container ships all backed up at Long Beach. What I wonder is WHY is that all of a sudden a problem. It wasn't last year..

[Bobby Henderson]

The shipping backlog issue is complicated. And it's far more complicated than the tired, bullshit claim "people don't want to work anymore, they want to stay on welfare."

One of the basic causes of the problem is people are just buying a lot more stuff. Demand is far higher than what suppliers predicted. They cut way back on everything at the start of the pandemic and didn't expect consumer demand to spike back immediately in many key areas. It has had a ripple effect everywhere.

Compound that issue with the US having out-sourced so much of its manufacturing overseas. It takes time to get goods produced at factories in China or elsewhere, orders filled and shipped. A lot of product has to already be on the water well in advance of the customer actually ordering the product to avoid wait times measured in months or even years. We're experiencing what happens when demand was not forecast correctly.

Then there are longer term problems, such as the shortage of truck drivers that has persisted years before the pandemic. That problem alone has multiple factors, one of which is not enough people willing to drive commercial trucks can deliver a clean piss test. Getting a CDL isn't (and shouldn't be) very easy. Driving trucks long haul isn't a pleasant or fun job and it's full of hazards, such as all the other idiots on the highway who can't keep their eyes off their phones and on the roads. Truckers are targeted with insurance fraud schemes, like break-checking a trucker to get rear-ended and collect on phony soft tissue injuries. Pay scales are probably going to have to increase a good bit to make trucking jobs more attractive to "better quality" workers.

All of these commercial ships are trying to dock in Long Beach, which is in one of the nation's worst high cost of living metros. What does an average dock worker make and how does that compare to cost of living in greater Los Angeles? What does it cost a trucker to even stop there for the night? I imagine the cost of doing business thru that port is sky freaking high. Isn't the Panama Canal expansion complete? Why aren't more ships docking in Gulf Coast cities and East Coast ports like Wilmington?

Then there's the issue of getting the product on the shelves. Lots of retail and service businesses have been struggling with labor shortages. Hundreds of thousands of women have left the workforce because the sky high and rising cost of day care offsets the pay they were making. Many women are money ahead by staying home and watching the kids themselves. The US real estate market has been gamed-up via speculators from all over the globe. Very few new houses are being built due to ridiculous materials prices. We have face-less people buying existing properties here in freaking Lawton and letting the properties sit empty, just to hold onto them like trading cards. Meanwhile soldiers reporting to Fort Sill are having to search as far as an hour's drive away just to find decent housing. This situation is making a lot of low wage service industry jobs very difficult to fill, even in low cost of living cities like Lawton. Rising rent prices have made the wages from those jobs unlivable (unless half a dozen of the McDonald's staff wants to bunk up together in the same apartment). I think our town has lost about 10% of its population in the past couple years due in part to people leaving to find more survivable situations elsewhere. Property crime is going up and up for whatever reason, be it desperation or people just being terrible.

Overall this situation is really not good. I'm nervous as hell about it. So many of our materials costs have gone way up. We can get away with passing the costs along to customers for only so long. Right now we're still pretty busy. But I worry business is just going to dry up all of a sudden. I've seen it happen before back in 1999 going into 2000. This situation is far more absurd than the dot-com bubble back then.

[Mark Gulbrandsen]

According to my room mate who works for a 3rd party company (Freightwise) that schedules pickips, does the billing and a whole plethora of other things is that trucking company's are not all going to the same places they used to. Or they might go the route you needed only once a week. So that makes shipping difficult. I believe its less a trucker issue. At any rate it seems like Washington is sitting on their hands doing nothing to solve the problem. It's certainly not going to solve itself.

[Leo Enticknap]

All of these commercial ships are trying to dock in Long Beach, which is in one of the nation's worst high cost of living metros. What does an average dock worker make and how does that compare to cost of living in greater Los Angeles? What does it cost a trucker to even stop there for the night? I imagine the cost of doing business thru that port is sky freaking high.

As someone who lives around 80 miles from the Port of LA (actually two separate complexes: Long Beach and San Pedro), I've been hearing coverage of these issues on local news media.

It is alleged that longshoremen are paid well, even by Southern California standards, with most making comfortably into six figures. Reasons I have heard for the backlog include:

- Per federal government regulations, ships arriving from some origin ports having to quarantine at anchor for 14 days, and then their crews having to get negative covid tests, before being allowed to dock.

- The slowdown in arrivals causing a huge stockpile of empty containers in and around the port complexes, including the surrounding residential areas. Locals are getting mad. Normally, these empty containers would be loaded onto ships and go back to China to be filled up with plastic pumpkins and flat screen TVs, but the container capacity going out into the Pacific is not enough to keep pace with the empty containers arriving into LA by train and big rig from all over the country.

