Pepsi must be really short of workers around here

[Frank Cox]

My usual Pepsi delivery is on Wednesday. The last time I placed an order I didn't get it until Friday (not that it mattered greatly) and when the driver did get here he told me that they had so many guys off sick and whatnot that there just wasn't anyone available to drive the truck earlier.

I just got my order today (Wednesday, on time) and today's driver told me that they're still short-handed, and he pointed out his new jacket. It has the Pepsi logo on it and "NOW HIRING" in big letters under that. He said all of the workers were issued a NOW HIRING jacket.

[Bobby Henderson]

Wow. That's kind of disturbing to see a company sticking "now hiring" messages on company uniforms. Pepsico is building a new distribution facility here in Lawton on the city's South side. It's going to be a pretty big operation. I hope they don't have any problems staffing the new jobs at the facility. But the current situation is just so, um, OFF. It's making me nervous as hell really. I'm worried the bottom is just going to drop out at any moment on what I think is an unsustainable situation. Lawton is not at the top of anybody's list on places where to move. Nevertheless, housing prices are getting truly ridiculous and property owners charging rent are passing along what seems like freaking insane price hikes. The average income levels in this town cannot justify these prices. So how is there a "floor" at all for these sky high prices in the first place? The situation is bad enough that soldiers reporting to new assignments at Fort Sill cannot find any place affordable to live (the post has only a limited amount of housing).

I already have my own place to live (my modest 2 bedroom home). But I'm nervous as hell about lots of other people in the local economy being rendered totally flat fucking broke by all these out of control living cost increases. Wages aren't keeping up with any of this shit. At some point something is going to give. Regular "loser" type people (how the rich sees the rest of us) won't be able to spend any more and that will be the end of it. Advertising related businesses, such as sign companies, can be the first to feel the effects of a looming recession.

We're in odd times. Employers can't find enough people to hire. The entire nation is entering a long term baby bust in terms of population growth. Our nation's median age is skewing far older. And that's going to worsen since we're turning parenthood into an extreme priced lifestyle. These trends are going to hurt us for job labor in the years and decades ahead. Nevertheless, we're keen on adopting an anti-immigrant stance even though 200 years worth of "open borders" literally made America what it is now.

I was wondering if I would see any local price breaks on Pepsi products with a big new distribution facility opening up in town. I'm not expecting anything like that now.

[Leo Enticknap]

Employers not being able to find enough people to hire appears to be concentrated on a few sectors of the economy; not all of it. Here in Southern California, at any rate, the shortages are in low skilled, minimum wage or not far above it roles, and ones that are perceived to be arduous, dangerous, and/or unattractive (e.g. infrastructure and law enforcement). The hospital at which my wife works literally has hundreds of open nursing vacancies. In the last week I've received unsolicited emails telling me that the BNSF railroad and the County Sheriff's Department are hiring. Both have been in the news for negative reasons over the last few months (BNSF for causing gridlock around the Port of LA, and the sheriff's for getting the address wrong when serving a warrant, busting in to a home with the same street number but a different name to that of an infamous gang banger, and shooting a retired Catholic priest). But if you're looking for a middle management desk job, and especially one working from home, there are none around, and salaries offered for the few that do open up are inching downwards.

Agreed that residential property prices are insane and very likely at the peak of a bubble. As of the last time we looked (about a month ago), the value of our home had increased by 298% since it was bought in 2009 (though admittedly it was bought at the absolute bottom of the last last major bust); our household income has only increased by around 20% during that time. The fact that a lot of homes that come onto the market are now being snapped up by big real estate investment trusts that pay cash and then rent them is part of the problem, IMHO.

[Frank Cox]

I think the issue with the Pepsi drivers is that it's hard bloody work. They have to drive the trucks and carry the product into the stores and collect the payments and do that in all weather. It's heavy labour, and you need both a commercial truck driver's license and a pressure vessel handling certificate (for the CO2 tanks) to do the job.

