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Originally posted by Mike Blakesley
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I've been waiting for "Are you going to get Monkey Pox?" or something similar...
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I guess that someone ran some calculations and decided it's not worth the extra "ducting". Resistive heat is only useful in case of a cold start, otherwise, there are sufficient hot items in almost any car as a source of heat for the cabin.Originally posted by Steve Guttag View PostComment
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Daily Wail
Those are the five "gotcha" words. I see a story like this - reporting the invention of a battery technology that overcomes lithium ion's shortcomings when used in EVs - probably once every month or so, but none of them ever seem to make the jump from being achieved in the lab to being achieved on the production line. Fingers crossed that Xin Li and his team, plus one or two competing technologies to create a healthy, competitive market, can do this.'Game-changing' new battery for electric cars charges in 3 minutes and lasts for 20 YEARS - more than twice as long as current EV batteries
A 'game-changing' new battery for electric vehicles (EVs) that charges in three minutes and lasts for 20 years could soon be coming to new cars.
Adden Energy, a start-up based in Waltham, Massachusetts, has been granted a licence and $5.15 million in funding to build the battery design at scale to fit in EVs.
The battery, developed by Harvard scientists, is lithium metal, rather than lithium ion found in EVs that are already on the market.
Its intricate design, inspired by a BLT sandwich, prevents the growth of troublesome 'dendrites' that grow in lithium-metal batteries and shorten their lifespan.
Currently, EVs contain lithium-ion batteries that degrade over time and last up to seven or eight years, depending on how much they're used – much like a smartphone battery.
These lithium-ion batteries can be replaced, but they can cost thousands of pounds, meaning drivers are often better off buying a whole new EV.
But this new solid-state, lithium-metal battery can increase the lifetime of EVs to a comparable length to petrol and diesel cars – up to 20 years – without the need to ever replace the battery during this time.
In the lab, the team's battery prototype has achieved battery charge rates as fast as three minutes with over 10,000 cycles in a lifetime.
The new technology has been created by Xin Li and colleagues at Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Science (SEAS).
Adden Energy was co-founded in 2021 by Li, along with William Fitzhugh and Luhan Ye, both of whom contributed to the development of the technology as graduate students in Li’s Harvard lab.
The startup aims to scale the battery up to a palm-sized 'pouch cell' – which has components enclosed in an aluminium-coated film – and then toward a full-scale vehicle battery in the next three to five years.
'We have achieved in the lab 5,000 to 10,000 charge cycles in a battery's lifetime, compared with 2,000 to 3,000 charging cycles for even the best in class now, and we don’t see any fundamental limit to scaling up our battery technology,' said Li. 'That could be a game changer.'
Lithium-metal batteries hold substantially more energy in the same volume and charge in a fraction of the time compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries.
But they're prone to the formation of 'dendrites' – tiny, rigid tree-like structures that speed up battery failure.
Researchers have therefore tried to harness the potential of solid-state, lithium-metal batteries, using a unique BLT-inspired design.Comment
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That's exactly my problem with those reports too and that's why I generally tend to ignore them nowadays... We've seen countless of those stories for years now. Breaktrough technology here, breaktrough technology there... Many of them requiring no or far less lithium, mega-fast charging, tenfold the energy storage, etc.Originally posted by Leo Enticknap View Post
It's seemingly less apparent to make it from some lab-scale model into something that can get into millions of production vehicles.
Still, there is some significant development being achieved, especially in the last 15 or so years. Two decades ago EVs were mere toys, whereas modern EVs come with reasonable ranges and astonishingly fast charging options. The problem I see though, is that anything that seems to be viable right now is still dependent on lithium and It's already hard to find sufficient lithium to drive all the world's mobile batteries... let alone sufficient lithium to power all our cars, busses, trucks and even homes...Comment
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When I read the 3-minute charging time...I'm curious...just how big was that battery? That would be an incredible charge rate because, at the end of the day, you are still having to get coulombs of electrons from here at my power source to that battery over there. The most basic law of electricity is power (in) = power (out). Presuming that the vehicle still has its power demands, one is going to still need that much charge, perhaps in a smaller storage if it is that much more efficient. How long would it take to charge a card/truck sized battery.
