Originally posted by Dave Macaulay
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According to most scientific models, we'll probably have to face this until mid-2022, even if we find a vaccine in the coming months, there is no way to vaccinate the entire world within a month, there will be lotteries. It's obviously not the kind of data politicians want you to hear, but we just need to look at the Spanish Flu to see how it's going to progress. We're a bit smarter now (let's hope so), so we should be able to avoid the gigantic death toll that it brought about, but it comes at a gigantic cost: our economy.
It doesn't mean we all need to be in a constant lock-down, but what we'll see is that things will open and close in waves, depending on the local situation. The problem is that theaters will always be among the first to close and the last to reopen.
How will theaters survive this? I don't think anybody has any real clue right now. Every economist or politician who claims he/she has a clue is just outright lying in your face. But it's obvious that theaters aren't in a unique position. What about hotels? Bars? Restaurants? The entire leisure industry at large?
Some big and bold decisions need to be made in the coming months. You can keep pumping trillions of freshly created debt into the system or you can continue to print new money, but without some big decisions, you will eventually arrive at the same situation Germany was in, in 1923. Also, who's going to pay for all this extra debt? An economy that's already in the toilet?
We need some fresh thinking, or else, this will all end like 1923... and I'm an optimist at heart.
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