Originally posted by Harold Hallikainen
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Out of ALL people who get infected by COVID, approximately 15% of them need to be admitted to a hospital.
Out of all people admitted to a hospital for COVID, approximately 25-30% need to go to an ICU. (Or about 4% of the overall population.)
Out of all people admitted to an ICU, about 15% need to be put on an invasive ventilator. (Approx. 2% of the population.)
The overall death rate for COVID, is approximately 4%.
The infection rate (R0) or the average number of people who can be infected by one person who spreads the virus is between 2.0 and 3.0.
Comparing this information to the SARS and MERS outbreaks in the recent past, COVID's mortality rate is one-half to one-third of SARS and MERS but the R0 is almost double... Meaning that COVID spreads faster but it's less deadly.
I had to piece these conclusions together from a few different sources and my statistics skills are rather rusty but this is what I take away from what I have read. I would like to see some better data and better stats that also include age and demographics. If others want to do some digging I'd be happy to see something from somebody who knows numbers better than I do.
Like I said, this really makes me think. If it wasn't for the fact that I would be out of work with no income for 2 to 3 weeks, I'd consider just getting infected, on purpose, just to get the damned think out of the way. My immune system would build antibodies that would last for several months. If enough people did build immunity, that could drop the R0 down below 1.0 where it would die out in a reasonably short time. Yes, I know that there are probably flaws in that idea but I'm really talking about the idea that we need more and better information so that people can make their own informed decisions.
I certainly believe in wearing masks and social distancing or other reasonable measures to slow the spread of the virus.
I am concerned about the elderly and other at-risk people contracting the virus who would be worse-off if they did get infected.
I do believe that it is every individual's responsibility to do what they reasonably can to reduce the risk of spreading the disease.
However, given my stats, above (assuming that they are right) I am absolutely AGAINST using personal data on cell phones for contact tracing by the government or other entity. I think it's okay to encourage people to keep a personal or family diary at home which is only shared if needed. If people want to use pencil and paper or make some kind of spreadsheet on their computer, it's up to them.
I don't think this outbreak is nearly bad enough to justify the government conducting surveillance on the general population. Not even close!
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