Hopefully, they are successful in scaling this sort of technology. It would put the hurting on EVs though. If such technology is "just around the corner," so to speak, who would want to invest (heavily) in an EV that is about to have significantly obsolete batteries with a charge burden and range limitations?Comment
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How many years now have we been reading about lithium air batteries? As Steve said above, the 3 minute charge makes no sense. At the end of the day it takes X kW to drive Y miles. You can only practically and cost effectively get so much power into the vehicle over a period of time. If you designed the battery pack to handle it, you could charge a lithium ion pack in 3 minutes but you'd probably need 100 kV DC to get enough power in without needing such thick cables that they'd be heavy to carry.Originally posted by Leo Enticknap View PostComment
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I've been watching videos about EVs, read articles about them, and driven a few of them, over the past 18 months or so. I am resolved that my next vehicle purchase will be a full EV (not hybrid), but I have not yet settled on which one I would buy today if I needed/wanted to.
The vehicle I've been the most impressed with so far is the Ford F-150 Lightning. I drove one for a day as a loaner vehicle while I was getting my Explorer maintenance done, and it was an incredible vehicle! I don't own a truck because I don't have a need for one on a regular basis, but if I could justify having a truck, this would be the one I would buy! While I was impressed by the Tesla Model Y from a technology standpoint (Tesla has the best tech, as being the most experienced in the segment), but I found it very lacking as a vehicle that I would want to drive. Stiff suspension, uncomfortable seats, and an aesthetic that was much to minimal for my taste. If it were $35k, I could overlook such things, but not in a $70k vehicle. I've ridden in a VW ID.4, and it's OK. Very much a $35,000 class of small SUV (it actually costs more than that, but that's where I would slot its value proposition). The software is very lacking compared to every other vehicle I've been in or driven. However, I have no doubt that it's a very serviceable vehicle for what it is.
If were to buy an EV today, it would be a Ford Mustang Mach-E. While not a perfect vehicle by any stretch, it's the overall winner so far in my book. It's more stylish than a Tesla Model Y (personal opinion, of course). The software is pretty good, and will probably improve over time (but not guaranteed). As an actual vehicle that someone needs to drive, the Mach-E has been the best overall package. I have yet to try out a Hyundai Ioniq 5 or Chevy Bolt EUV, nor have I looked at any of the more expensive vehicles from Audi, Porsche, etc. because they just aren't something I would ever imagine paying for, no matter how cool they might or might not be.
Most of the concerns that have been expressed here are understandable, but not always based in fact. Fortunately, there is a wealth of information out there about all these topics if you're interested and/or concerned about them.
EV battery packs have been found to last longer than their 8-10 year timeframe where they hold more than ~80% of their original charge. Most EV models have long warranties on the battery packs, on the order of 8 years (again, easy info to find if that's a concern).
The recycling industry is just now forming around reusing and recovering battery packs from EVs, so it's not like they're going in a landfill somewhere. The lithium can be recovered and reused in new packs. (I'm not completely versed on the details of this, but once again, the information is out there for the interested observer).
Range needs vary for everyone. While one person may do just fine with a vehicle that has 50 miles of range, another might need 600 miles of range. It's unrealistic to think that all EVs should satisfy the needs of the 600-mile people, if those cases represent a statistically insignificant portion of the marketplace. The presence of EVs do not negate the presence of gas vehicles, just as the presence of gas vehicles does not negate the presence of diesel vehicles. Some people would like everyone to believe that the choice is binary, when it's actually additive. If the EVs currently available do not satisfy one's range needs, then there's no reason they have to buy one. It will be many many years before gasoline disappears altogether, if ever.