If it's 100 degrees or -50 outside they're still expected to drive down the highways and carry heavy loads all day. When it's hot everything gets covered with that sticky residue and every wasp for 100 miles around comes to buzz around in the truck. Plus you're in and out of stores and fridges going between heat and cold and that's a recipe for an almost-permanent sniffle.

If you have a cdl, you're probably going to try to find a job hauling gravel or garbage and you never have to get out of the truck to do it.

I have great respect for the Pepsi drivers. They work damn hard.

[Marcel Birgelen]

I think the issue with the Pepsi drivers is that it's hard bloody work. They have to drive the trucks and carry the product into the stores and collect the payments and do that in all weather. It's heavy labour, and you need both a commercial truck driver's license and a pressure vessel handling certificate (for the CO2 tanks) to do the job.

I think the main issue here is wages (obviously combined with the rapid increasing cost of living)... Someone with a truck driver's license and pressure vessel handling certificate shouldn't earn just above bare minimum, but should make a decent living.

There used to be a time when we had a flourishing economy "in the west", where it was sufficient for just one family member to earn a living wage to care for the entire family. It's simply because of pure greed, where all the money being made is flowing to the top, why we apparently can't have that anymore.

[Leo Enticknap]

So it sounds like both wages and working conditions. People who have these two qualifications are not working for Pepsi, because they are also in demand by employers who either pay more, offer less physically demanding or dangerous working conditions, or both.

[Frank Cox]

Actually, while I don't really know for sure I've always had the impression that the Pepsi drivers are reasonably well paid (because they need those qualifications to do the job).

It's a union job with a pension plan and stuff.

But it's still mighty hard work.

[James Wyrembelski]

I have a close relative that retired from Pepsi a few years ago. He was a driver and very well compensated. Not sure what it's like now.

We have a very dense manufacturing base in our town. It's actually very impressive for a town that only has a population of about 1400 (as of the 2020 census which showed an 11% increase). We're actually known as the plastics thermoforming capitol of the world.

I see huge hiring banners out by the roads advertising benefits, wages, and large sign on bonuses. Not going to lie that it's tempting lately to ditch self employment and go to work for them. They're so desperate they'd probably hire me if I just walked in their direction....

Meanwhile I went from having 5 employees to 1.....

[Mike Blakesley]

I talked to a truck driver not too long ago who told me that he got hired halfway through his interview. He said if you have a pulse and a CDL there are lots of truck driving jobs around. The problem is people don't want to drive trucks.

It's pretty much the same everywhere -- nobody wants to do the "crappy jobs" (AKA jobs that require a lot of physical labor) because they are no fun. I don't think "money" is always the only driving factor, although of course it's not helping -- but there are an increasing amount of people around who just don't want to do a job they don't want to do. There was a time when a head-of-household would take a job, ANY job, just to have some money coming in, while he continued to look around for a job he liked better. That's not always the case now.

The problem is also not helped by people insisting on low, low prices for everything, along with free shipping. Inflation has also exacerbated that problem, of course. This makes it harder for companies that sell stuff to make a profit, so that's why they're all looking to automate or put robots in to do those repetitive tasks.

What makes it frustrating for a business owner is when people think we are raising the prices because we're greedy. The theater industry gets that all the time. I have explained to many people that most business owners DON'T WANT to raise prices. I have lost plenty of sleep over the years knowing I need to raise the prices at the theater but not wanting to actually do it. I hate raising prices.

[Bobby Henderson]

Driving a truck in the United States can be a really shitty job. The trucking industry isn't really suffering a shortage of drivers. Instead the industry is suffering from a very high employee turnover rate. Most drivers quit not long after being hired. New people finish truck driving school to take those vacant jobs. Flush, repeat.

It can be tricky to make a good living as a truck driver even if you fully own your own rig and are your own boss. That's the best arrangement, but it takes a hell of a lot of start-up capital just to get moving. The situation is a lot worse if you're an "employee" of a trucking company doing either long hauls or last mile deliveries. Many of these drivers are hired as independent contractors rather than employees with any benefits. The company will stick the "employee" into a lease-to-own agreement with the vehicle. The sales pitch is "be your own boss." But it's all bullshit. The "employee" pays for all the fuel, vehicle upkeep, etc -not to mention the double-whammy on taxes from being an "independent contractor." Some of these "employees" end up in the red, owing the trucking company money. It's no wonder so many quit after a very short amount of time.

