Remote workers should be taxed for privilege

[Leo Enticknap]

I remember once watching a Bert Haanstra documentary about how the biggest problem faced by civil engineers in The Netherlands was keeping the water out, not getting it in! In my final decade in the UK, I flew between Teesside and Amsterdam several times a year, and remember noting that everything visible from the North Sea coast to the runway at Schiphol was basically an enormous marsh.

Water scarcity has always been a fact of life in Southern California, but we seem to be getting into a pattern of drought years interspersed with deluge years, and of course there is no infrastructure for storing significant amounts of water. Mulholland designed his infrastructure approach (the California Aqueduct and so on) to take advantage of the fact that the Sierra Nevadas gradually discharge their snow pack into the system during the summer and fall months, which is a cycle that can't be relied on anymore. My impression is that the gains that can be made by reducing consumption per head have already been done (aerators in faucets, pushing low consumption toilets, laundry machines and dishwashers, cactus and gravel in your yard instead of grass, that sort of thing), and that the next step either has to involve reducing the population, or more and fundamentally different infrastructure (e.g. desalination of sea water, which brings its own challenges because of the amount of energy the process needs).

[Marcel Birgelen]

I remember once watching a Bert Haanstra documentary about how the biggest problem faced by civil engineers in The Netherlands was keeping the water out, not getting it in! In my final decade in the UK, I flew between Teesside and Amsterdam several times a year, and remember noting that everything visible from the North Sea coast to the runway at Schiphol was basically an enormous marsh.

We're going a bit off-topic here, but heck, it's 2020 and nothing seems to be normal anymore anyway.

The Netherlands is largely located around the Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt river delta. Quite a lot of land has been reclaimed from the sea and is actually below sea level. The biggest population centers like Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Utrecht are all located in an area that wouldn't survive any major flood without the protections in place. In many places in the Netherlands, you'll start to get wet feet within hours once they simply stop pumping the water out... So, drought doesn't seem to be such a big a problem. But, the problem is, this isn't the kind of water you want to drink or water your fields with, because it's sea water.

Most of the fresh water supply in the Netherlands comes from ground water, just a limited amount actually comes from rivers or lakes. This ground water is much less contaminated and needs almost no processing in order to be distributed as potable water. But in the last years, the ground water has been receding, due to lengthy periods without rain and heavy usage. This results in two problems: The ground will sink in, in a much faster rate, only increasing potential flooding risks and the receding ground water gives the sea water an opportunity to spill in, causing an increased salinization of the soil.

Fortunately, the Netherlands does have quite some infrastructure available to store excess water and the rivers feeding into that delta will probably never run entirely dry. But it will require new investments into new methods of water storage and preparation in the future.

Water scarcity has always been a fact of life in Southern California, but we seem to be getting into a pattern of drought years interspersed with deluge years, and of course there is no infrastructure for storing significant amounts of water. Mulholland designed his infrastructure approach (the California Aqueduct and so on) to take advantage of the fact that the Sierra Nevadas gradually discharge their snow pack into the system during the summer and fall months, which is a cycle that can't be relied on anymore. My impression is that the gains that can be made by reducing consumption per head have already been done (aerators in faucets, pushing low consumption toilets, laundry machines and dishwashers, cactus and gravel in your yard instead of grass, that sort of thing), and that the next step either has to involve reducing the population, or more and fundamentally different infrastructure (e.g. desalination of sea water, which brings its own challenges because of the amount of energy the process needs).

In the long run, it's much more cost-effective and environmentally friendly to invest in water storage, especially if there are still periods of large overflow. Such works will always go into the billions of dollars, but they're generally money well spent. Not only because this kind of infrastructure is needed to sustain our way of life, it will also generate tons of new jobs. Some of those infrastructure works take decades to complete, but the gains are in the long tail, especially once you can start exporting the knowledge you gained from it.

For example, the so-called "Delta Works" and "Zuiderzee Works", which protect large parts of the Netherlands from the sea, took a sizable amount of the GDP and decades to implement and still requires billions of euros of maintenance each and every year. But in the end, those infrastructural works have been a net-positive, since exporting the knowledge behind it has proven to be quite lucrative...

