AMC needs to raise $750m to survive

[David Bird]

You make a good point Mike, we're rooting for them as well. I find myself disappointed at a lot of things people "consume" and wonder if the quality of everything would be better if they didn't. On the other hand, people must somehow value the predictability of chain mediocrity. I don't think we'd lose all restaurants if the "fast casual" chains went away, but what if dining out was just not as much of a "thing"? How many of the really great little independent places would still exist? Maybe there'd be a lot more, who knows? But on this one, I'd agree, movie going needs to be a "thing" for us little people to survive.

[Steve Guttag]

I don't believe for a minute that we need big chains and think that they have done as much harm as good as they systematically lower presentation standards with AMC spearheading that charge. I grew up in a major market where no chain had a significant presence until rather late (Washington DC, had GCC in one location and the rest were dominated by two local chains. Cineplex-Odeon bought its way into DC with the purchase of Circle Theatres in December 1987).

That said, I've never "rooted" for any theatre fail. Our patrons, by and large, judge us as an industry, not as individual companies. Sure there are the loyal patrons that seek out a particular brand (particularly if they have a loyalty program/gift cards) but, by and large, we all live and die with the public perception of cinemas as an industry.

Independent theatres have the ability to know their markets better than the chains that judge cinemas based on strict spreadsheet performance based on their own set of criteria. Local theatres and regional chains can get into the details of which sites will do better with certain genre of movies or even showtimes. Local theatres also tend to be more community based as they are often run by the citizens of that community. We installed a theatre this summer that opened around Labor Day and has consistently been bumping up against the 50% capacity limits despite having the same lackluster product that everyone else has been working with. They are not in a major market either but boy do those guys hustle in everything they do. They turn EVERYTHING into an event from before you buy your ticket an all of the way until you leave the site. They've had "chains" come by trying to figure out how they're doing it. From what I can tell, it is good old fashioned work, combined with knowing your community and providing a quality experience. The presence of AMC or another chain would not help and likely wouldn't hurt them...unless that big-chain practice of "clearance" was used...which benefits nobody.

Even with all of that, I don't root for any theatre to fail...only to be better and raise the perception of our industry. This is a time to be a family, not a feuding industry.

[Geoff Jones]

We installed a theatre this summer that opened around Labor Day and has consistently been bumping up against the 50% capacity limits despite having the same lackluster product that everyone else has been working with. They are not in a major market either but boy do those guys hustle in everything they do. They turn EVERYTHING into an event from before you buy your ticket an all of the way until you leave the site. They've had "chains" come by trying to figure out how they're doing it. From what I can tell, it is good old fashioned work, combined with knowing your community and providing a quality experience.

What theatre is this? Give them the props the deserve.

[Steve Guttag]

Warehouse Cinemas in Frederick, Maryland (USA).

https://warehousecinemas.com/

Note, I did list them in the other thread about theatres that have opened or closed.

[Marcel Birgelen]

I'm not rooting for anybody to fail, but thinking about it, I don't think that a failing AMC will hurt the industry any more than it has already been hurt. In the longer run, it may even help the industry. AMC's dominance in the industry hasn't always been a good one, I don't think too many people will miss them.

In order for AMC to have a chance of survival, we'll see them implementing a lot of cost-cutting measures in the near future. So, no matter what happens, we'll see AMC close or spin-off a lot of unprofitable locations in the near future.

If AMC would fail completely, we'll see how AMC will be split into multiple chunks and we'll see how the most "juicy" parts will be sold to the highest bidder. It's not like in any scenario, all AMC locations will close indefinitely, it's just unsure under what banner they'll operate in the future...

[Bobby Henderson]

There is plenty I don't like about the biggest theater chains. I rarely visit any former Warren Theaters locations (such as the one in Moore, OK) after what Regal did to those theaters after buying out the chain. Many of the complaints about AMC are valid.

But I don't want AMC to fail because if that huge theater chain goes bust and all of its locations close the negative ripple effects will go way beyond AMC, adversely affecting other kinds of businesses in hundreds of local economies across the nation. Commercial movie theaters are important pieces in local brick and mortar commercial districts. People leave the home to eat out, shop, socialize and be entertained. Movie theaters are a big part of that.