Winter range vs summer range is also well documented. As is towing range. Pick an EV you're interested, go to YouTube, and search for that model and "winter range" or "towing range" and you'll find some very well-done videos showing exactly how far that model can get driving on the highway. For example, a Tesla Model Y AWD is EPA rated for 330 miles. InsideEVs performed a 70mph highway range test and found that it was good for just over 275 miles in 80-90 degree temps. The linked article references a well-known YouTube channel as getting 253 miles in 100+ degree temps. One report I found showed that a Tesla Model Y dual motor (AWD) long range (2020 with heat pump) went 221 miles in 19 degree temps. Lots of data out there.
Your mileage may vary based on how warm you like the cabin, how much you use the heated steering wheel and seats (perhaps instead of or in priority over the cabin heat), your speed, etc.. All the EVs that I'm aware of can be pre-heated/pre-cooled while still plugged in, so you can tell it that you leave for work at 7am, and when you unplug from your home charger, the car is conditioned and ready to go, and the battery hasn't been used to get it there.
Concerns about "will the grid support EVs" are overblown, in my opinion. Sure, if the entire country suddenly gave up every gas/diesel vehicle they owned overnight and replaced it with an EV, there might be issues. There are so many ways to overcome any concerns about grid load, such as time-of-use charging, so you can schedule your charging overnight when usage is lower. This is going to vary by region and situation. With the recent Virtual Power Plant events in California, people with Tesla Powerwalls are actually helping the grid support itself by injecting power back into the grid. Isn't technology amazing?
Another note about grid concerns: how much power does an 8-screen movie theater require? Has anyone ever heard of someone saying that "the grid" can't support a movie theater, or a WalMart, or any other large-load business? I don't know what the planning is like for such projects, but I would be curious to know how they compare to a DC fast charging station.
If your house can't handle a 50A charger, then install a 40A or 30A charger. It will take more time to charge, but you've probably got all night anyway. Sure, not all homes are going to have even enough capacity in their panels to handle a 30A charger, but if you're getting by with a 100A panel or you're maxing out your current service in some other way, you're going to run into the need to upgrade at some point anyway. What would you do if you wanted to install air conditioning and you didn't have the service for it? You'd bite the bullet and upgrade your service. Or, don't buy an EV and keep using gas. No one's stopping you from filling your specific needs with the vehicle that's right for you and your situation.
The ultimate (albeit expensive) solution is to have solar panels that charge home batteries (e.g. Powerwall), so you can not only power your home's needs and keep power during a power outage, but you can charge your EV. How cool is it to essentially be creating the power you need to drive your car? Try that with gasoline!
Speaking of movie theaters, I see this as an opportunity for theaters to provide level 2 chargers (~20-30A) to customers, either as a profit center or as a loyalty member reward or some combination. If someone is going to be at the theater for 3 hours, they could get around 75 miles of charge while doing so. The systems are available to provide access on a fee basis, as well as codes for free charging that could be dispensed at will to your most loyal customers. If you could get $5 or $10 profit added for that customer, would you?
Like I've said, there is so much content about EVs that you couldn't possibly read it all. Pick a subject and do a search. The information is out there. Plenty of YouTube channels have done range tests, road trips, cross-country road trips, overnight camping, etc. as well as extensive first-person testing of chargers, accessories, and more.
Here are some to start:- State of Charge - lots of testing of chargers, vehicle range tests, etc.
- EV Buyers Guide - lots of vehicle tests by the guy that does Alex on Autos
- Out of Spec Reviews - more vehicle tests and reviews of ADAS ("self-driving") systems
- InsideEVs - plethora of EV news, information, etc.
