Corona Virus Effect On Theatres In The USA

[Lyle Romer]

From the available data, what is known is that if you are under 55 years old, you are extremely unlikely to die if you contract this virus unless you have an underlying medical condition.

Although not widely reported, the most significant underlying condition that is likely to lead to death in people under 55 years old is significant obesity.

In Florida, the current case fatality rate for the 45-54 age group (this doesn't account for the unknown number of undetected cases) is currently 0.38%. To put that in a little perspective, the odds that a 45 year old American male will die from any cause within the next year is 0.31% and the odds that a 54 year old American male will die from any cause within the next year is 0.72%. This data is from a page about life insurance that used 2014 Social Security Administration data. It is available at https://www.finder.com/life-insurance/odds-of-dying.

The actual infection fatality rate for COVID-19 is up to 10 times lower than observed due to the undetected cases. Even if we did absolutely nothing to prevent the spread, the chance of contracting the virus is not 100% (theories say herd immunity will happen at 70% of the population infected). With any kind of measures in place, the chance of contracting it will be far lower than that. If you take the infection fatality rate (even not adjusted) and use a high estimate of a 40% chance to contract the virus in the first place, a random 45 year old in the USA has less than a 0.16% chance to contract SARS-CoV-2 AND die from it which is significantly lower than the chance of the same 45 year old male would die of some random cause over the next year without COVID-19 being in existence.

[Marcel Birgelen]

This is the kind of information I was hoping to find.
People between the ages of "A" and "B" will likely have X% chance of recovery if they have no other health problems or risk factors.
Y% of cases can recover after a doctor's visit and home care. Z% might need to be admitted to hospital... etc., etc...

With as many cases of the disease, worldwide, there has to be some information, like this, available.

There are multiple sources of information, but it will take years to compile datasets that are sufficiently reliable. One thing is clear though: Once the ICUs of the hospitals start to overfill, mortality rates skyrocket and you'll also see quite a dramatic increase across younger people.

But I think it's stupid to just look at the mortality rate, because that's really the most extreme outcome for a case of COVID-19. There is still very little information out there about the consequential damages from a COVID-19 infection and those seem to be plenty. One of the co-workers for a company I do some freelance consultancy got hit pretty hard and has been unable to work for more than two months now, it's still not clear if he'll ever totally recover. He's a guy in his 40s, two of his family members died from the virus, only one was 65+. I know a few "mild" cases, that still took a month or so to recover. The data out there is simply not reliable and still totally incomplete. From a friend that works in a hospital, I've heard lots of bad stories. When their ICUs were at peak capacity back in April, it was like a major catastrophe hit, every single day. Maybe we should keep this in perspective.

[Ronda Love]

From the available data, what is known is that if you are under 55 years old, you are extremely unlikely to die if you contract this virus unless you have an underlying medical condition.

Although not widely reported, the most significant underlying condition that is likely to lead to death in people under 55 years old is significant obesity.

In Florida, the current case fatality rate for the 45-54 age group (this doesn't account for the unknown number of undetected cases) is currently 0.38%. To put that in a little perspective, the odds that a 45 year old American male will die from any cause within the next year is 0.31% and the odds that a 54 year old American male will die from any cause within the next year is 0.72%. This data is from a page about life insurance that used 2014 Social Security Administration data. It is available at https://www.finder.com/life-insurance/odds-of-dying.

The actual infection fatality rate for COVID-19 is up to 10 times lower than observed due to the undetected cases. Even if we did absolutely nothing to prevent the spread, the chance of contracting the virus is not 100% (theories say herd immunity will happen at 70% of the population infected). With any kind of measures in place, the chance of contracting it will be far lower than that. If you take the infection fatality rate (even not adjusted) and use a high estimate of a 40% chance to contract the virus in the first place, a random 45 year old in the USA has less than a 0.16% chance to contract SARS-CoV-2 AND die from it which is significantly lower than the chance of the same 45 year old male would die of some random cause over the next year without COVID-19 being in existence.