So, instead of building desalination plants, I think you should start building Hoover Dam-sized dams on strategic locations and aqueducts...

[Leo Enticknap]

Dams are a political hot potato in California. They have been for over a century, when William Mulholland used them to move water from the mountains to LA, and in doing so starved the water-intensive agriculture industry in the Central Belt of irrigation water; and the St. Francis Dam disaster in 1928 instilled a widespread fear of them (not to mention inspiring the writers of the movie Earthquake). More recently, proposals to build more have been opposed on two grounds. Firstly, the only type of dam that is essentially safe to build on California's geology - the earthen embankment dam - is expensive to maintain, and when you skimp on the maintenance, this happens. The Francis Dam was, and the Hoover Dam is, a concrete gravity dam: perfect for building on the hard rock bed of Mead Lake, but a disaster waiting to happen on the soft clay of Southern California. So while more dams might be a solution for water shortages, they are a long term expensive solution here. Secondly, environmentalists oppose them on the grounds that limiting the amount of water that is allowed to flow down the state's drainage basins further threatens a bunch of endangered marine life species; and these people have serious political lobbying megabucks behind them. So I can't see that happening here in the foreseeable future.

Incidentally (and trying to bring this back on topic), if you're coming to Cinemacon when it eventually happens, the Hoover Dam is an easy half-hour drive from Vegas, and very well worth the trip. The museum is superb, and during the winter, you can walk across the dam and into a different time zone (it's on the border of Nevada and Arizona, and most of the latter does not observe daylight saving time). Boulder City, about halfway between Vegas and the dam, was built to house the workers building it, and is now a pleasant commuter town with lots of nice places to eat, and a heritage railroad.

[Mike Blakesley]

Here's what I think is the biggest downside to working at home: you can end up never being off work.

That's for sure. A couple of weeks ago my wife and I decided to drive to a neighboring town (45 miles away) for dinner and the whole trip there, she was emailing her boss and a co-worker about a project they were working on.

[Steve Guttag]

I haven't been "off from work" in nearly 40 years and that had nothing to do with working from home! If it wasn't the pager, it was the phone. Cinemas operate in the evening hours, Service happens either in the morning/afternoon before they open or overnight. There is no hour of the day/night I have not been in or in contact with a cinema. At least from home, the commute is fast so I can get back to what I was doing (hopefully sleep) faster!

[Marcel Birgelen]

Dams are a political hot potato in California. They have been for over a century, when William Mulholland used them to move water from the mountains to LA, and in doing so starved the water-intensive agriculture industry in the Central Belt of irrigation water; and the St. Francis Dam disaster in 1928 instilled a widespread fear of them (not to mention inspiring the writers of the movie Earthquake). More recently, proposals to build more have been opposed on two grounds. Firstly, the only type of dam that is essentially safe to build on California's geology - the earthen embankment dam - is expensive to maintain, and when you skimp on the maintenance, this happens. The Francis Dam was, and the Hoover Dam is, a concrete gravity dam: perfect for building on the hard rock bed of Mead Lake, but a disaster waiting to happen on the soft clay of Southern California. So while more dams might be a solution for water shortages, they are a long term expensive solution here. Secondly, environmentalists oppose them on the grounds that limiting the amount of water that is allowed to flow down the state's drainage basins further threatens a bunch of endangered marine life species; and these people have serious political lobbying megabucks behind them. So I can't see that happening here in the foreseeable future.

Most dams in the Netherlands are embankment dams and while they're not super high, they're protecting entire coast-lines. Germany has build some very large embankment dams and is managing to keep them safe since more than a century. With modern monitoring equipment you can easily keep track of them, but yes, especially structures like spillways need some regular maintenance or worse may happen.