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Scott, I think you are seriously underestimating the power grid and home charging concerns. You example of an 8-screen movie theatre or Walmart or other commercial business is poor. What is the electric consumption per patron in those businesses? Compare that to the number of vehicles on the road and the consumption, per driver. Businesses, by comparison, will seem downright thrifty. Plugging in a Level-2 charger in your home will "feel" like running your clothes dryer for the duration of the charge (possibly all night). And that is per-car. If you are in a household like ours, that will be three dryers. And, if you are drying your clothes, that could be a 4th dryer (not for us because our dryer is gas heat). Multiply that out through a neighborhood and the night time electric use will jump MANY fold over what it was installed as.
As it is, some cities cannot supply sufficient electricity during the day and one of the major charge times will be during the day, while one is at work. How many cars in a parking garage that serves an office building or business area? The electrical impact could be HUGE.Comment
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To expand on the elephant in the room that Steve just brought up...
The U.S. power grid is severely stressed and extremely antiquated in a lot of areas. It can barely cope with the current demands, and adding a bunch of EV chargers WILL push it over the edge.
I agree with those who pointed out that solar + EV is a great idea, and would make the most sense, both in eco friendly and economically.
BUT, of all the ICE cars out there, think about the percentage of current owners who can ACTUALLY afford BOTH the EV AND the costs of adding/converting to solar? That figure will be in the single digits or low double digits.
I recently priced out an off-grid, 10kw solar system and even that costs well over $14,000.00 with me doing ALL of the installation work. I think (I haven't tried to contact any of the companies as once you contact one, you get bombarded with calls, emails and texts from all of them to get quotes) my modest system installed by one of those solar companies will be over $22,000 or more. Keep in mind that a grid-tie system (that can feed power back to the grid) costs even more.
And speaking of grid tie, yet another problem with our current infrastructure is that the same antiquity means that the protection and control system for the grid can't cope with a large increase in power outside of it's direct control being fed back into the system. Some serious outages and equipment failures have already happened in a few areas due to this problem.
For the switchover to work, it MUST be done in a methodical fashion, over a time span of 10-15 years, and not pushed by legislation. The power grid, EV technology, and EV Range must ALL get significant upgrades for the complete conversion to work. I project that 2040 would be a REASONABLE goal to shoot for.
To answer the OP question, I will not be getting an EV anytime soon. I live in a rural area and even a simple grocery run can be over 100 miles round trip. I do too much driving at the current time for an EV. Plus I need the 3/4 ton truck I do drive, (RAM pickup with the 5.7, which still does 20mpg average) for work and my dirtbike.
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That's why I asked. What is the electric consumption of an 8-screen movie theater, or a WalMart/Home Depot per day? I have no idea. It doesn't really matter how much energy per customer, because I would imagine that the cost of operating a big box store is roughly the same whether you have one customer or you have 100 or 1000.You example of an 8-screen movie theatre or Walmart or other commercial business is poor. What is the electric consumption per patron in those businesses?
But we can figure out how much electricity it would take to charge an EV at home. Of course, some assumptions have to be made, and everyone's situation will vary, but there has to be a point of reference to use as an example.
So, let's take a Tesla Model Y with an EPA rating of 28 kWh / 100 miles. Let's assume that we need to charge 50 miles of usage per day, but that's probably on the high side of what people would need. My wife commutes 20 miles per day of city driving (round trip), which would use less battery than the EPA test calls for. Even if I worked downtown and took the streets and freeways on a 35 mile round trip commute, rush hour means that the average speed is far below the EPA tested speeds, so I'm guessing that the efficiency would still be pretty good.
From a cost perspective, at an average of $0.15 per kWh, that means it will cost $2.10 per day to charge at home. (Compare to almost $6 per day for a gas vehicle that gets 30 mpg and $3.50 / gallon)
From a time perspective, a Tesla wall connector can charge up to 11.5 kW on a 48 amp setting, so it would only take about 1.25 hours to charge at that setting. Cutting it down to a more manageable 24 amp setting (more compatible with older homes with lower service) doubles the time to 2.5 hours. Definitely doable overnight, which is when electric grid loads are lower (and many power companies offer cheaper rates).