The thing I find really frightening for the general public is these drivers don't get paid for any of the time they're idle. Like if they're stuck at a port dock waiting many hours or even days for the load their supposed to haul. That puts them back on the road having to make up for lost time. Technically they're supposed to drive only so many hours at a time. But there is no rule for time of day, or night. So these trucking companies will be pushing drivers to keep driving even when they're about to fall asleep behind the wheel. People are getting killed in accidents over this shit, people in other vehicles near the big rig when it crashes.

It's pretty much the same everywhere -- nobody wants to do the "crappy jobs" (AKA jobs that require a lot of physical labor) because they are no fun. I don't think "money" is always the only driving factor, although of course it's not helping -- but there are an increasing amount of people around who just don't want to do a job they don't want to do. There was a time when a head-of-household would take a job, ANY job, just to have some money coming in, while he continued to look around for a job he liked better. That's not always the case now.

First, I think it's pretty important to point out the nation's unemployment rate has fallen back down to historically low levels. It's not like there is a giant horde of Americans just sitting around collecting welfare rather than working. Here in Oklahoma we ended a lot of those giveaways a long time ago. Nevertheless, lots of service industry companies here are having a tough time filling job vacancies.

Many workers are choosing to find better paying jobs. Most of these service industry jobs aren't paying a live-able wage. The hours are cut down enough so the employee can be hired as part-time/no benefits. The schedules aren't steady, which makes it difficult or impossible to hold a second job. Married mothers with kids often won't make enough working those kinds of jobs to offset the insane costs of day care (not everyone has access to a babysitter willing to work for cheap or a stay-at-home family member able/willing to watch kids). Older Americans are a big source of service industry labor. Everything from the risks of COVID-19 to incidents with rude/violent customers has a lot of these people opting to just stay home rather than supplement their retirement income.

[Leo Enticknap]

A related issue in these parts is the lack of truck stop capacity. I live a mile from the 10 freeway, about 65 miles from the Port of LA. A lot of those big rig drivers who face serious delays at the port want to get clear of the worst of the metro (and rush hour delays) and then stop for the night on their trips east, but can't, because there are hardly any truck stops and the few that do exist are always completely full. So they try to park on residential streets overnight instead (for obvious reasons, they go for safe neighborhoods), and those cities are now busily passing ordinances banning that, primarily on environmental grounds (diesel emissions, etc.). And those same environmental objections are used to ensure that any attempts to build more truck stops are stillborn.

[Bobby Henderson]

Lack of truck stops in safe locations is serious problem. I can understand local city and town governments drafting ordinances against truckers using side streets or business parking lots as a rest stop. Drivers habitually leave their trucks running idle while they're parked. That's noisy and polluting. I think some of the motivation behind these trucking ordinances involves a good bit of class warfare dressed up as anti-crime legislation. Truckers are often characterized as big consumers of drugs and prostitution.

Has shipping traffic at the Port of Los Angeles dropped off at all since the Panama Canal expansion was completed? The expanded canal can accommodate ships double the previous "panamax" size, although the biggest cargo container ships and oil tanker ships still won't fit. The Port of Los Angeles just seems to have multiple layers of pain in the ass built into it. It would make sense for shipping companies to try to redirect ships to less troublesome ports. Neo-Panamax sized ships can access ports on the US Gulf Coast. One side effect of a rapidly melting polar ice cap is ships from Asia now have a more realistic option of using the arctic as a back door to the US East Coast.