- The pandemic has resulted in a significant proportion of the truck driver workforce leaving the business, primarily through retirement (apparently the average age of an American truck driver is now low 50s). So there aren't enough drivers to clear the containers coming off the ships.

- Supply chain shortages have resulted in more trucks being off the road, for lack of parts.

- In California specifically, some of the strictest legislation and regulation related to trucking is making drivers reluctant to enter the state. These include carbon scrubbing technology that has to be fitted to exhaust pipes and a 55mph speed limit for big rigs on the state's freeways, together with huge speeding tickets and zealous enforcement by the CHP.

I live in the Inland Empire, which is an exurbia that stretches around 80 miles east from LA along a corridor surrounding three freeways (I-10, the 210, which is partly an interstate and partly a California state route, and California SR-60), and which is dominated by the warehousing and logistics industry. Containers are hauled away from the port both by truck and rail to warehouses in the IE, and from there all over the country (and to and from Mexico). I have noticed significantly fewer big rigs on these freeways driving to and from service calls over the last few months, even as the volume of cars has ramped up to pre-pandemic normal. I have noticed that the trains are getting longer, though. I can easily be waiting for 8-10 minutes for one of the four-loco monsters to rumble past an at grade crossing in our neighborhood. Presumably containers are now being taken out of the state by rail that previously would have been driven out on a big rig.

The whole system is definitely in significant trouble.

[Jim Cassedy]

We don't have quite the situation like is happening down in Los Angeles, but from where I live in San Francisco, this time of year I could usually see several container ships a day sailing through the Golden Gate on their way to or from the Port Of Oakland (where the major shipping terminals are) and I could also often spot several more ships anchored several miles out at sea waiting for their turn through the gate. But this year, the lack of ship traffic has been noticeably absent. I've also noticed that my grocery store shelves have been empty of many products. (Of course, with the current shoplifting epidemic we're having here in The CIty, it's quite possible that everything was just stolen off the shelves)

[Mike Blakesley]

Here at my day job (auto parts store), we are seeing it "big time." Our warehouse has historically boasted a 95 to 97% fill rate -- these days they are hovering around 20 to 25%. We'll get 26 pages of invoices on a typical day and there will be whole pages with just one or two items filled, or sometimes none.

Here, we're not seeing the panic buying. Our problem is almost all replenishment logistics. Normally we have 2 other warehouses we can draw from if our regular one is out of something, but in the current situation they've shut off our availability to all but our regular warehouse -- we can't even see the others on our computers anymore. They say this is temporary. We're seeing shortages in random odd products...filters, hose clamps, gloves, some kinds of oil, some chemical products. I would say about half of our "MIA" product is made in this country, not imported. (Most of our filters are made here, for example.) They just can't find people to build stuff nor drivers to drive it.

There is definitely a shortage of laborers AND truck drivers. These are difficult, dirty jobs. But, the pay rates for them can only go so high. "Mainstream" people (and the government) don't seem to get that higher expenses are always paid for by the consumer...there are no exceptions to this. If truckers are going to suddenly get twice as much money as they used to, then the freight rates will go way up and the retail prices will follow. The same thing would happen with labor-intensive jobs. Then there is the problem of finding workers who want the jobs AT ALL, even with higher pay. Even at $15 per hour which a lot of the fast-food places are offering, they're having trouble getting enough workers because many people have decided they no longer want to do those kinds of jobs. I expect the same is happening in other labor-heavy fields.

It is a mess and I'm not sure how we get out of it, or if we do.

[James Wyrembelski]

I can't speak for any other industry but I have been reading about how restaurants are struggling with take out and delivery. No packaging available.

I did see an event in a city that I used to live in years ago had to be cancelled due to last minute cancellations by almost all the food trucks. No explanation given, but I'm assuming it has to do with no way to serve anyone. Maybe, maybe not but that seems the logical reason.

Just today my Pepsi driver arrived with my order. Of everything I had ordered I received ONE item. A single CO2 tank.....

As of right now I can only get CO2 and Bibs. Forget water, bottled beverages, or any paper products.

[Frank Cox]

I was talking to the manager of the hardware store here the other day and he said that they get miscellaneous Christmas stuff from the warehouse every year. A bunch of cheap Christmas decorations, toys and odds and ends that they just buy by the pallet and sort out when it gets to the store. No Christmas pallets are available, for the first time ever. So he doesn't know what he'll do for Christmas stuff this year....

[Bobby Henderson]

I can't speak for any other industry but I have been reading about how restaurants are struggling with take out and delivery. No packaging available.

I'm seeing the problem in places like convenience stores. They're running out of cups and cup lids. I like getting a large 44 oz. fountain drink from time to time and have been out of luck in recent weeks due to those shortages.

In California specifically, some of the strictest legislation and regulation related to trucking is making drivers reluctant to enter the state. These include carbon scrubbing technology that has to be fitted to exhaust pipes and a 55mph speed limit for big rigs on the state's freeways, together with huge speeding tickets and zealous enforcement by the CHP.