From an energy usage perspective, that means that you will be using 14 kWh per day of additional electricity for one vehicle. That would be equivalent to running a 3kW electric dryer for 4.65 hours or a central AC unit that consumes 2.275 kW for 6.16 hours per day.
For those regions that face power problems and electric customers are asked to curb their energy usage during peak periods, they're accustomed to deferring their usage. What's easier? Telling a person that they can't have air conditioning until 10pm or that they have to wait to charge their EV until then? In theory, you could set your EV to charge at the lowest speed possible in order to reach a particular percentage by morning, which would spread the load even more.
For your scenario of three people and therefore three vehicles that need to have 50 miles of charge topped off every single day, all three could be recharged consecutively at 5.75 kW in 7.5 hours.
In my personal situation, my home currently uses 700-800 kWh per month. If we replaced our vehicles with EVs completely and we drive about 1,250 miles per month, that would estimate our EV charging needs to be about 350 kWh. So, roughly a 50% increase over what we're currently using. That's not insignificant, but I don't think it's outrageous either. It's also assuming that we would do 100% of our charging at home, which wouldn't be the case. However, when two new subdivisions were built up nearby with over 200 homes, no one was yelling about how the grid wouldn't be able to handle the additional load those houses represented. Our power outages in recent years have been from trees falling on power lines, not from an over-stressed grid (so we've been told anyway). That's not to say it's not an issue in other regions, but the condition of the grid everywhere is largely one of will not ability.
I just re-read your message and you say that people are going to be charging their EVs in parking garages while at work, during the day, which is during peak energy usage periods. I see some holes in that theory, as not very many (if any) parking garages are filled with level 2 chargers now, and I can't imagine how that would become a thing in the future. But even if it would happen, it's also very possible that such chargers would be configured to slow their charge rates or discontinue charging altogether if a power emergency required it. Since we're dreaming of a future that does not yet exist, it's also very possible that such EV charging parking garages could be backed up by batteries and quite possibly charged with solar panels to alleviate peak energy events.
While I admit that mass EV adoption in 2022 could create some issues for existing power grids in some areas of the country, we're not going to see such mass adoption in 2022. Most car companies are looking at 2035 to phase out gas vehicles completely and California's gas vehicle sales ban takes effect in 2035 as well. That gives us more than 10 years to build a grid that is more robust, using technology to reduce energy usage and smoothe energy peak usage by homes and businesses, and implementing energy generation and storage techniques to deliver power efficiently and intelligently. Will it happen? I don't know. Should it happen? Why not?
Holding to past behaviors that have become second nature is just that, holding on to the past. EVs being sold today won't work the best for every single use case, but once again, no one is taking away your gas car tomorrow. Technology will improve. Efficiency will improve. The electrical grid will improve. Looking at today and saying that our current situation is justification for not looking forward to something better isn't what I do and it isn't what history has shown us happens over time.Last edited by Scott Jentsch; 09-21-2022, 01:33 PM.Comment
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Scott...first off...scroll even further back to post #4 where I detail potential uses, recharge strategies so you don't need to regurgitate all of that over again. Here is a handy link http://www.film-tech.com/vbb/forum/f...3645#post23645
Forget about $$$ for right now. It doesn't matter, when it comes to grid infrastructure. It is about capacity. The reason your Walmart or theatre examples are silly is because while yes they consume roughly the same electricity for 1 versus 1000...they are sized to accommodate the anticipated consumption. If an 8 plex had 8 people in it (1 per auditorium)...they'd be shutting down pretty fast...even if they did boutique cinemas that catered to small numbers.
Let's keep it to just electricity. To have a 30A/240 (or 208 in commercial, due to 3-phase) (level-2) charger, you are going to need 7.2KW/h capacity for that receptacle. Do you know of many theatres running 7KW lamps on each screen? Setting aside lasers, for the moment, you are going to find that the vast majority of cinemas run on 2KW-4KW lamps...or 1/3 to 1/2 the power. The power to run one show (no including A/C, for the moment) in a typically sized cinema that uses those lamps is going to serve 50-400 seats (depends on recliners, seat-back-to-seat-back). Even before adding in for A/C (which is also person dependent...more people puts more heat load on the system...but that scales nicely). You're down at .4KW/h to run movies in a typical cinema...with laser, you can cut to closer to 0.1KW/h per person.
