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Hey...movie theatres are not on that list! Shocker!
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Don't let facts or science get in the way of "safety!"Originally posted by Steve Guttag View PostComment
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https://www.denverpost.com/2020/11/2...ado-level-red/
Guest commentary: A concerned public needs more information on reasons for COVID restrictions
Data indicates gyms, restaurants are not especially risky
Dear Governor Polis:
First, let me say how grateful I am for your leadership during this pandemic. Poor leadership is rampant these days, so I do not take for granted how critical your skills and integrity have been over the last many months. You have provided clear, consistent directives that I believe have significantly contributed to Colorado faring much better than other states (until now) with regard to control of viral transmission rates. Your willingness to patiently follow the scientific data as it progressed and enact the statewide mask mandate when many other states would not was an act born of wisdom and courage. So before anything else is said, thank you for your seemingly tireless (and I am guessing mostly thankless) leadership during these difficult times.
That said, I am writing today to ask you to provide better data-based context to your restrictions on public and economic activities. The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment collects a remarkable amount of information on weekly outbreaks. For someone such as myself, finding this data has been very helpful in trying to answer the two questions everyone has; where is the virus and how might I most likely become infected? I recently wrote an article where I showed that for anyone not in college, prison, or a health/senior care facility, the answer to this question is most likely “at work,” not the grocery store or even a restaurant. The past 4 weeks of data analysis continue to support these conclusions.
As the recent outbreak has worsened, anyone paying attention would agree that steps need to be taken to recommit the public to the mask-wearing and social-distancing behaviors that worked so well to control the virus over the summer. However, there is no data-based reason to believe that all of the recently mandated “red zone” restrictions put into place will have substantive impact on viral spread. For example, under the new guidelines/mandate, restaurants must eliminate indoor dining and health clubs must reduce their capacity to 10%with a maximum of 10 people per room. However, no health clubs (in Colorado) have been identified as sites of outbreaks (at least by the CDPHE), and restaurants represent 3% of total cases with only 10% of those involving customers.
What benefit can be expected by reducing capacity in these locations? The data seem to indicate that Coloradans are keeping their masks on whether eating out or working out, so if anything, they should be rewarded by continuing both at their present capacity. Even if the new restrictions remain, greater common sense in their implementation is warranted. While a maximum of 10 people per room is perfectly logical for my Tae Kwando dojo (the size of a very large living room), it is patently ludicrous to apply the same logic for my climbing gym (the size of 2 football fields). When one adds the fact that the viral spread in these locations is almost exclusively between employees, the number of which stays relatively stable even when limiting customer access, enforcing these specific mandates appears doubly counter-productive.
In contrast, the data robustly support the new mandate on reducing the at-work workforce to 10%, given the ongoing and extensive degree of viral spread in that area. Until dramatic efforts are made to mitigate viral spread in colleges, prisons and health care facilities, even this will have limited impact, but at least it is supported by actual data and has a chance at doing some real good.
As far as I can tell, and I have spent many weeks now in analysis, the data support my statements above. But perhaps there are other data on which the decisions and mandates are based? Additionally, I may have wrongly interpreted the data to which I have access. While my expertise as a professor of immunology at the Anschutz Medical campus easily qualifies me to perform some spreadsheet data filtering and subtotaling, I am not an epidemiologist. Admittedly, therefore, I am likely less qualified to interpret these data than others in your employ. This brings me back to my original request: that you more explicitly share with the public the available data, its analysis, and how it is connected to the decision-making process.
Everyone I know is eager to become as informed as possible, so a detailed “where is the virus now” update, geared to the general public, would be welcome indeed. It would also counteract the unsettling feeling that we are being indiscriminately, and unproductively, asked to just stay away from everyone and everything. Being made to sacrifice without reasonable expectation of benefit is oppressive and demoralizing. In contrast, if I have confidence that my actions will be productive, it is both empowering and encouraging. I think I speak for everyone when I say that we could all use more of both.
Again, I thank you for your leadership during this amazingly hard time in our state and our nation. You have weaved your way through a pandemic in conjunction with the most divisive society in my living memory with great skill. It is yet one more reason I am grateful to be a Coloradan.
Ross M. Kedl is a professor in the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at the University of Colorado School of Medicine.
By the way, Colorado outbreak data is at https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/f...k-526G7l9fC1vs
and my continuing death data is at http://hallikainen.org/cv/
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