I remember the Oroville Dam crisis, where both the primary AND emergency spillway got seriously damaged and the rushing water eventually finding its way down threatened the stability of the entire dam. Pretty much a bad show of incompetence in maintaining an important civics structure. But yeah, as a society, you're obliged to maintain those very structures that keep the clock ticking. If you're building major metropolitan settlements in major flood zones, you better spend enough resources on maintaining your flood-prevention systems and if you build some of the planet's largest cities in arid regions like much of Southern California, you better maintain the systems that provide the water to maintain a modern society. For whatever reason, those systems seem to be inadequate by default in the U.S., almost independent from which state they're in. Maybe it's a political thing, where spending money on large, shared infrastructure projects is seen as some form of socialism.

Environmental discussions are obviously also happening over here. I'm in favor for protecting the environment, but environmentalists often not seeing the true reality of the situation and playing hardball just for the sake of it, is probably a universal problem. Building dams obviously has a great impact on the environment, but the impact isn't always as bad as it is made out to be and in many cases, it offers some species new opportunities. Eventually, you'll need to get the water from somewhere. While conservation strategies are certainly good to implement, as you indicated yourself, they only go so far, before you're really start to impact quality of life. Getting the water out of the sea via desalination will be, by far, the least environmental friendly option and in the long run, also the most expensive. The nice thing about getting your water from sources upstream is that it essentially keeps on flowing, as long as you're at least willing to spend the minimal amount of funds required for maintenance...

Incidentally (and trying to bring this back on topic), if you're coming to Cinemacon when it eventually happens, the Hoover Dam is an easy half-hour drive from Vegas, and very well worth the trip. The museum is superb, and during the winter, you can walk across the dam and into a different time zone (it's on the border of Nevada and Arizona, and most of the latter does not observe daylight saving time). Boulder City, about halfway between Vegas and the dam, was built to house the workers building it, and is now a pleasant commuter town with lots of nice places to eat, and a heritage railroad.

Yeah, if I have the time, I'll always make the "little" detour to the Hoover Dam if I'm in Vegas, still a very impressive structure... Don't know when the next possibility will be though and if conventions like Cinemacon and CES are still a thing by then...

I haven't been "off from work" in nearly 40 years and that had nothing to do with working from home! If it wasn't the pager, it was the phone. Cinemas operate in the evening hours, Service happens either in the morning/afternoon before they open or overnight. There is no hour of the day/night I have not been in or in contact with a cinema. At least from home, the commute is fast so I can get back to what I was doing (hopefully sleep) faster!

I guess a lot of people here recognize the feeling of being always at work and always on-call for that random outage somewhere. It took me a few years to recognize what Mike is already witnessing. It's not only impacting yourself, but also those around you. It impacts the way you sleep and it probably also negatively impacts the way you work.

Unfortunately, a lot of people think to come up with smart ideas, but in the end, the resources for those smart ideas are often just not achievable. Unfortunately, for this industry, I only see the situation turning to the worse. A lot of people will see this as a sign to either retire or to switch to another industry, leaving only fewer active knowledge in the field and increasing the pressure on those who have managed to hold on.

[Leo Enticknap]

For whatever reason, those systems seem to be inadequate by default in the U.S., almost independent from which state they're in. Maybe it's a political thing, where spending money on large, shared infrastructure projects is seen as some form of socialism.

I don't think it's either as US-centric or as ideological as that. Building new stuff is high profile, gets the public excited, and generates political kudos for those behind it, and therefore is easier to raise money for, than maintaining existing stuff. Hammersmith Bridge across the Thames in London is now worn out to the point that they had to close it to everything except pedestrians and cyclists earlier this year, and then a couple of months ago, completely. GBP 150 million is needed to fix it up to the point of being safe, and politicians of all colors are bickering as to where that will come from. It was built in the 1880s with a design life of 100 years, and so this shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone; but it still did. There was one in Italy that collapsed under similar circumstances recently, too.