There's a lot here not quite accounted for from the data I've seen.
#1) Hospitalization seems to be running at 10% of symptomatic cases, with Intensive care and ventilator required in 1% of symptomatic cases.
#2) Significant organ damage, is likely cause in later deaths - Particularly heart, lung, pancreas, and brain. Plus there's clotting disorders creating strokes, heart attacks and other problems. Particularly in the US this data is being willfully ignored in many places.
#3) If you catch the virus and you live, you are now in completely unknown territory for longer term complications. Even if you were asymptomatic, even if you recovered without any serious complications immediately. Viruses are damned tricky. Ask anyone dealing shingles.
#4) Over 40% of the US adult population is now obese, kids.rates are closing in on 20%.
#5) When the hospitals become overwhelmed, which is happening right now in FL, TX, etc, the death rate FROM ALL CAUSES starts to climb significantly. Triage has to be performed before admittance, and many who would have lived had an ICU bed been available, will now die. Not including the number of regular patients, like cancer, etc who stop getting treated because of lack of available safe spaces, fear of catching the illness, not enough medical staff, etc. Current US death rate from all causes is up 23% and that's without the toll this latest bump up in cases has fully hit. https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-...3-955839e06441

Another thing to consider - the death/injury rate from cars, like the death and quality of life scores in cancer treatments, are from many years of study, with a ton of money, time, thought and energy put into gathering, reviewing, revising, remeasuring the data and the conclusions. This has only been around for a few months.

Stay safe out there, people.

[Mike Blakesley]

So now the news that Quiet Place 2 and Top Gun 2 are moving "to 2021" and Disney is kicking all of their next seven or eight years' worth of Christmas releases down the road by a year. That's four Avatar movies and three Star Wars movies, at least.

I finally figured out their plan..... they are going to choke us to death.

[Marcel Birgelen]

Yeah, I've read the news... it's going to look pretty ugly. I wasn't really surprised about Avatar 2 though... That movie is what fusion is for science... it's always just a few years away from release.

I don't think the studios are necessarily out there to strangle the exhibition industry, but I guess they simply don't care too much either. I think they just expect the industry still to be mostly there, once they start churning out product again. But they may be in for a surprise if there's nobody left to play their billion-dollar features anymore in front of an audience that actually pays top-dollar per pair of eyeballs...

Until that time, maybe everybody should play TikTok's greatest hits of the week? Maybe some live sports? Free entrance, but just pay for concessions? Maxi-Grindhouse-Tripple-Features-of-Bygone-Junk? Karaoke?

[Geoff Jones]

So now the news that Quiet Place 2 and Top Gun 2 are moving "to 2022" and Disney is kicking all of their next seven or eight years' worth of Christmas releases down the road by a year. That's four Avatar movies and three Star Wars movies, at least.

A Quiet Place Part II and Top Gun: Maverick haven't moved to 2022, at least not yet, anyway.

Paramount Pushes 'A Quiet Place Part II,' 'Top Gun: Maverick' to 2021

A Quiet Place Part II is being delayed from Sept. 4, 2020, to April 23, 2021, while Top Gun: Maverick — which sees Tom Cruise reprise his titular role — is moving from Dec. 23, 2020, to July 1, 2021.

In related news, 'Bill & Ted 3' to Hit VOD and Select Cinemas Simultaneously.

Bill & Ted Face the Music will bypass a traditional theatrical route to debut simultaneously on premium VOD and in any cinemas willing to play the threequel Sept. 1.

I'm genuinely frightened about the future of cinemas.

[Mike Blakesley]

A Quiet Place Part II and Top Gun: Maverick haven't moved to 2022, at least not yet, anyway.

You're right -- thanks -- I mis-typed. I have fixed it in my original post. That's what I get for not proofreading myself.

[Marcel Birgelen]

I'm genuinely frightened about the future of cinemas.

Maybe the next movie should be directed and recorded via Zoom...

Now, you're pretty good at writing stories, aren't you? :P

[Geoff Jones]

Maybe the next movie should be directed and recorded via Zoom...

Now, you're pretty good at writing stories, aren't you? :P

Hah - I'm good, but not that good.

[Frank Cox]

I see that the theatre in Yorkton (owned by the second largest theatre chain in Canada) has closed again effective today.

So that leaves just me and the drive-in at Wolseley as the only places in this entire area of the province that are still operating.