It would seem like that problem, among others, would push companies to divert ships to other US ports. I don't know enough about the cost difference of routing a large container ship en route from Asia through the Panama Canal or through the Arctic Circle to reach Gulf Coast or East Coast ports. Mexico isn't much of an alternative; most of its industrial ports are on the Gulf Coast. That leaves Seattle or Vancouver, BC. I guess if California ports continue to be really difficult shipping activity ought to pick up at other ports.

I live in the Inland Empire, which is an exurbia that stretches around 80 miles east from LA along a corridor surrounding three freeways (I-10, the 210, which is partly an interstate and partly a California state route, and California SR-60), and which is dominated by the warehousing and logistics industry. Containers are hauled away from the port both by truck and rail to warehouses in the IE, and from there all over the country (and to and from Mexico). I have noticed significantly fewer big rigs on these freeways driving to and from service calls over the last few months, even as the volume of cars has ramped up to pre-pandemic normal. I have noticed that the trains are getting longer, though. I can easily be waiting for 8-10 minutes for one of the four-loco monsters to rumble past an at grade crossing in our neighborhood. Presumably containers are now being taken out of the state by rail that previously would have been driven out on a big rig.

The BNSF Southern Transcon is one of the nation's busiest rail corridors, close to 100 trains per day. Nearly all of it between metro LA and Chicago is double-tracked. The line has to share service with Amtrak between San Bernadino and Los Lunas, NM. There is a Y split there where one double track line goes North to Albuquerque and Raton Pass. The main Southern Transcon continues East to Clovis and Amarillo. Rail corridors like the Southern Transcon can carry only so many trains. Highway corridors like I-40 must share a big chunk of the over-land shipping burden. Even if trains can carry products much of the way trucks are still needed to carry those products on the last legs of the trip to stores, offices and homes. Without plenty of trucks and truck drivers a lot of things are going to grind to a halt.

At the risk of getting into political territory, I'm annoyed more funding wasn't reserved for highways in the big infrastructure bill recently passed. The new head of the US DOT is a big proponent of so-called "New Urbanism," which emphasizes pushing people out of the suburbs and into city centers to increase population density. There are multiple problems with that philosophy, the chief one being the soaring cost of housing in urban centers. Trends stemming from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic threaten to ruin that whole New Urbanism dream. Technology is improving to allow people to not only work from home, but work from remote locations where it doesn't cost a damned fortune to live. If the effort to spread Broadband Internet service to rural areas is successful it could be a game-changer in helping prevent a lot of small town communities from literally dying off.

The United States is not going to go back in time 100 years when railroads were the main mode carrying people long distances. In most circumstances it is pretty nice to be able to drive a personal vehicle. Even if most of the public wanted to travel and commute by rail our nation can't deliver that service. A national high speed rail network covering the US is an impossible dream. We can't even build normal speed passenger train lines without busting budgets. The sad thing is the US is getting pretty bad at building new highways too. I mean, when we can actually get a new highway built it is usually very good in quality. It's just that the cost per mile is through the roof and the process to get the road built can take decades. If the Interstate highway system didn't already exist and we were to set out to build it today it would be hopelessly impossible.

Then there is the problem of finding workers who want the jobs AT ALL, even with higher pay. Even at $15 per hour which a lot of the fast-food places are offering, they're having trouble getting enough workers because many people have decided they no longer want to do those kinds of jobs. I expect the same is happening in other labor-heavy fields.

Here in Lawton workers in fast food restaurants and other traditionally low wage jobs are caught in a catch-22 situation. They're not making $15 an hour for one thing (not here in Lawton, OK anyway). Our state's minimum wage is still $7.25 per hour and has been since 2009. The workers have to get into a supervisory role to be making $15 per hour or better. Rents have gone up so much many food service workers can't make ends meet unless they live with a spouse or cohabitate with one or more roommates. Working multiple jobs and/or side-hustles may be necessary. If the workers are young enough they'll be stuck living with parents. So many people believe it's just high school kids who work jobs in fast food and other low wage sectors. Grown adults have to fill those jobs Mon-Fri during normal business hours and while school is in session. Low wage jobs are not meant to be careers, but adult bodies are still needed to fill those jobs regardless if it's the same bodies doing the work.

[Leo Enticknap]

It would seem like that problem, among others, would push companies to divert ships to other US ports.

Again, at the risk of being political, DeSantis and Abbott have both made public pitches along the lines of "avoid dysfunctional California - bring your ships to Florida and Texas - we're open for business!" As I understand it, there are two gotchas involved in doing that. Firstly, both FL and TX ports are far more vulnerable to disruptive weather than West Coast ones are, especially at this time of year; and secondly, some of the ships in limbo off Long Beach are bigger even than Panamax, meaning that they've have to go back to the days of Captain Cook, i.e. all the way down the coast of South America, around the Cape, and back up again.

