Closed again

[Mike Blakesley]

But for each case they're reporting there is bound to be multiple other cases not being reported, like people finding out they're COVID-positive via a home test. Even if a tiny percentage of people who get Omicron have serious issues the ratio and proportion of those cases is still swamping our hospitals. Topping it off, this morning on our local news there are reports of a possible new COVID variant being identified right here in Oklahoma.

If people are home-testing, and getting positive results, and not reporting that fact to the health department, we may already be a couple of variants down the road from omicron and just don't know it yet.

[Marcel Birgelen]

If people are home-testing, and getting positive results, and not reporting that fact to the health department, we may already be a couple of variants down the road from omicron and just don't know it yet.

We are already a couple of variants down the road, only the major variants even get a letter from the Greek Alphabet. That way, there will be quite some minor variants that never get detected and as long as people are responsible and self-isolate when they test positive, they simply die off.

[Steve Guttag]

On January 24 there were 2181 COVID-19 deaths reported. The current 7 day average is 2369 deaths per day. This current death rate has been covered on many news broadcasts lately. The stats are reported by the CDC, Johns Hopkins COVID-19 web site, NY Times, etc. BTW, I never said the US has been averaging 2000 deaths per day thru the entire pandemic. I said that 2000+ deaths per day is the current rate.

As of the morning of Jan 25 868,514 COVID-19 deaths have occurred in the US over the past 24 months. For averaging purposes, that's over 1100 deaths per day, which is still pretty damned bad.

I use Worldmeters and at the time of your posting, I would not have characterized it as 2K deaths/day but our numbers agree enough on the day of your posting.

That said, the 1100 deats/day as an average is a BS number and you know it. Not that they didn't die but the first 620,000 or so were completely unvaccinated and the remaining ones are 90-95% unvaccinated.

My claim is, if a theatre (or other business) has a vaccination mandate, you are vaccinated (something each individual can control) and there is a high probability that everyone you are around is vaccinated you are in a lower risk setting than the mode of transportation one took to get to the venue.

Your (the larger "your" like the CDC) lack of proof or even a study on the risk of cinemas (in an actual cinema) is not justification to list them as particularly risky venu. It should not be any justification for even the recommendation of closure.

As to the hospitals, I do think there should be a difference in how they triage patients. Non-vaxxing C19 should be at the lower-end...it is a self-inflicting problem that is denying others treatment and increasing the risk to all those that are unable to be vaccinated or are medically unable to have the full benefits of vaccination. But that is just my opinion and would be inconsistent with how the medical profession traiges those most in danger first, regardless of what got them there.

[Bobby Henderson]

That said, the 1100 deats/day as an average is a BS number and you know it.

The first documented COVID-19 death in the US happened on January 9, 2020. 749 days have passed since then. 876,078 COVID-19 deaths have occurred since 1/9/20. 876,078 divided by 749 equals 1,169.6 (plus a bunch of decimals). So, yeah, 1100 deaths per day average in the US is NOT a BS number at all. Double check that math if you like.

The 876,078 US COVID-19 deaths I listed is via the Johns Hopkins COVID tracker. World Meters puts the current number this morning at 898,680, which divided by 749 equals 1199.839 deaths per day, almost 1200 per day.

Your (the larger "your" like the CDC) lack of proof or even a study on the risk of cinemas (in an actual cinema) is not justification to list them as particularly risky venu. It should not be any justification for even the recommendation of closure.

The flip side is commercial cinemas are not risk-free venues either. It's certainly questionable how commercial cinemas were singled out early on in the pandemic as somehow being worse than other large indoor spaces. But many churches, schools, sports arenas, etc also shut down.