What might be US-centric is a lot of our big public infrastructure was built during the post-WWII economic boom, during the Truman and Eisenhower administrations, including the freeway network, most of the regional airports, and a lot of water and electricity distribution infrastructure. A lot of this stuff is at or approaching EOL. To give California credit where credit's due, a lot of repair and upgrade work is being done to the freeways in the LA metro and the exurbia surrounding it. We curse at the lane closures, 55mph speed limits and traffic jams, but they are necessary to keep us moving in the long run,

During the investigation into the collapse of a big freeway bridge in downtown Minneapolis in 2007, it emerged that when the thing was built, the state had gone for the cheapest bid and the shortest design life. It had already outlived its life expectancy when it failed. It was also revealed that there are at least hundreds, and possibly thousands, of bridges across the country that are still standing, but in a similar condition.

Agreed with Steve on the "always at work" scenario; but as he points out, it comes with the territory in this job. When I left a projection booth job, I traded working until around midnight five days a week, and around 50 weekends a year, to only having to go out on an evening or weekend service call around 6-7 times a year. So I'm not complaining!

A lot of people will see this as a sign to either retire or to switch to another industry, leaving only fewer active knowledge in the field and increasing the pressure on those who have managed to hold on.

I have contacts and former co-workers who are already working in other industries now, and have heard of techs working for the larger chains who took early retirement. If enough theaters survive until a full-scale reopening, it's being speculated that the remaining projection techs will have more work than they can handle, and that this might impede the reopening process, because so many have now left the industry, and this is a job that takes a significant time to train for. It's going to be difficult to hire people back again, because few will want to work in a vulnerable, "non essential" industry that could be shut down by the click of a politician's mouse if a public health emergency like C19 happens again.

[Marcel Birgelen]

I don't think it's either as US-centric or as ideological as that. Building new stuff is high profile, gets the public excited, and generates political kudos for those behind it, and therefore is easier to raise money for, than maintaining existing stuff. Hammersmith Bridge across the Thames in London is now worn out to the point that they had to close it to everything except pedestrians and cyclists earlier this year, and then a couple of months ago, completely.

Those problems certainly aren't "US Centric", many countries obviously have important, but neglected infrastructure. In most cases it's simply because the resources to properly maintain them aren't available. But you'd expect a rich country like the U.S. to be able to figure it out, at least to a higher standard than what's happening now.

The Hammersmith bridge is an interesting example. From what I remember, that structure has been problematic at least for several decades now. It simply wasn't designed for the loads it has to carry, so the logical decision would be to replace it. But the thing is pretty iconic and somewhat of a symbol for London, maybe less so than Tower Bridge, but sufficiently so not to just remove it and replace it by a cold, modern alternative.

I have contacts and former co-workers who are already working in other industries now, and have heard of techs working for the larger chains who took early retirement. If enough theaters survive until a full-scale reopening, it's being speculated that the remaining projection techs will have more work than they can handle, and that this might impede the reopening process, because so many have now left the industry, and this is a job that takes a significant time to train for. It's going to be difficult to hire people back again, because few will want to work in a vulnerable, "non essential" industry that could be shut down by the click of a politician's mouse if a public health emergency like C19 happens again.

I agree that it will be difficult to motivate people to join or re-join the industry, especially if they've found a steady income somewhere else. This is probably true for a whole slate of other industries, not deemed to be "essential", but the exhibition industry seems to be one of the hardest hits industries. While the events industry at a large also looks like a giant bloodbath right now, I somehow think that their rebound will be faster than that of the exhibition industry.

[Mike Blakesley]

While the events industry at a large also looks like a giant bloodbath right now, I somehow think that their rebound will be faster than that of the exhibition industry.

Boy, I don't know about that. I suppose there are so many kinds of live events that it's hard to say what would happen for all of them, but I can barely stomach the idea of being in a huge crowd at a concert right now -- and I love concerts. Ball games, too. The way they pack the seats into the arenas just seems a little icky right now, at least until there is a vaccine with strong acceptance by the public.

[Jim Cassedy]

I think politicians should be taxed whenever they come up with bonehead ideas.

if you're coming to Cinemacon when it eventually happens, the Hoover Dam is an easy half-hour drive from Vegas, and very well worth the trip.