Egad. How long can this go on before a critical mass of theatres close permanently and the whole industry collapses when there aren't enough theatres left to be worth putting movies into theatres. I don't see how the big chains can keep on paying the fixed costs of keeping their locations in existence with zero revenue coming in. Those guys are in expensive locations and the property taxes and/or rent bills won't be getting any smaller, not to mention all of the other costs.

At some point the movie companies will have to release their movies and get some return out of them; having them sitting on the shelf isn't bringing in anything at all for anyone. And since they're all made with borrowed money won't the lenders be agitating for some kind of payback?

[Marcel Birgelen]

Hah - I'm good, but not that good.

It shouldn't be difficult to come up with a new script involving dinosaurs that's better than any of the latest Jurassic World movies. Also, it shouldn't be difficult to come up with special effects that are better than that of A Sound of Thunder, I'm almost convinced I could do better myself. So, if we set the bar low, motion capture can be done via Zoom, just like all other recordings, really. All live-action actors get a free, green cardboard screen.

[Mike Blakesley]

Egad. How long can this go on before a critical mass of theatres close permanently and the whole industry collapses when there aren't enough theatres left to be worth putting movies into theatres. I don't see how the big chains can keep on paying the fixed costs of keeping their locations in existence with zero revenue coming in. Those guys are in expensive locations and the property taxes and/or rent bills won't be getting any smaller, not to mention all of the other costs.

Yeah. These are the questions I'm struggling with. The worst part for me is knowing that the big chains, all those executives have got is "other people's money" they're playing with. They could decide to close up tomorrow and most of them would just see a slight dip in their portfolio. (Of course, there are the hundreds of thousands of jobs that would be lost too, but I'm talking ownership here.) On the other end of the spectrum are guys like you and me who have their whole heart and soul into these places and there is an ever-increasing risk that we are going to lose it all. To a stupid virus. I was hoping it'd be a massive earthquake or a volcano that'd take us out, something a little thrilling at least.

[Frank Cox]

My wife asked me a while ago, if we close the theatre then where will we live? (We live in the theatre, in an apartment behind the screen). I told her that we'll just stay right here. We have the place fixed up the way we want it, we like it where we are, and moving is a giant pain in the ass. Why go anywhere else?

I'm still hoping that things will get back to what they should be and life can get back to what it was. I never intended to retire, was planning to keep running my theatre until I just couldn't do it any more. And I've been forced to confront a new way of thinking. I don't like it. At all.

[Marcel Birgelen]

I hope you manage to hang in there...

I was hoping it'd be a massive earthquake or a volcano that'd take us out, something a little thrilling at least.

Many global extinction events aren't really all that thrilling. If the sun suddenly goes supernova, it's all gone in the blink of an eye. Even a big meteorite hitting the earth would probably just take mere seconds to incinerate anything that comes close to it. A gamma ray burst hitting Earth? Just a little blip... Volcanoes and earthquakes, even the big ones that create massive tsunamis are mere "local" events, even if they wipe you out, it's likely over here, we over here end surviving the whole mess...

Almost nothing in this crazy world is certain anymore, but something is bound to move... Disney for example, is seemingly getting increasingly cash-strapped. That doesn't mean they're anywhere near bankrupt, because of the enormous set of assets on their balance sheets, but their liquidity after months of global closures of their theme parks, their cruises and almost all theater operations haven't done anything good to their liquidity. Also, the restart of their theme park, hotel business and retail businesses didn't really go well and cost them a lot of money. It doesn't help that their biggest properties are in some of the currently worst-hit places...

Although they've kicked all their big releases down the road, simply because there is no production going on right now, rumor has it that they're going to put up many of their classics for proper theatrical re-releases, including advertising campaigns around the world for those releases. While this will not bring any new content into theaters, classic Disney re-releases have been pretty popular in the past and Disney has always been very reluctant in allowing theatrical screenings of any of them, outside of their own release cycles. Combined with some cross-media advertising campaigns, this may bring both Disney and the exhibition industry a little bit of relief.

[Mike Blakesley]

rumor has it that they're going to put up many of their classics for proper theatrical re-releases, including advertising campaigns around the world for those releases.

That would be awesome ... as long as they don't require stupid things like four week playtimes. I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

Of course I was being facetious about the whole earthquake, volcano thing. But you have to admit it would be better for the movie industry to die an instant fiery incineration than to be slowly starved to death.