Today the risk with large indoor spaces (like cinemas) is much lower due to vaccines being easily and freely available in the US. Risk levels with indoor public spaces can vary based on region however. They're extremely low in locations with high vaccination rates. Out here in Joke-la-homa, where only 54% of residents are fully vaccinated, risk levels are higher, particularly for anyone unvaccinated. This state's case levels are still rising while other states are well into the downslope past their peaks with Omicron. Oklahoma's hospitals are jam-packed and overflowing with COVID-19 patients as a consequence of so many people choosing to be unvaccinated. Quite a few vaccinated people are getting break-thru infections, although most of those cases are mild. I think that is still a consequence of unvaccinated people allowing SARS-CoV-2 to run wild. Still, I'm not letting that stop me from watching a movie in a commercial cinema. Considering how many of my co-workers caught this latest COVID bug, if I was going to get a break-thru infection I think it would have happened already.

As to the hospitals, I do think there should be a difference in how they triage patients. Non-vaxxing C19 should be at the lower-end...it is a self-inflicting problem that is denying others treatment and increasing the risk to all those that are unable to be vaccinated or are medically unable to have the full benefits of vaccination.

I wish it could be arranged where someone that suffered a heart attack could get priority. Unfortunately treatment for severe COVID-19 is a slow process. Once someone is on a ventilator in the ICU the hospital can't just unplug that person to make room for a car accident victim. One severe COVID-19 patient can languish in an ICU bed literally for weeks. Over time that one patient can end up using the same amount of ICU resources as literally a dozen or more other types of ICU patients. The COVID-19 patient also racks up a staggering medical bill, which he sure as hell isn't going to be able to pay. Insurance covers only so much, if the patient has insurance. The US government also haggles on those bills, forcing the hospital to write off a bunch of the cost.

[Frank Cox]

Canadian numbers:

https://www.cihi.ca/en/covid-19-hosp...r-heart-attack

A COVID-19–related hospitalization with ICU admission is estimated to cost over $50,000 — more than 3 times the cost of a stay without ICU admission ($15,000). By comparison, the average cost of an ICU admission for pneumonia is $22,000 and for heart attack is $8,400.

[Steve Guttag]

Bobby, the BS part of your numbers is the fact you are comparing what are anywhere from 90% to 100% non-vaccinated deaths to a vaccinated world where most everyone (in the USA, at least) can be fully vaccinated and cinemas can provide a nearly 100% vaccinated environment. The death numbers are not representative of people in that sort of environment.

I have never claimed that cinemas were risk-free. I have claimed that there are no documented cases of cinemas being spreaders or particularly more risky than any indoor environment and that they are probably less risky due to how people are situated in a cinema compared to other indoor venues. I have also consistently stated that a vaccinated person going to a cinema has no more risk (to landing themselves in a hospital or death) than the sheer act of going to the cinema or any venue itself. There is an inconsistent risk tolerance between C19 and other risks being applied.

I wonder how many vaccinated people that are scared to be out with C19 have ever thought of their risks that they were taking before C19 that are as high or higher. Yet that never kept them at home before (or eating something that would put them closer to that heart attack).

[Andrew Thomas]

If people are home-testing, and getting positive results, and not reporting that fact to the health department, we may already be a couple of variants down the road from omicron and just don't know it yet.

Worth noting that Omicron, Delta, and all the other VOC thus far originated from sources further back than each other. Best evidence right now is that they came out of people who had Covid infections in early 2020 that never got better and the virus just kept mutating in their own cells for months on end before eventually escaping out into the population.

[Andrew Thomas]

Quite a few vaccinated people are getting break-thru infections, although most of those cases are mild. I think that is still a consequence of unvaccinated people allowing SARS-CoV-2 to run wild.

I don't normally bother prefacing comments this way, because it shouldn't matter, but I'm fully vaxxed and boosted, my wife is fully vaxxed and boosted, our three children are all fully vaxxed. I'm decidedly pro-vaccination.

That being said, this part of your post is simply incorrect. Vaccinated people are getting "break-thru" infections because the vaccines don't target anything in Omicron that can help prevent infection. They still do their primary job exceptionally well, which is decrease the risk of severe disease and the subsequent hospitalization and death. They just no longer do what was a pleasant surprise to all, and prevent infection. This is why the pharmas are now working on Omicron specific boosters to help the vaccines regain the ability to prevent infection.