I've taken the Hoover Dam tour several times, and it's an amazing place! Also, if you enjoy film noir, check out the movie "711 Ocean Drive" (1950) in which Edmund O'Brien plays a telephone company employee who sets up a communications network for the bookies of a major crime syndicate. The climax of the film features a chase over Hoover Dam, and then through the underground tunnels & the powerhouse & turbine rooms there. I got to ran a nicely restored 35mm print of it about a decade ago- - but there are decent copies available to stream on You Tube & Amazon Prime. I think I had to pay a couple of bux the last time I watched it a couple of months ago, but the movie is well worth the price if you like old film noir movies.

[Leo Enticknap]

Amazon Crime wants $12.99 for it now, but I think I have enough "no rush shipping" reward points to snag it. Thanks - looks great! Like the 1950s remake of M and Bunker Hill, and The Accused (1948) and the Golden Gate Bridge, some of the low budget Noirs from around that time made very inventive use of well-known landmarks as free locations.

[Jim Cassedy]

Leo- I just checked- - you can stream it in HD for only $3.99. I hadn't seen it in awhile & I just watched it again
over the summer during my corona-incarceration.

SCREENSHOT FROM AMAZON


I use those Amazon 'no rush' shipping points too. I had collected enough to watch a 'pay-per-view' documentary
over the weekend while it was raining here.

[Marcel Birgelen]

I think politicians should be taxed whenever they come up with bonehead ideas.

If there is still a job opening on the committee that determines the "boneheadedness-factor" of each idea, I'm now officially applying for it. :P

[U]

Boy, I don't know about that. I suppose there are so many kinds of live events that it's hard to say what would happen for all of them, but I can barely stomach the idea of being in a huge crowd at a concert right now -- and I love concerts. Ball games, too. The way they pack the seats into the arenas just seems a little icky right now, at least until there is a vaccine with strong acceptance by the public.

I also don't really feel comfortable with the idea to go to a ball game, any kind of music festival or other large-scale public gathering right now. But I'm trying to extrapolate the stuff I see around me and not just look at my own preferences . Given the amount of illegal parties and gatherings of primarily young folks still happening, despite social distancing measures still in place and COVID-19 surging more than ever, I think that the urge to "gather together" is still there in people's mind.

It will take some time to get back to pre-pandemic levels, if it ever completely rebounds, but I'm pretty sure we'll see ball games, festivals and other types of (hopefully peaceful) mass gatherings, once we have somehow realistically brought this thing behind us... And I'm still pretty optimistic of eventually achieving that goal within the next year, especially given the positive signals regarding recent vaccines. The problem, of course, is for those working in those affected industries and their ability to sustain themselves in current market conditions, until the market starts to rebound... I don't need to tell you, you're in the midst of it...

[Leo Enticknap]

Without wanting to sound overly pessimistic, I think there could be a longer term problem, too, which is that the industries worst affected by this will have trouble recruiting and retaining higher quality workers when this is over (especially those with transferable skills), because they will have acquired a reputation for poor job security that will be hard to shake off. Airlines will be among the hardest hit by this (especially as the pay and conditions for their highest skilled workers - pilots, engineers, and logistics professionals - was already in decline before C19 happened), but cruising, hospitality, live events, and "non-essential" retail will also have problems.

[Marcel Birgelen]

I totally agree, and it confirms what I see happening around us. We also do some work for the events industry and there is already a lot of knowledge and talent draining from the whole industry. The amount of technical knowledge and dedication required for high-end shows and events has exploded over the past few decades and many people find their talents to be useful in other sectors. This "brain drain" will probably continue for a while after the pandemic, because like you indicated, those jobs aren't deemed to be safe.

But then again, the next (global) crisis may not be a pandemic, but something totally different. What I've seen is that even with the economy in shambles, people will always be looking for escapism. As long as there isn't a pandemic or zombies roaming the streets, there will always be a market for "cheap" entertainment for the masses.

Airlines are an interesting example. It may be the absolute worst industry to be in right now, but it seems like it's always been that way, as airlines always seem to be failing. Yet, 2019 was the most successful year ever for airlines globally and besides Boeing shooting themselves in both their feet with their ill-fated 737MAX, everything else was looking rosy and "green" in that industry...