But in a retail store...again, they are going to build based on the number of people they service to make the space the most efficient. If they over build the store, their real estate price grows too.
The reason the grid is going to get taxed is looking at the point where EVs are the norm. It is just reasonable to believe that destinations will start offering (if not outright required in order to incentivize EV adoption) EV charging, at some level. Office parking garages are a logical one because they are going to be, nominally 8-hour stays. You'd want level-2 charging at some level or the worker may not get enough charge to get home...it all depends on how far one has to drive to work. For me and my wife, we range in the 40-60 miles each way. Level-1 charging isn't going to do it. The person that could live on level-1 charging, for work, should probably be using mass transit because, clearly, they aren't going far. The need for the vehicle would be to carry things.
You are going to have to support Level-2 charging 24/7 for every car anticipated on the road. That is the infrastructure that needs to be there...on top of existing electric demands. Certainly, things can be augmented with solar, at destinations but to not have the infrastructure to have that capacity...it will be perpetually on the brink of brownouts and failures. The big benefit to power production is that it will balance it out to more of a 24-hour cycle rather than peaks. The down side will be the cost and without regulation, you'll see health care like prices spiral out of control. You'll have a 100% demand market.Comment
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What is the electric consumption of an 8-screen movie theater, or a WalMart/Home Depot per day?https://esource.bizenergyadvisor.com...tail-buildingsretail buildings in the US use an average of 18.3 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity per square foot and 34,300 Btu of natural gas per square foot. In a typical retail building, lighting, cooling, and heating represent about 60% of total useComment
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My comments in bold, edited quotation of OP to save some space.
Originally posted by Scott Jentsch View PostComment
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Originally posted by Frank Cox View Post
Thanks Frank!
Using the 18.3 kWh/square foot average, there was a new Fleet Farm retail store approved nearby this summer. 137,000 square feet.
According to my calculations, that would result in electric usage of 2,507,100 kWh/year, or 6,869 kWh/day.
Using my example of 14 kWh/day for one EV that needs to be charged to go 50 miles/day, that one store will be using electricity equivalent to 491 EVs per day. Now imagine a freeway interchange strip mall that contains 5-10 of these stores, plus smaller stores to fill in the gaps. And that's just one interchange.
It doesn't matter how many customers that store serves, because no one is going to be concerned about the grid being able to keep up on a per-customer basis. My point in bringing up movie theaters and retail stores is that no one ever talks about the electrical requirements of businesses when development is being proposed. If the grid were so fragile and in so much need of protection from such energy usage, we would hear more about it, wouldn't we?
I'll allow for the fact that since I'm not in an area that suffers from brownouts and energy shutdowns, it may just not be something I'm aware of. But that's why I'm asking the questions.
The State of Wisconsin has just recently gotten its EV Infrastructure Plan approved by the federal government. Granted, Wisconsin is not a hotbed of EV adoption due to its mix of rural and urban areas, but these are estimates that might hold some value to this conversation.
EV Registrations in the state (% of total)- 2022: 9,039 (0.1%)
- 2027: 217,048 (4.1%)
- 2035: 553,686 (9.9%)
- 2050: 1,863,585 (31%)
Another takeaway from this report is that they did analyze electric utilities and grid capacity as part of their plan. While the regional power system predicted that entities in its region had the potential for energy shortages, Wisconsin had capacity for its current needs and that we would continue to have sufficient capacity based on the projected EV adoption rates.
1.8 million EVs (the 2050 projection) represents 15% of Wisconsin's total power generation in 2021. My guess is that we'll be generating much more electricity in 2050, so I'm pretty sure we'll be good.