And as I noted above, Omicron's genetic origin is almost certainly from a person who caught Covid in early 2020 and never cleared the infection. It was not a mutation out of the folks who refuse to be vaccinated in the post-vaccine phase of the pandemic.

[Bobby Henderson]

Bobby, the BS part of your numbers is the fact you are comparing what are anywhere from 90% to 100% non-vaccinated deaths to a vaccinated world where most everyone (in the USA, at least) can be fully vaccinated and cinemas can provide a nearly 100% vaccinated environment. The death numbers are not representative of people in that sort of environment.

First, I was only talking about the COVID-19 death rate in the United States. Right now presently we currently have over 2000 Americans dying daily of COVID-19 despite many tens of millions of Americans being vaccinated.

You took issue with my comment about that, trying to claim I said 2000 Americans were dying every day on average since the pandemic began when I never said that at all.

Then I provided the flat mathematical average for how many Americans have been dying, which is over 1100 per day. That is the flat, factual number. Over 870,000 American deaths spread over 749 days equals that average. There is nothing to qualify about that. Those deaths happened over that time span. There is no grading that on some kind of curve or saying some or most of those deaths didn't count. Those are the numbers, give or take a few thousand deaths depending on which "meter" you consult. It still comes out to over 1100, or actually closer to 1200, deaths per day over these past 2 years. I never said anything about deaths between vaccinated or unvaccinated people in that total death count spread across 2 years. That's besides the point. And I never implied that average of deaths being attributed to any specific location, such as a cinema. That's also besides the point.

That being said, this part of your post is simply incorrect. Vaccinated people are getting "break-thru" infections because the vaccines don't target anything in Omicron that can help prevent infection. They still do their primary job exceptionally well, which is decrease the risk of severe disease and the subsequent hospitalization and death. They just no longer do what was a pleasant surprise to all, and prevent infection.

None of the vaccines were 100% at preventing infection from any SARS-CoV-2 variant. The main selling point for the vaccines was greatly cutting the risk of severe disease. It's also worth mentioning a fully vaccinated (and boosted) person is likely to carry less of a viral load and be less contagious than someone who is unvaccinated and infected with a SARS-CoV-2 variant. That's why I mentioned the thing about anti-vax people letting the virus run wild. If vaccinations didn't make any difference on infection Oklahoma would be on the downslope of its Omicron surge just like certain East Coast states with much higher vaccination rates. Instead our case loads are still climbing because we have so many willing anti-vax virus hosts here. They're not only letting the disease spread more easily, but they're also helping breed new variants like this "BA-2" thing into existence.

[Lyle Romer]

None of the vaccines were 100% at preventing infection from any SARS-CoV-2 variant. The main selling point for the vaccines was greatly cutting the risk of severe disease. It's also worth mentioning a fully vaccinated (and boosted) person is likely to carry less of a viral load and be less contagious than someone who is unvaccinated and infected with a SARS-CoV-2 variant. That's why I mentioned the thing about anti-vax people letting the virus run wild. If vaccinations didn't make any difference on infection Oklahoma would be on the downslope of its Omicron surge just like certain East Coast states with much higher vaccination rates. Instead our case loads are still climbing because we have so many willing anti-vax virus hosts here. They're not only letting the disease spread more easily, but they're also helping breed new variants like this "BA-2" thing into existence.

When the vaccines first became available, the main selling point was that if you got vaccinated you were very unlikely to be infected or be able to spread it and if you did happen to have a rare breakthrough infection (the CDC used the word "rare" on their breakthrough hospitalization and death page), you would be extremely unlikely to have a severe case, end up in the hospital or die. They (Dr. Fauci specifically but other experts as well) were estimating what percentage vaccinated it would take to reach herd immunity. Herd immunity from vaccination isn't possible if the vaccines don't prevent infection at a high level of efficacy.