The United States is not going to go back in time 100 years when railroads were the main mode carrying people long distances.

Agreed (electric planes stand a better chance for that, given the distances involved in typical medium haul passenger transport distances within the USA), but although the capacity might not exist to add more cargo train movements from West Coast ports across the country, it looks like there is to make existing ones longer, which could potentially free up the truck drivers who are available for "last mile" journeys. As I wrote above, from the trains I've seen around here (I live around 10 miles from the BNSF Colton yard, which is the jumping off point for mega-trains going both north-east through San Bernardino, the Cajon Pass, into Nevada, and due east into Arizona, roughly following the I-10), it looks like this is happening.

[Bobby Henderson]

Trains up to 3 miles in length with 200 or more cars are going to become more common. It sucks if you're parked at an at-grade railroad crossing waiting for a mega-train to pass. On really busy routes like the BNSF Southern Transcon there are far more grade separated crossings. It doesn't take long for railfans to see really long trains passing each other going opposite directions at any point of that route. But it really sucks even worse if you're waiting at a railroad crossing for 2 long trains to pass. It turns into a bad safety situation. One train will be done passing and the motorist may try to start crossing the railroad tracks, not seeing the other train coming in the opposite direction.

Over in Japan the railroad crossings have directional arrows showing the direction of the approaching train. In Iwakuni (where we lived) a major double-track line passed next to the Marine Corps base. Quite often when the crossing signal lit up to warn of an approaching train both sets of directional arrows would activate. Or one train would be passing the crossing and then the other set of directional arrows would illuminate to warn of the next train off in the distance.

Train network management systems in the US have become more advanced, seeking to squeeze out every bit of efficiency from existing tracks. Most lines are single track configurations with sidings every so often. Longer trains will make it necessary to upgrade more lines to double track routes or at least do dramatic length upgrades to sidings.

As I understand it, there are two gotchas involved in doing that. Firstly, both FL and TX ports are far more vulnerable to disruptive weather than West Coast ones are, especially at this time of year; and secondly, some of the ships in limbo off Long Beach are bigger even than Panamax, meaning that they've have to go back to the days of Captain Cook, i.e. all the way down the coast of South America, around the Cape, and back up again.

Yeah, hurricane season among other issues makes the weather situation in the Gulf of Mexico pretty dicey thru a big part of the year. There is a also a hell of a lot of oil tanker traffic going through the Gulf and its ports. On the bright side, the Gulf is big enough and has enough ports that if one region is being affected by a storm ports in other regions may be open.

The Arctic Ocean may become a major hotbed of shipping activity as arctic sea ice continues to retreat and even completely disappear during the warmer months. Russia is hoping for such a thing since it has many miles of arctic coast line. Even without possible future ports in Russia as a factor the arctic would be a short cut for ships coming from Asia bound for Western Europe. The Bering Strait may be far more busy in the future.

[Mark Gulbrandsen]

Apparently Biden rolled out plans today for dealing with all the backlog at the ports... Donno the details, but I sure hope it works.

[Martin Brooks]

There was a very good and comprehensive article in Time Magazine recently that explains the Los Angeles port situation in great detail.

In NYC, while there are some products that seem hard to come by, in all the places I shop, the shelves are pretty full. I have noticed some food products that are hard to find and they happen to be products that AFAIK, are produced in the U.S., but maybe it's because of the trucker shortage or a shortage of workers at the production plants.

I've also noticed that Nikon and Canon are having big problems getting inventory into retail. More than half their products are backordered or out-of-stock.

I bought a new iPhone and it took 29 days to arrive (drop shipped from China).

My understanding is that some configurations of the new MacBook Pros won't ship until December or January.

[Mark Gulbrandsen]

This link is part of the plan. Also, the infrastructure bill contains lots of money to upgrade the ports.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-po...y-chain-ports/

[Randy Stankey]

...Even at $15 per hour which a lot of the fast-food places are offering, they're having trouble getting enough workers because many people have decided they no longer want to do those kinds of jobs. ...

I was having a conversation at work where the consensus was about the same thing. Who would WANT to work in a fast food joint?

All the dining rooms are closed or else their hours are curtailed and 90% of business is at the drive through window. Cars are lined up, into the streets and grouchy customers just want their food. People are cussing, swearing and blowing their horns. By the time they get to the pick up window, they are surly and argumentative. Cars that drive off often have people giving employees the finger.

Fast food restaurants are turning into concrete food bunkers. It's not, simply, that people don't want to work at those jobs. They don't want to work under those conditions, regardless of pay. I've been to several McD's where there are only two people manning the whole place.

With the hiring situation this bad, it's bound to get worse.