I wouldn't expect the situation regarding lack of truck stops in Southern California to change any time soon. Land costs in the LA metro are insane. Caltrans has been doing little as possible at improving inland highway routes. Today the most spectacular super highways are no longer in California. They're in Texas. Also, Caltrans absolutely sucks with their highway signage; so much of it is badly dilapidated and rife with cheap patch jobs. If it was up to me CA-99 would be fully converted to Interstate quality (call it "I-9"). The CA-58 highway from Barstow thru Bakersfield to I-5 would be an extension of I-40. And I'd have a full Interstate corridor built from Coachella down to El Centro (the CA-86 & CA-111 combo). Obviously more service stops friendly to big rig trucks need to be built in those areas outside of LA.

[Leo Enticknap]

Has shipping traffic at the Port of Los Angeles dropped off at all since the Panama Canal expansion was completed?

So far it's down around 20% on the year compared to this time last year, but it's being reported that this is due to labor shortages at the port and among the truck driving workforce, not the Panama Canal upgrade. There have been around 100 mega container ships parked at anchor just offshore for around a year now, forming a queue to dock and unload. The average wait time is said to be 2-3 weeks.

And I'd have a full Interstate corridor built from Coachella down to El Centro (the CA-86 & CA-111 combo).

I can't see that happening. Imperial County has, by most measures, the poorest economy in the state.

CA_unemployment.jpg

Over half its economy is agriculture, that depends on imported water from the Colorado River, and the supply of that has decreased a lot due to recent droughts. Most of the rest is highly volatile service and retail. There are no major tourist attractions in the county, of the sort that would attract long haul visitors. The median household income is around $30K (a startling figure by California standards). About the only thing upgrading the highway from the 10 to the 8 via the Salton Sea would achieve is to reduce journey times by road, and increase capacity, from Mexico into SoCal, and to a more limited extent provide another Phoenix bypass option for travelers between the LA metro and points east of Tucson. There isn't a Mexico to SoCal road capacity issue that I'm aware of, and upgrading the 10 by an an extra lane between Indio and the outskirts of Phoenix would make more sense for adding east-west capacity.

[Bobby Henderson]

I can't see that happening. Imperial County has, by most measures, the poorest economy in the state.

As you said, the idea of upgrading the CA-86/CA-111 combo isn't so much about boosting the Imperial Valley economy as much as it is helping move commerce through it faster and more efficiently. Most of the route is Interstate upgrade ready. A bypass built around Brawley 10 years ago is a partial freeway and has enough right of way to be made fully limited access. CA-111 between Brawley and El Centro is flanked by frontage roads and also has enough ROW for freeway exits. The small town of Westmorland would need a short bypass. The rest of the highway going alongside the Salton Sea would be relatively easy to upgrade to limited access. Such a project would be less expensive than adding more lanes to I-10.

The Phoenix metro also continues to grow, despite the strain on the limited water supply. Traffic jams there get pretty bad. A decent number of trucks coming from the LA area already use I-8 to get around Phoenix.

Speaking of tourist spots in Imperial Valley (or the lack thereof) I don't know how many people from the LA area visit the sand dunes between Yuma and El Centro. My dad was stationed at the Marine Corps base in Yuma when I was a little kid. I remember those sand dunes being a popular spot for dune buggies, hiking, sight-seeing, etc. Scenes from a decent number of movies have been filmed there, including Star Wars and Return of the Jedi.

In the bigger picture scheme the CA-86/CA-111 corridor is less of a priority than other inland highways. Caltrans is spending a pretty good amount of money upgrading CA-58 through the middle of Bakersfield. The Westside Parkway is getting pretty far along in progress. It's clear to see how it will ultimately extend to I-5. There is still a good amount of work left to do bring CA-58 to Interstate standards between I-5 and Barstow. That should happen eventually. It's not as clear if the highway will be signed as I-40 when that happens.

[Mike Blakesley]

We used to hear a lot about how people were dropping out of the workforce (in other words: Stopping looking for jobs). So how is that affecting the unemployment figures? Are these lower figures just due to the fact that fewer people are out looking for work?

Given that almost every business that has a marquee out in front is advertising Help Wanted (in Montana, lots of them are offering $15 to $21 an hour for fast food workers), that sure seems to be the case.