Luckily, as new variants have become dominant, the vaccines have maintained most of the efficacy in preventing severe disease. That is the main selling point to get vaccinated NOW but it wasn't a year ago.

As for Oklahoma's Omicron wave and the relationship to the low vaccination rate, it very well may be due to the fact that the wave started around two weeks after it began in the east coast states. NY, NJ and FL all started having cases increase around 12/12. It looks like OK didn't start to increase until 12/28 or 12/29.

Looking at data from very highly vaccinated countries and states, it doesn't appear that the vaccination rate makes much difference in the degree of the spread of the Omicron variant.

[Andrew Thomas]

None of the vaccines were 100% at preventing infection from any SARS-CoV-2 variant. The main selling point for the vaccines was greatly cutting the risk of severe disease. It's also worth mentioning a fully vaccinated (and boosted) person is likely to carry less of a viral load and be less contagious than someone who is unvaccinated and infected with a SARS-CoV-2 variant. That's why I mentioned the thing about anti-vax people letting the virus run wild. If vaccinations didn't make any difference on infection Oklahoma would be on the downslope of its Omicron surge just like certain East Coast states with much higher vaccination rates. Instead our case loads are still climbing because we have so many willing anti-vax virus hosts here. They're not only letting the disease spread more easily, but they're also helping breed new variants like this "BA-2" thing into existence.

Prior to omicron, the mRNA vaccines in particular were highly (north of 80%) effective at stopping infection. They don't stop infection at all with Omicron. Because of this, no, the vaxxed and boosted person spreads Omicron in exactly the same manner as the unvaccinated. The viral load thing is also no longer true in the Omicron era. We have to completely reorient our approach to Covid in light of this mutation.

And the shape of the OK Omicron surge is pretty much identical to those in the states that were hit first, and honestly just like every other state. There is no meaningful difference. I don't know what you're looking at.

So, no, Omicron spreads just as easily in high vaxxed and low vaxxed places because the vaccines do not prevent Omicron infections, they do not lower viral loads, they DO keep people out of the hospitals. That is one area, the continued crunch in hospitals, where you can rightly be critical of those who choose to forego being vaccinated.

[Bobby Henderson]

And the shape of the OK Omicron surge is pretty much identical to those in the states that were hit first, and honestly just like every other state. There is no meaningful difference. I don't know what you're looking at.

Our surge is lasting longer and our hospitals are slammed quite a bit harder with patients than other states with higher vaccination rates. The greater percentage of unvaccinated people are propelling much of this difference.

[Andrew Thomas]

Our surge is lasting longer and our hospitals are slammed quite a bit harder with patients than other states with higher vaccination rates. The greater percentage of unvaccinated people are propelling much of this difference.

No it isn’t. Just compare the shape of the surges, they are all following the same trajectory over roughly the same number of days. Oklahoma was just later to the Omicron party so the timing of the surge in absolute values is different. Literally just look at the charts yourself.

I also don’t think OK is some outlier in regards to hospital issues, and there is no vaccination percentage in the US causing hospitals not to fill with Covid positive patients. The states that are seeing hospitals begin to empty are simply the states that got hit with Omicron 2-3 weeks before the rest of the country.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...tal-state-maps

[Andrew Thomas]

Our surge is lasting longer and our hospitals are slammed quite a bit harder with patients than other states with higher vaccination rates. The greater percentage of unvaccinated people are propelling much of this difference.

Looking at the OK numbers again and this was simply a false claim. The charts are the same as we saw everywhere else, just delayed a little bit because OK is in the middle of nowhere

[Mike Blakesley]

Since the politicians have wrung pretty much every nickel out of Covid that they can, the restrictions are all being lifted now everywhere. Go back to normal, but be careful, is the new directive. We've been doing that here for the past year or so, basically. We have a few people around town who wear masks (people who are in lousy health to start with) but other than that it's just typical day to day around here. Looking at our state's graph, it looks like Omicron hit faster but is going away faster, too. Currently our county has 37 cases; a week ago we were over 200 cases.

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