My apologies to everyone for going off on this tangent if you're not interested, but I'm not one to leave misconceptions go unchallenged. There are plenty of specific reasons why an individual may determine that buying the current crop of EVs is not suitable for them. Looking at those reasons accurately should be part of that determination process. My original point was that there are many misconceptions about EVs that tend to get repeated by those unaware of whether they are true or not.
Using grid capacity as a negative when it comes to EV adoption is a red herring, IMO.
If you've never driven an EV, I encourage you to check them out. The selection is going to be much larger a year from now than it is now, but you can get everything from a little city/commuter car (Bolt EUV, Mini Cooper) to a pickup (F-150 Lightning, Rivian) to performance cars (Porsche Taycan, Tesla Model S Plaid). If you like road trips, watch the road trip videos where people are taking them cross-country. If you like off-road adventures, check out the videos where people are taking EV pickups off the beaten path and up and down mountains, and powering their campers from their EVs.
Just a few years ago, it was a rarity that I would see a Tesla on the road, much less any other EV. Now, it's a rarity where I do not see multiple Teslas and other EVs. There are good reasons why that is, and the trend is only going to continue. I'm looking forward to the market relaxing a little and maybe we can get rid of the $5,000-$15,000 dealer markups on vehicles, and more competition should help bring more innovations and lower prices as well. In the meantime, I have to keep my current cars running so that I'm ready for that day!Comment
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You are correct. The upfront cost of an "off the grid" solar system makes it not practical. Essentially, I calculated that if I paid cash for it I'm basically pre-paying 10 years worth of electric bills. If I finance then it is even longer. Then I have to consider if I will still live here in 10 years and if there will be any major maintenance or replacement cost. I'm sure (being in Florida) that my homeowner's insurance would increase due to the risk of the panels being damaged by a hurricane.Originally posted by Tony Bandiera Jr View PostTo expand on the elephant in the room that Steve just brought up...
The U.S. power grid is severely stressed and extremely antiquated in a lot of areas. It can barely cope with the current demands, and adding a bunch of EV chargers WILL push it over the edge.
I agree with those who pointed out that solar + EV is a great idea, and would make the most sense, both in eco friendly and economically.
BUT, of all the ICE cars out there, think about the percentage of current owners who can ACTUALLY afford BOTH the EV AND the costs of adding/converting to solar? That figure will be in the single digits or low double digits.
I recently priced out an off-grid, 10kw solar system and even that costs well over $14,000.00 with me doing ALL of the installation work. I think (I haven't tried to contact any of the companies as once you contact one, you get bombarded with calls, emails and texts from all of them to get quotes) my modest system installed by one of those solar companies will be over $22,000 or more. Keep in mind that a grid-tie system (that can feed power back to the grid) costs even more.
And speaking of grid tie, yet another problem with our current infrastructure is that the same antiquity means that the protection and control system for the grid can't cope with a large increase in power outside of it's direct control being fed back into the system. Some serious outages and equipment failures have already happened in a few areas due to this problem.
For the switchover to work, it MUST be done in a methodical fashion, over a time span of 10-15 years, and not pushed by legislation. The power grid, EV technology, and EV Range must ALL get significant upgrades for the complete conversion to work. I project that 2040 would be a REASONABLE goal to shoot for.
To answer the OP question, I will not be getting an EV anytime soon. I live in a rural area and even a simple grocery run can be over 100 miles round trip. I do too much driving at the current time for an EV. Plus I need the 3/4 ton truck I do drive, (RAM pickup with the 5.7, which still does 20mpg average) for work and my dirtbike.
I agree with all of your other points. With current technology an EV really only makes sense if you have a reasonable commute and your driving habits combined with the range makes it so all of your charging can be done overnight at home. If you live in a rural area like you do and need to potentially haul heavy loads it just isn't practical right now. Let's see what the F-150 lightening range is when towing a trailer in terrain with elevation changes.Comment
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