Given the current business climate and what is likely to follow after the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic finally ends, I think it is very likely if AMC goes out of business very few of the chain's locations will be re-opened by others. Even before the pandemic AMC was quietly shutting down some of the locations it acquired in buy-outs of chains like Carmike. If AMC fails it will result in more than a few communities being left with zero first run movie theaters. Here in Lawton that is a real possibility. The modest 12-plex we had in Central Mall has been closed for months; there is zero sign anyone will ever re-open that location. Our Patriot 13 theater is newer and has a 500+ seat IMAX house. If any theater operation was going to acquire and re-open that location it would likely be another big chain, such as Regal. All of the big theater chains are financially strapped and not looking to expand at all. If anything they're going to be looking for under-performing theaters to close.

Independent theater operators and small regional chains can do a better job than the giant outfits like AMC and Regal. But they don't have the same level of clout. With the way the theatrical platform is under assault by movie distributors that doesn't bode well for someone looking to open a new, independent movie theater. We have an old 2nd run theater in town, the Vaska. The people running that theater have gone through a never-ending struggle to stay operational. They already get screwed badly by movie distributors. But they've gone through pure hell trying to get financing. It took a community funding drive and a lot of angry phone calls from residents for one of the local banks to relent and help them finance the purchase of a digital projector. The theater would have closed for good otherwise. And this went on in a local market of over 100,000 people. Smaller towns aren't going to fare so well.

[Martin McCaffery]

Looks like AMC is the next Game Stop
https://twitter.com/i/events/1354461156258156549

Shares of AMC Entertainment surge more than 200% as feverish buying continues from retail traders
On Wednesday morning, AMC Entertainment shares increased by more than 200% during premarket trading and hit more than $15 per share, nearly seven times the average analyst price target. AMC joins GameStop, BlackBerry, Bed Bath & Beyond, Etsy and a list of heavily shorted stocks that have recently seen eye-opening gains thanks to encouragement from individual investors on Reddit’s WallStreetBets. Hedge funds that are short on the other side have been rushing to cover their losses.

[Leo Enticknap]

And it's now front page news on the Daily Wail! Further discussion would risk getting political, but suffice as to say that these stock shorting pranksters seem to have spooked the powers that be.

[Bobby Henderson]

Funny thing: some lawmakers on both the left and right (Ted Cruz and AOC) are in agreement that it is bullshit for individual "retail traders" to be locked out of buying and selling a certain company's stock while big institutions can continue buying and selling the same thing.

I have a fairly low opinion of various kinds of short term speculative trading practices, such as short selling a company to make a fast buck. But that kind of game has been played for a long time with big financial firms. Since it's all legal it seems only fair for the "little guys" to be able to do the same thing now that technology has made it much easier for individual traders to do so.

One thing is certain: there are going to be some big losers with this fad trading going on with shares of GameStop, AMC and some other companies.

[Leo Enticknap]

Yup - the Reddit / RobinHood folks tweaked the establishment's collective nose, the establishment fought back, and the politicians on both sides of the aisle whose schtick is being anti-swamp had a rare moment of agreement.

Trying to bring this back to topic a little, I suspect that the activists who got stuck with a small quantity AMC stock will likely fare better than those with a similar amount of GameStop ... if NYC and LA are allowed to open back up in the next few months.

[Martin McCaffery]

Apparently some people still have faith in AMC, they raised $917 million on Monday:
https://variety.com/2021/film/global...ng-1234891278/

Their stock dropped today about 50%, but they are still at $20 a share compared to $2.01 a month ago. And an equity firm converted a $600 million bond into equity, knocking $600 million off of AMC's debt.
https://variety.com/2021/film/news/a...it-1234894768/

Someone other the the reddit gang are making money, at least in the short term.

[Mike Blakesley]

Independent theater operators and small regional chains can do a better job than the giant outfits like AMC and Regal. But they don't have the same level of clout.

It's true we have no clout, but I did get a small amount of pleasure over the past year from thinking that some weeks, my theater was outgrossing the 24 AMC screens in Billings.

[Frank Cox]

And I'm one twenty-sixth of the Canadian movie exhibition industry.

Never thought I'd get to say that.

[Martin McCaffery]

We take our little victories where we find them, no matter how petty

[Leo Enticknap]

And I'm one twenty-sixth of the Canadian movie exhibition industry.

That has to be worth a commemorative plaque in your entrance lobby, surely: "On January 29, 2021..."